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19 July 2007
Leopardstown
Preview –
19/8/07
Handicap
Blot?
The
‘getting out’ stakes at Leopardstown, a 0-80 9f handicap for
three-year-olds and upwards, has all the appearances of a very
competitive affair with 22 declared runners, but I’ll be
disappointed if Satu doesn’t come out
on top and he looks the best bet of the weekend by some distance.
Quite how David Myerscough’s 3yo gets in here off a mark of 80 is
a mystery to me. The form of his maiden fourth at Gowran in May has
been advertised on numerous occasions and he got within 5ls of
quality animals like Eyeshal (now rated 104) and Sorolla (now rated
103). Satu followed this up with a very easy win in a Curragh race
that looked weak at the time, but the second Emily Blake has since
won two handicaps impressively and is rated 85 while the third
Strike One is also a maiden winner. In the interim, my fancy ran a
good third in a Premier Handicap over today’s course and distance
and this is a massive drop in class. Well-drawn in stall 8, the son
of Marju is proven on bad ground and while the likes of Valamareha,
Prince Livius, Raise Your Heart and Caltra Princess would all of
interest in a normal handicap, none have anything like as much scope
off their marks as Satu. He could well be a handicap blot.
Form Lines
The
7f maiden run on the Friday of Derby weekend was just about the best
race of its kind in
Ireland
this year and Domestic
Fund can provide
another boost to the form of Lisvale’s win. Dermot Weld’s charge
is an extremely well-bred sort, being a full-brother to 4-time Group
1 winner Refuse To Bend, and he went down by the narrowest of
margins at
Galway
last time. The Moyglare colt goes in the 3.15 at Leopardstown where
he faces a number of interesting rivals, not a least a pair of
unraced horses from the O’Brien and Oxx camps in the form of
Mikhail Fokine and Kilshannig respectively. However, for a debutante
to beat an experienced runner with the form of Domestic Fund, they
would need to be well above average as well as having plenty of
street smarts. Houston Dynimo looks the main danger on form but the
Weld colt has already beaten him twice and there is no reason why he
should reverse the form.
Pattern
Horse
Fracas has been in fine form in lesser pattern races this season, winning a
listed and Group 3 events on his last two outings. Both those wins
came at 10f, a trip at which the 5yo has an impressive record that
reads:1112211 with the only defeats coming to the King George winner
Dylan Thomas and Septimus. However, the David Wachman-trained colt
has really struggled when upped in trip with his record beyond 10f
reading:4728475 and he is well worth taking on the Ballyroan Stakes
over a mile and a half. Finding a single horse to beat him is
difficult but at
forecast odds of 6/4 he is well worth laying
especially as he carries a 3lb penalty here. Of his rivals, Nick’s
Nikita is a consistent sort around this trip and while Arch Rebel
has been out of form this season, he does love the track. However,
his biggest danger may well come from the unexposed 3yos to which he
has to concede weight. Mores Wells looked very unlucky in the Gordon
Stakes at Goodwood last time and will be a major player if getting
this trip. Kevin Prendergast’s runner is already a dual course
winner. Dermot Weld’s 3yo Prince Erik is another fascinating
entry, who produced a run when sixth in the Irish Derby on his first
run outside maiden company. Of all the runners, he has the greatest
scope for improvement with just 4 runs under his belt and he could
be the one to rattle Fracas’ cage.
Form
Picks?
Both
Haatef and Timarwa appear to hold leading chances in the other
pattern races, but my feelings towards the pair are contrasting to
say the least. Haatef looked a really smart juvenile last term when running a cracking
fourth in the Dewhurst on just his second run but none of his three
runs in 2007 have got within 10lbs of that form and he just has to be laid at odds
of around 11/10.
The Prendergast colt has an official mark of 116 which almost
certainly flatters him and though he has won his last two races
easily, the calibre of opposition he faced in both events was
moderate. The Desmond Stakes will provide him with a much stiffer
test and he also has to contend with the mile trip again for the
first time since the 2,000
Guineas
when he shaped like a non-stayer. Soft ground and the likelihood of
a decent pace are hardly going to help him get home and he also
faces a few smart rivals in the shape of Danehill Music, Deauville
Vision and She’s Our Mark. At the likely odds, he looks a lay.
Timarwa
is expected to be sent off at a similar price in the Hurry Harriet
and on the form book it’s hard to see anything challenging the Oxx
filly. The daughter of Timarida landed a Curragh maiden in
impressive fashion back in May before finishing fourth in a pair of
Group 1 events and this represents a significant drop in class. Her
last run was over 12f in the Irish Oaks and this drop back to nine
and a half furlongs should suit ideally as she hasn’t really been
settling over further. Her main rivals have it all to do with Uimhir
A Haon being well held on the Oaks form and Arkadina having only won
a handicap off 70 last time. Offbeat Fashion and Baby Blue Eyes will
like the ground but lack the class of Timarwa and I expect her to
deliver on her vast potential by registering her first pattern win
here. One horse who could well be worth a play in the place market
is Bon Nuit
from the in-form Jessica Harrington yard. The 5yo is a little hard
to win with but has made the frame in all 3 of her runs in listed
company in
Ireland
, including over course and distance last October. While Timarwa
look certain to be there at the death, a few of the other fancied
runners have serious questions to answer on the ground and at the
trip, and she could well upstage her more fashionable rivals by
running into a place.
Tony
Keenan
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