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Irish View - 16 June 2007
Form Lines
The form of the Gowran handicap won by Bahrain
Storm on May 20th has been well-advertised by the
runner-up Tango Foxtrot, who hosed up at Navan afterwards. The
winner was raised just 5lbs for his neck success, but he was value
for far more, as he idles in front. He remains of considerable
interest off a mark of 80. However, it is over hurdles that Bahrain
Storm runs on Saturday and he looks the standout bet of
the weekend at Limerick. Pat Flynn's gelding has come back from a
winter break in great form, and it would be fair to say that he's
been turned inside out, leaving all his previous form well behind.
His record since March reads:13131, with his only defeats coming
when making a bad mistake against Heavenly Blues at Navan and when
third in the Grade one 4yo Hurdle at Punchestown. Looking at
official ratings, one would think Bahrain
Storm has bit on his plate against the likes of Katies
Tutor, Piltown and Miss Mason. Unlike that trio, his mark seriously
underestimates his ability. He is one of the top three or four
juvenile hurdlers in Ireland (admittedly a weak group) and looks a
certainty for a good handicap hurdle off 115. I just hope he doesn't
spoil his mark by winning by too far this weekend. Given his hold-up
style, it's unlikely he will do so.
Trainer Angles
John Oxx can hardly be accused of throwing darts on his English
raids and his record at Royal Ascot is particularly strong with 3
winners at the meeting since 2004, from a very small team of
runners. With Timarwa likely to miss the Ribblesdale in favour of
the Pretty Polly on Irish Derby weekend, Arch
Swing looks set to be his only challenger in the
Coronation Stakes. Oxx won the same event in 1995 with Ridgewood
Pearl and while Arch Swing has yet to scale the heights of that
super filly, her trainer has always regarded her as a Group 1 horse.
She ran a cracker from a bad draw to chase Finsceal Beo in the 1,000
Guineas, and it's worth bearing in mind she came into that race off
the back of an interrupted preparation. Her run in the Irish
equivalent was disappointing, but she ricked herself coming out of
the stalls and the run was too bad to be true. If back to her best
here, and it is unlikely her trainer would be taking her over if she
wasn't, Arch Swing is capable of going very close. Quotes in double
figures seriously underrate her chance. It might be best to wait
until the day of the race for your bet, as she will need fast ground
to show her best form.
Pattern Horses
There'll be any amount of Irish interest at Ascot next week, but
I can't say I'm overly enthusiastic about some of our chances. Yeats
looks a complete certainty for the Gold Cup on the form book, but it
has to be a worry that this will be his third start in six weeks.
Yeats is nigh on unbeatable when fresh, with his record on his first
or second start of the season in each of his years of racing reading
: 111211111. On all his other outings however, his form figures
reads : 94627, including three defeats as favourite. With this in
mind, perhaps he's not the best horse to get stuck into at odds-on.
George Washington is another Ballydoyle hotpot whose form looks a
long way clear of his opponents. If he's at his best he's sure to
win, but that looks a major doubt given his unorthodox preparation.
Horses coming back from stud are few and far between, with Keltos
being the only recent example that springs to mind. The 2002
Lockinge winner was a shadow of his former self on this return, and
George Washington has all sorts of questions to answer. Godolphin's Ramonti
looks a solid alternative, especially given his stable's fine record
in the race. The ex-Italian horse is very effective over a mile on
good ground or faster with his form figures reading : 111111132. His
head second in the Lockinge was very encouraging, on his first
outing for the yard. Quotes of around 5/1 look fair.
Ante-Post Angles
A lot of attention has been given to Christophe Soumillon getting
the ride on Dylan Thomas in the
Prince Of Wales Stakes at the Royal meeting and the Ballydoyle
runner should give a good account of himself, as long as the ground
rides on the fast side. Quotes of around 11/4 look skinny enough
though, especially when you can back the son of Danehill at 7/1 for
the King George at the end of July. Dylan
Thomas really shapes like a 1m4f horse; by far his most
visually impressive performance to date came at that trip in last
year's Irish Derby, when he blitzed a decent field by upwards of
three and half lengths. His defeat of Ouija Board in the Irish
Champion Stakes was better from a form perspective, but Kieren
Fallon had to get very serious with him on that occasion, all the
time looking as if a step back up to 12 furlongs would suit.
Authorized is currently a short-priced favourite for the King
George, but he is likely to take in the Eclipse in the meantime.
That race will be no penalty kick for the Derby winner, as Motivator
found out to his peril, and if he is defeated at Sandown, he may not
even run at Ascot. Either way, his form is not so far clear of Dylan
Thomas to make him an 11/8 shot. The other contenders for the race,
Red Rocks, Youmzain, and Sir Percy, all look a bit behind Dylan
Thomas on last year's form and a big run in the Prince Of
Wales, even in defeat, should see him shorten significantly for a
race that looks tailor-made for him.
Tony
Keenan
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