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Irish View 29 September 2007
Pattern Horses
Ursumman
was never going when pulled up in the Kerry National at Listowel
last week but that 3m trip was always going to be beyond him and he
would look the one to beat if restored to his best for the 2m4f
conditions chase at Navan. Since going over fences, the 8yo’s
record at 2m4f reads:212321 and with all of his 5 career wins coming
on a decent surface he is sure to be suited by the good to firm
ground. His main market rival is Pacolet who looked an unlucky loser
when making a crucial blunder at Galway last time but Pat Flynn’s
charge is yet to register a win in 12 runs on left-handed tracks.
He’s also something of an early summer horse that has never won
after June in his 5 seasons.
US
Ranger is a fascinating runner in the Waterford Testimonial Stakes
over 6f and Aidan O’Brien’s new inmate has often shaped as if a
drop to sprint distances would suit. The form of his run behind
Tariq has worked out well and he has a good draw in stall 5 but
he’s been off the track since June and one wonders why connections
have chosen to run him in such a relatively unimportant race. He’s
likely to go off at cramped odds and can be opposed with Evening
Time who has a brilliant record over the 6f trip that
reads : 1112. Kevin Prendergast’s filly was suited by neither
ground nor trip in the Matron Stakes and can make a bold bid from
stall 2 on Sunday. Any rain would be in her favour.
The
chances of Mooretown
Lady putting her head in front in the 60-100 1m handicap
at the Curragh are slim and none as she’s a jade who has won just
once in 14 career starts. This shouldn’t dissuade us from backing
her in the place market though as she’s got an impressively
consistent record at the track of : 22393. The only unplaced run
came on really soft ground and on her other good runs the filly has
chased home decent sorts like Paris Winds, Kyles Bay and Namaya.
With 20 runners declared for this event, there will be 4 places
available and she’ll be very hard to keep out of the frame.
Formlines
The Cork bumper won by Quintana in April could hardly have
worked out better with the winner landing a maiden hurdle on her
subsequent start and the runner-up Logans Run winning a valuable
event at the Punchestown Festival next time. The fourth, fifth and
eighth have all done their bit for the form and with this in mind
the third horse home, Mr
Muji, is likely to take all the beating in the last race
on Navan’s card. The 4yo son of Mujadil is well-suited by a decent
surface and though his high-profile connections of Noel Meade and
Nina Carberry mean he’s not a big price, the tissues should have
him in a bit shorter. It will take a good performance from one of
the newcomers to beat him.
Katiyra would have been a strong fancy for the C.L. Weld Park
Stakes at the Curragh if taking her chance but it is hoped the horse
she beat on her sole outing in a Leopardstown maiden, Toirneach,
can land the spoils in what looks a very open renewal. The form of
that race has worked out terrifically well and Toirneach did her bit
by landing a 7f maiden over tomorrow’s course and distance in
gritty fashion two weeks ago. She only won by a short head from
Greatwallofchina but there were plenty of reasons to be encouraged
by her run. The second had been well punted by connections to land a
good maiden at the York Ebor meeting, suggesting he’s above
average, and the front two pulled 5ls clear of the third. Toirneach
was also beating colts on this occasion and had to overcome a bad
draw. She’s got a better pitch tomorrow and can be expected to be
up in the van from the very start and make a bold bid for home.
Other
Notables
Dandy Nicholls has a few raiders declared for the Curragh on
Sunday but none are more interesting than Tournedos
in the opening 5f handicap. He gets in here off a mark of 89 and
having been rated as high as 105 on a number of occasions, he could
well be thrown in. The 5yo has been out of form for much of the
season but shaped with encouragement against some decent sorts like
Philaharmonic, Bond City and Hoh Hoh Hoh last time and a
reproduction of that form could see him go close. It wasn’t that
long ago that he was beating the likes of Desert Lord and Majestic
Missile in listed races and despite being something of Chester
specialist, he has run well over course and distance behind Dandy
Man last July. His draw in box 2 will help and his biggest danger
could well be Ms Victoria who looks well enough treated on the form
of her latest run.
The Group 2 Beresford Stakes has a nice shape to it from a
betting perspective with the likely favourite Lizard Island looking
well-exposed at this stage and Curtain Call having attitude
questions to answer as he’s still a maiden after 3 starts. Lisvale
would have his chance if the ground deteriorated but Bruges
looks the one to beat despite being off the track almost 3 months.
David Myerscough’s charge was an impressive winner last time at
Leopardstown, showcasing a fine turn-of-foot in the process. The
step in trip should be ideal and he goes on any ground and with his
connections lacking a big profile, he could well go off a bigger
price than he should.
Monteriggioni
achieved the rare feat of finishing last without coming off the
bridle on his most recent start when enduring a luckless run behind
Little Eye at Leopardstown. John Geoghegan’s 5yo is a big hard to
win with but his only victory came at this track and is worth a bet
at a double-figure price. Well-drawn in 18, Pat Smullen is an
eye-catching jockey booking and this doesn’t look the strongest of
races despite there being 20 runners.
Meeting
Review – Listowel 22/9/07
Positives:
Bluebyyou
was a well-backed favourite to win the valuable 2m4f handicap hurdle
and was just beginning to make a move when coming to grief four out.
His jumping had been far from foot-perfect but the three-time bumper
winner looks on a favourable mark of 102, largely due to his amateur
rider’s ineptitude in his first four outings over hurdles and is
well up to winning races over sticks. Tucker Geraghty’s Powerberry ran in some decent bumpers
during 2006 behind the likes of Glencove Marina and Imperial
Commander before winning at Down Royal and he shaped with plenty of
encouragement on his first run since December when a good second to
Tom Doodle in the maiden hurdle. Like the previous eye-catcher, he
appeals as the type to improve for more experienced handling than
Russ Geraghty’s and is up to winning a maiden when the ground
isn’t bottomless.
Negatives:
There was sustained market support for Silver
Tide in the opening 1m maiden with many punters believing
she’d been a non-stayer behind Instant Sparkle at Galway. The
money stayed in the bookies’ satchels though as Christy
Grassick’s 3yo ran a lifeless race in fourth and with her now
having been tried on a variety of ground and trips, she’s going to
be hard to win with. Makishma
has received a negative mention in this column before and the 5yo
mare confirmed herself as one of the dodgiest performers in training
in the 7f handicap. Chris Geoghegan arrived into the short Listowel
straight with a double-handful and it looked a case of ‘how
far?’ but his mount soon downed tools and pulled herself up to
such a degree she didn’t even finish placed. Charlie Swan showed
his training skills to bring Drunken
Disorderly back off a break of 524 days to win the
feature novice chase and the level of form puts the Gigginstown 7yo
right up there with the best Irish novices we’ve seen so far. The
Grade 3 novice chase over 2m4f at Tipperary on October 7th
was mooted afterwards and while he won’t be inconvenienced by a
step in trip, he looks a prime candidate to bounce and should be
opposed there at a likely short price. The fact that he regressed
from a first time out hurdle win over some smart opponents in
Laetitia and Iktitaf in October 2005 strongly suggests that his next
race will come too soon for him.
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