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21 July 2007
Ante-Post Focus
The action on the
Irish front is understandably low-key this weekend with preparations
afoot for the bumper Galway Festival on Monday week. A number of
firms have issued prices for the meeting's feature events, the Plate
and Hurdle, during the week and now seems as good a time as any to
try to seek out some ante-post value.
The Galway Plate, a
2m6f handicap chase run on Wednesday August 1st, has some pretty
strong past trends and basically you're looking for a horse aged
between 7 and 9 who is relatively unexposed over fences, carries
less than 11-0 and is proven over the trip or further. Runners who
have previous form at the course should also be respect, as Galway
is very much a specialists' track with its tight turns and stiff
uphill finish.
Christy Roche has by
far the best record among the current batch of Irish trainers in the
Plate with a pair of winners and two places from his last 5 runners
in the race. His yard has been in flying form recently and it's hard
to crib Cool Running's position at the top of the market. The JP
McManus-owned 7yo has won his last 3 starts over fences but there
are a couple of concerns. Firstly, he was well beaten in his only
run in a handicap to date off 121 at the Punchestown and yet runs
off 130 here. Yes, he has improved in the interim but his form lacks
substance as he's been beating poor batch of summer novices.
Secondly, he was not even the yard's first choice for the race, a
role intended for Kadiskar before he suffered a setback. In fact,
McManus' racing manager Frank Berry reported serious concerns over
Cool Running's ability to handle the rigours of this race after his
last win and at odds of around 8/1 he is passed over despite his
stable's fine record in the race.
This is not to say
that JP McManus isn't going to complete back-to-back triumphs in the
Plate after Far From Trouble's 2006 win, as he looks to hold a
leading chance with On The Other Hand.
Charlie Swan's 7yo is a bit of quirky customer who tend to be off
the bridle early in his races but he is generally consistent, only
once out of the first four in eleven starts since last June. His
running style suits tracks with stiff uphill finishes, as evidenced
by his wins at Navan and Sligo, and it is significant that he is two
from two at Galway, including a course and distance success last
September. He's been in good form so far this summer, including when
winning a decent race at Killarney in May, and the form is working
out with the second and fifth both winning their next starts. Since
then, he's been kept going with two nice spins on the flat and he
looks very interesting off 9-04 here. That would leave him 6lbs out
of the weights but capable 5lb claimer Denis Hogan is likely to take
the ride and has already ridden him to 3 of his 5 career wins. His
trainer has an impressive 38% strikerate with his chasers at Galway
and everything looks in place for a big run. 16/1 looks a big
each-way price.
A few of the others at
the top of the market just have to be opposed. Pacolet has always
been something of a soft touch, and has disappointed on his last 2
runs at this meeting. Sir Frederick isn't always a sound jumper and
is unproven over this trip while Emotional Moment faces a big task
on what will be just his third chase start. Conna Castle has bags of
ability but hasn't really put it all together and I wouldn't be
rowing into to him at 12/1 off the back of a win in an egg-and-spoon
race at Killarney. Ursumman has placed in the race twice and is a
terrific trier but he just doesn't see out the trip and On The Net
often finds one too good.
For all that, this
race has some strong previous patterns and there is one horse who
can possibly defy them - Ansar. Dermot Weld's track specialist (his
form figures at Galway read:3111115112) will again be lumbered with
top-weight but he won with 11-9 in 2005 and was a close second off
11-10 last year. I suspect that he caught a tartar last year in Far
From Trouble, and with the exception of On The Other Hand there
doesn't appear to be a similarly well-treated rival in the field his
time round. As such, quotes of 10/1 are worth an each-way bet as
it's hard to see him finishing outside the frame. Though now eleven,
Ansar is still unexposed over fences, having had just 10 chase
starts, and he had a very encouraging run on the flat at Killarney
during the week. He obviously faces a mammoth task here but the
Racing Post Ratings have only two horses in the field better treated
at the weights and we simply know that none of the other runners
will thrive in the conditions as he will. A very uncomplicated and
genuine sort, he is sure to have the assistance of a leading pilot
and he has to be in the shake-up.
The Galway Hurdle, a
2m handicap hurdle run on Thursday August 2nd, appears a lot less
clear-cut at this point and my initial impression are that the
market leaders have to be taken on. Farmer Brown is a bit of a
talking horse following his unlucky defeat behind Westlake on the
flat recently and his recent form in conditions hurdles isn't good
enough to win here. He'll be lumbered with at least 10-9, and only
one horse has carried more since 1997. Serve Time faces similar
problems with 10-12 on his back, and the fact that he's 0/2 in
handicaps and 4/5 in other races suggests he's not well-treated.
Imperial Rose represents the feared Tony Martin team, but she was
unable to win a much lesser race at Killarney during the week and
isn't good enough. Martin has a few other contenders with Hegrid and
Top The Charts, but the first-named looks high in the weights while
the latter isn't too fond of winning. Leg Spinner could be his best
chance but he may want further.
Consequently, I'm
interested in a pair of outsiders but waiting for the day of the
race may well be the best policy as they are unlikely to be any
shorter than they are now and could well offer massive value on the
exchanges. I'm convinced Robbie Burns missed a trick by running Davorin
in the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival
instead of the valuable Menolly Homes Handicap Hurdle at the same
meeting, but to be fair he vindicated his handler's decision by
running a good second to Aitmatov. That was the first time the 6yo
had his favoured fast ground over sticks, and he would surely have
went close off 116 in the big handicap but a current mark of 123 may
not be overly harsh especially looking back at some of his form over
the winter. Back in November, he got within a length of Bob's Pride
(now rated 138 and considered a possible Champion Hurdle contender)
and Davorin would have been just as inconvenienced by the heavy
ground as his rival on that occasion. Two miles is likely to prove
his optimum trip, and he is a lively outsider.
Another who could run
well at a big price is Forthright.
Now with Daniel Mark Loughnane, the 6yo gelding was previously
trained by Tony Carroll in England where he was sent off the 13/2
favourite for the big handicap hurdle on Grand National day. He ran
a little flat on that occasion but his overall profile is
progressive and he looks to have been let in light here off 113,
considering he won off 111 as recently as February, beating King's
Quay who won the Summer Hurdle off 128 today and wouldn't be without
his chance if turning up. I suspect Forthright has been acquired
with this race in mind, and the fact that he's been ridden by the
top jockeys in both codes, Ruby Walsh and Kieren Fallon, on his two
Irish starts to date suggests he's got plenty of ability as
Loughnane is hardly the country's best known trainer. His last run,
a good second to Caheerloch at the Curragh over 10f, was very
encouraging and he is an intriguing contender for this race.
Pattern Horses
While I can understand
the enthusiasm for the classy Haatef in tomorrow's Listed Belgrave
Stakes at Fairyhouse, there can be little doubt that Kevin
Prendergast's three-year-old faces a massive task against Confuchias
and in no way deserves to be an odds-on shot. Confuchias' record
with cut in the ground reads:3111, with his only defeat coming on
his racecourse debut. Frank Ennis' 3yo colt is a dual Group 3 winner
and his win against hardened older English sprinters at Newcastle
under a penalty was almost unheard of feat; Irish sprinters simply
don't win English pattern races and in fact it's usually the
opposite with the raiders dominating our top events. The son of Cape
Cross is a proven class sprinter who loves this really bad ground,
and has the services of Johnny Murtagh, the best sprint jockey in
the land. Haatef, on the other hand, has never even raced on slower
than good-soft and his American breeding suggests it will hardly be
ideal. His fourth-place finish in last year's Dewhurst was a hell of
a performance, but he hasn't come close to that in 2 runs this
season and his form over a mile in the 2,000 Guineas isn't really
much better than that of Confuchias in the Irish equivalent. All in
all, Confuchias looks a stand-out at the tissue price of 9/4 and it
will be disappointing if he doesn't come home in front.
Meeting Review: Leopardstown -
18/6/07
Positives: Satu ran a
cracker on his handicap debut, considering he was taking on hardened
older horses on just his fifth start. Unlike the first and second,
he came from well off the pace to grab third and a step up in trip
won't be problem. He won't take a massive hike in the weights for
this as he was beaten 6ls but he's well up to winning off his mark.
Joanna Morgan's Raise Your Heart
landed a first handicap success off 50 in a 1m2f event and he did it
in impressive fashion - he could be well up to going in again under
a penalty. Amy Kathleen Parsons did the steering and the pair are a
trainer/jockey combo to note. He runs in the last race at Fairyhouse
on Sunday and holds a leading chance.
Negatives: Lafuar was
a heavily backed favourite in the nursery (7/2 in the morning into
7/4) but was a well-beaten fourth. He had already won on this ground
and seemingly had the best form behind The Bogberry and Rainbow
Crossing so this suggests he's pretty useless. Rainbow
Crossing let herself down badly in the preliminaries,
kicking out, sweating profusely and going very freely to post. This
was mulish performance and she's not one to trust and you'd really
have to watch her again in parade ring before backing her.
Ironically, a horse she trounced LTO Triskel was an easy winner of
the race, confirming she didn't run her race. Stack's Hoffman
looked sure to win a handicap when just going down to Tamimi's
History over 10f here a few weeks back but he ran a second flat race
in a row here and looks a big softie when he can't get on the lead -
he's not up to winning a Premier Handicap. Curtain
Call was a well-backed favourite to confirm the promise
of his Curragh 6th to Lisvale in a mile juvenile maiden but he
didn't look the most genuine in finishing second, wandering off a
straight line with an awkward head-carriage.
Pointers: The Stack 2yos continue in fabulous form with Triskel
winning the listed race - 8 of their 23 juveniles have won with a
level stakes profit of over €18. 25/1 shot Anna's Rock looked a
no-hoper in the 9f Stillorgan Premier Handicap but Jim Bolger's
filly ran a cracker to take second. Her trainer has a fabulous
record in the race and his runners should be noted. At Killarney, Bold
Bibi continued the good run of the Halford yard; 5 of
their last 18 runners have won and it's the best form they've been
in all year.
Tony
Keenan
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