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Derrinstown preview
13 May 2007
Some top-class racing in Ireland over the weekend,
and most of the attention will be focused on Leopardstown where the
Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial sees a rematch between Ballysax
winner and third Mores Wells and
Macarthur. The event looks hard
to call – Mores Wells holds
the O’Brien runner well on form but there should be plenty of
improvement to come from Motivator’s brother on what will be just
his third start. The presence of Mick Kinane on his stablemate Archipenko
seems to complicate the debate over which is the Ballydoyle first
string and with these questions up in the air this is a race I’ll
be avoiding from a punting perspective. One thing I will be doing is
following the form in future; in recent years this race hasn’t
been a good Derby trial, it’s been THE Derby trial,
producing 3 Epsom and 5 Curragh winners since the turn of the the
millennium. That’s not even to mention the numerous winners of top
Group 1 events like the King George, the Irish Champion Stakes, the
Arc and the Breeders’ Cup Turf the race has thrown up.
The best bet of the weekend looks like Danak
in the last race at Leopardstown, the Amethyst Stakes, a Group 3
over a mile. Readers of this column will soon get used to my massive
respect for the John Oxx yard and I make no apology for championing
Curraghbeg runners. In my opinion, Oxx is not just the best trainer
in Ireland, but the best in Europe and his patient approach tends to
pay dividends. I strongly expect this to be the case with Danak,
a 4yo Aga Khan-owned colt who is unbeaten in 4 starts. His trainer
does keep a few older horses in training but when they are owned by
his principal patron they are invariably worth following. In recent
years, Azamour, Kastoria
and Caradak have fitted this
bill and he reminds me most of the last-named who finished up as a
Group 1 winner when transferring to Godolphin last term. Danak
only scrapped home last time over course and distance from 2 of
today’s rivals but he can be expected to improve significantly
from that first run in 8 months. Decado
was off track for even longer and in fairness he ran a cracker under
a penalty last time but I’m not sure he’ll want to go on this
fast ground again so soon. It put him off the track after Royal
Ascot last term, and all his best form is with cut. Quinmaster
is up to winning a listed race but not against Danak;
he wouldn’t be in love with fast ground either and he’s a
free-going sort who gets keyed up in the preliminaries. The only
other horse in the line-up is Lord Admiral who’s a pig of the
highest order – he’s officially rated 109 and yet has won just
twice in 30 starts. Danak should
be winning this provided he gets ‘firm’ in the going
description.
I also like the look of Oxx’s Timarwa
in the 1m2f maiden. A daughter of Irish Champion Stakes winner Timarida,
this one is well-regarded and produced an amazing performance in
defeat when going down by the minimum to Majestic
Eviction at Navan in October. Having been reluctant to
load, she lost ground at the start only to make very smooth headway
under hands and heels from way back to lead inside the final
furlong. The effort was just too much for her though as her more
experienced rival just got the better of her in a driving finish.
She is taking on a talking horse in Red
Rock Canyon who was three times a beaten odds-on
favourite last term. He’s likely to be the favourite here but
he’s one to take on until he shows he can put his head in front.
The other races look hard to call but keep an eye
out for Grantsville in the 3.25,
if not today then certainly in the future. This 5yo mare won a
listed race in Germany in 2005 from a decent Sir Mark Prescott
runner (won won a listed race soon after) and is very
well-handicapped off a mark of 79. Her first run in Ireland was not
the flop it appeared; she sweated up profusely beforehand and did
well to finish so close in a race that is working out. Her trainer
Tom McCourt is a relative unknown but he shows a level stakes profit
with his older horses at this course. However, she may prove better
dropped to 1m2f and a 7lb claimer doesn’t inspire confidence,
though she has won more races for McCourt than anyone else. The
Group 3 Guineas Trial looks a wide-open affair and the winner
won’t be easily found but I’d be keen to take on the exposed
pair of Alexander Tango and Gaudeamus.
Neither has gone on from their juvenile seasons are vulnerable to an
improver like Thiella, Xinji
or Majestic Eviction.
Killarney host the first day of their 3-day May
meeting on Sunday and 2 horses catch the eye at the Southern venue.
I had Artiste Bay in mind for a
big run in a handicap hurdle at one of the spring festivals in
England but he never made it after flopping at Punchestown on his
penultimate start. He came back after a break to run a fair race at
Punchestown and has a chance here, despite the drop in trip to 2m
being against him. Eoin Griffin’s 5yo simply has to go left-handed
– his record that way around since arriving in Ireland reads:41122
– and is a course winner here. He goes on any ground and could
offer each-way value. Ruby Walsh looks a significant jockey booking
for Five Seven Live in the 2m4f
handicap chase and he should go close on his favoured fast ground.
This is Five Seven Live’s
first run in a handicap, and the hunter chaser looks on a good mark
here of 101. The official handicapper tends to underestimate hunter
chasers when they run in handicaps and though this event has some
fair types for the grade like A Good Excuse,
Derawar and Super
Gale, he might be good enough.
Tony
Keenan
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