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Down Royal host the feature race of their flat programme on Saturday in the Specsavers Ulster Derby, a 1m5f handicap that's worth almost €50,000 to the winner. It looks a hot renewal, with last year's winner Kempes heading the 14 runners with 10-2. Frances Crowley's charge ran a cracker last time, when going down to the progressive King Rama at the Curragh. The 4yo is ultra-consistent, winning 4 of his 7 career starts, and never finishing worse than second. Past trends suggest his welter-burden will make life very difficult here. Couple this with the fact that he's a candidate to bounce after a big run off a long break, and it may be better to look towards the bottom of the handicap. Certainly, that is where all the recent winners of the race have come from with no horse carrying more than 8-9 to victory in the last 9 years. It has also paid to concentrate on the younger horses with none older than four winning since 1997. The likely favourite, Aidan O'Brien's Song Of Hiawatha, rests just over the weight margin with 8-10, but either way I can't have the recent Navan winner here. His mark of 98 looks ludicrously high, especially as it was achieved in a Navan conditions race, on a line through his stable mate Red Rock Canyon, who looks an utter dodge. He was allowed to go off a 16/1 outsider of five on that occasion, which tells you where he ranks in the Ballydoyle pecking order and both the runner-up and third have let the form down badly since.

Far more interesting is Willie Mullins' Temlett on 8-4, a 3yo who has done little wrong since returning from his winter break. He started 2007 with a third place finish in an ultra-hot Ballinrobe maiden won by the progressive Vision Of Grandeur, and the race also threw up recent winners like Washington Poste and Consulate. From there, he has won twice, including in a 10f Leopardstown handicap that often produces a decent type of horse. The second that night, Tamimi's History, has franked the form by winning since and with both his siblings' best form being over a mile and half, he looks set to be well suited by this trip. With names like Michael O'Brien, Joe Crowley and Oliver Brady among the recent winners of this event, it's obviously a race that jumps handlers target and Willie Mullins could well have added his name to the list by Saturday afternoon. That the yard was in good form with a winner from their only runner at Limerick on Friday evening is just a bonus. Those looking for a live outsider could do a lot worse than Tim Doyle's Certainlei, a 4yo filly who also fits the weight trends carrying just 8-4. By Definite Article, she is certainly bred for stamina and she seemed to improve markedly for the step up to 1m4f at Tramore last time, when running out an easy winner from Charlene. Doyle certainly has his horses in fine form this season, with his older runners hitting the mark 20% of the time and Certainly could well outrun her big price under Rory Cleary.

Pattern Horses

Despite finishing third and fourth respectively, Another Jayjay has been a little disappointing in his last two starts at the Curragh over 10f. However, Mick Halford's 5yo free-going style means he's always going to struggle to get home over middle distances and he is worth another chance in the mile handicap (2.55) at Gowran Park on Sunday. Outside maiden company, his record at 8f reads: 211 and he will be re-united with Rory Cleary who partnered him to his sole success of the season at Killarney. I expect Cleary to do exactly what he did on that occasion by allowing Another Jayjay to bowl along in front, and it is hoped that his ample speed will let him make the best of his way home. There is plenty of rain forecast over the coming days, but soft ground won't be a problem for this son of Grand Lodge.

Form Lines

It was difficult to be anything other than disappointed with Warsaw's flop in the Norfolk Stakes on Thursday, but if the form of his Leopardstown maiden is anything to go by it won't be long before the Danehill Dancer colt is bouncing back. That race, run over 6f on May 7th, looks a hot event with the both the winner and runner-up Irish Jig winning listed races since and the fourth home, Dermot Weld's Artic Cry, breaking his maiden from a subsequent winner next time. As such, the horse to note is the third, Mr Medici trained by Kevin Prendergast. Mr Medici was making his debut on that occasion, and had little luck in running when getting checked at a crucial stage. Despite this, he pulled 2 lengths clear of Artic Cry in fourth. The son of Medicean is well entered up in some of the top juvenile events, including both the Phoenix and National Stakes, and it will take a high-class horse to beat him on his next start, assuming he makes the normal improvement from his first run.

Trainer Trends

Meath trainer Ger Lyons landed his first Group 2 success when Elletelle took the Queen Mary at the Royal Meeting, and an SP of 20/1 suggested that it was something of a shock result. However, anyone who'd been following the yard with their English raiders in 2007 was sure to have been on, as Lyons has managed 3 wins from 8 runners, with only 1 horse finishing outside the front three. They were, in date order:

May 5^th City Of Tribes Chester, 5f 3yo Handicap Won at 9/2

May 18^th Howya Now Kid Newbury, 6f 3yo Listed 3^rd at 15/2

May 26^th City Of Tribes Haydock, 6f 3yo Listed 3^rd at 17/2

June 1^st Irish Jig Epsom, 6f 2yo Listed 8^th at 7/2f

June 1^st Howya Now Kid Epsom, 7f 3yo Listed Won at 17/2

June 1^st Little White Lie Epsom, 7f 3yo Handicap 2^nd at 7/1

June 16^th City Of Tribes Sandown, 5f 3yo Listed 2^nd at 13/2

June 20^th Elletelle Ascot, 5f 2yo Group 2 Won at 20/1

This results in a very impressive 38% strike rate, and this looks all the more meritorious when we consider that Lyons has been winning with 10% of his home based runners this term. The best horses in his yard are a mixture of high-class handicappers and lower-grade pattern performers, and Lyons seems to be targeting that best of them at English races these days where there are more opportunities than at home, especially over the sprint distances. Quite simply, until this pattern changes, all his runners in England must be given serious consideration.

Tony Keenan

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