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Irish View 15 September 2007
Curragh
Saturday
Forthright
is one of my favourite horses in training and Mark Loughnane’s
dual-purpose star looks the best bet of the weekend in the Crown
Paints Premier Handicap over 10f. The 6yo ran twice at the Galway
Festival, going down narrowly early on in the week before landing
the valuable Guinness Handicap over 12f on the Friday of the
meeting. His margin of victory on that occasion was a mere short
head but that doesn’t reveal the depth of his superiority. He
showed bags of speed to kick clear entering the straight and put the
race to bed only to idle in front. A hike of 5lbs for the win looks
far from harsh and this drop back to a mile and a quarter is
unlikely to be a problem for this smooth
traveller.
Since then he’s gone to land a decent handicap hurdle at the
Tralee Festival in good style, again
travelling
strongly and not doing much when hitting the front. Forthright is
really thriving at the moment and odds of around 7/1 this morning
seriously underestimate his chance in what looks a weak race for the
grade. The field contains a number of horses with dubious attitudes
in Mombassa, Vincenzio Galilei, Ridge Boy and Banna Man while the
likes of Absolute Image, Tango Foxtrot, Worldly Wise and Baron
De’L all appear in the grasp of the handicapper. Siege Of Ennis is
possible danger but he too is struggling to get his head in front
and I’ll be disappointed if Forthright doesn’t go very close.
The Irish Leger has been a nightmare race of Aidan O’Brien
but master of Ballydoyle be very disappointed if he can’t land the
pot this time as he saddles the front two in the market, including
the long odds-on favourite Yeats. The dual Ascot Gold Cup winner has
obvious form claims but I’m not convinced the race conditions
totally suit him. A mile and three quarters is a bit on the sharp
side for him and the 6yo may well be vulnerable to a pacier rival at
the trip. His last three runs at the Curragh have resulted in
defeat, including the two most recent renewals of this event, and
there has to be a concern that his form tends to tail off as the
season goes on. With the exception of his juvenile season when Yeats
had just one run in September, he is yet to register a win past the
month of August in 4 starts. There is also the possibility that his
main target is the Melbourne Cup and a win here would result in a
penalty for Australia so my strong preference is for his stablemate Scorpion.
Scorpion’s form at mile in a half is at least as good as Yeats’,
and includes a pair of Group 1 victories and a narrow defeat to
Hurricane Run in the Irish Derby. Both his breeding and win in the
2005 St. Leger suggests he could well improve for this trip, as does
his somewhat lazy running style. His last run in the King George is
easily forgiven as he was there to make the pace for Dylan Thomas
and as long as a similar role isn’t planned today, he looks to
hold a leading chance. Certainly, he should not be seven times the
price of Yeats.
Pattern
Horses
Benbaun
returns to site of his greatest triumphs for the 6f St Jovite
Renaissance Stakes and it will take a serious performance from one
of his rivals to lower the colours of horse whose track record
reads:21122111. Mark Wallace’s star would be a Group 1 winning
sprinter were such a race run at the Curragh and while 5f is his
best trip, he was hugely impressive winner over this course and
distance in May. He may look a short price at around 5/4 but given
that he’s beaten the second favourite Moss Vale pointless on their
last two encounters, it could well be fair value. Moss Vale
struggles to get his head in front these days and the biggest danger
could well be Prime Defender who will enjoy this return to 6f and is
well-drawn in stall one.
I’m convinced Grantsville has been running in the
wrong conditions for most of this season and Tom McCourt’s mare
finally gets a chance to prove her worth in the final race at the
Curragh on Saturday, a 10f handicap for horses rated 50-80. The
5yo’s record over 10f on yielding ground or faster reads:121293
with the sole disappointing run coming when she sweated up badly on
her first run for the yard since arriving from Germany. It was in
her native country that she won a listed race from Sir Mark
Prescott’s Succession (who herself won a listed race afterwards)
and her mark of 77 looks fair here. The form of her slightly unlucky
third to Aqraan at Down Royal in June also looks good, especially
since the second Jalmira won the Cambridgeshire a fortnight ago.
This represents are marked drop in class and with Wayne Lordan
booked for the ride she has a leading chance.
Meeting
Review – Leopardstown, September 8th
Positives:
Dermot Weld has a smart team of juveniles on his hands but few
have been more impressive than Chinese
White who race out a 6l winner in the opening maiden. The
Dalakhani filly was well-backed beforehand and was ridden in the
manner of a good horse, making all and pulling away easily in the
straight. She looks a smart filly in the making and will have no
problem going up in trip. Miss
Gorica and the well-backed Empirical
Power were among a number of horses who went off too fast
in front in the 7f Premier Handicap and paid the price. The fact
that the pair finished third and sixth respectively in a race that
was dominated by closers suggests they are better than the bare
form. The way the Champion Stakes was run suited Duke
Of Marmalade but even so this was career best run from
the son of Danehill and a Group 1 win could well be within his
compass. He won’t mind 1m4f either. Monteriggioni
achieved the rare feat of finishing last without coming off the
bridle in the closing 9f handicap when enduring a nightmare run up
the rails. It’s impossible to say he would have won but Fran Berry
turned into the straight with a double handful and simply had
nowhere to go. This run can be totally forgotten.
Negatives:
The form of the maiden Maidin
Moch finished third in last time had been given a few
nice boosts but she failed to build on the promise of that run when
trailing home over 7f here. She refused to settle and may not be one
to trust. Arch
Swing has no such attitude questions but she simply
isn’t as good as I thought and was a disappointing third in the
Matron Stakes. Everything looked in her favour here and she just
keeps managing to get beaten. The fact that she met some trouble
means she’s likely to be overrated in the betting next time.
Pointers:
Arch
Rebel ran a fine race to finish second to Hearthstead
Dream in the Kilternan Stakes on ground that was too fast for him.
That took his course record
to:21313061241532 and there could well be a race for him here on
softer ground before the end of the season.
Tony
Keenan
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