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Preview 09 Aug 2008

3.10 Haydock Totesport heritage handicap Good to soft / Soft 10.5F

Kandidate - Top weighted and back in handicaps in which he should ply his trade from now on as he is very exposed and regressing at the moment, Dropped 5lbs from the run at Sandown in which the race wasn't ran at a strong ace that should have suited this horse. Over a furlong more today on a less stiff track with the ground more testing his stamina may not last home under the weight.

Ezdiyaad - Ran far to free and had a high head carriage in the John Smith cup and maybe is still a little inexperienced. Ran well to win in the soft conditions at Newbury that is a strong galloping track over 10F and should be able to last this trip out over a furlong further on a fairly easier galloping Haydock track. The ground with cut in is no problem even though he has a high weight and is going the right way. Needs improvement to win of this mark in a heritage handicap however.

New Guinea - Has decent form at Doncaster for Godolphin and is a mile and half horse so this drop back in trip may be ideal for him if they go hard in the conditions up front as he has been dropped 2lbs since the run in the November Handicap. That was a strong pace race and today is likely to be the same and given it is only a furlong less he should go well in this today providing the ground isn't too tacky.

Greek Envoy - Maybe not quite up to this Heritage handicap class from the top of the handicap but he is still quite unexposed and his handler may still be able to draw some more improvement out from this horse. The run at Ripon was with some give in the ground over further then today's trip at a easier galloping track of Ripon and may well just have the right trip and conditions for this race with a ensured gallop with the front runners in the race. Has been dropped 5lbs in the weight since that run that should give him claims and anymore improvement should see him go well in this tougher class of race. However something lighter weighted could well be the victor over him.

Age of Reason - Another unexposed handicapper and is taking on his elders today for a yard that breed strong staying handicappers that like to battle and they must feel they have a chance today. The run at the Goodwood meeting wasn't a bad one and he could well run a big race as the time of the race was good and even though maybe not the strongest of races at the big meeting they were a unexposed bunch and could continue his improvement to reach the level need to win this. This is a tougher test of stamina and the son of Halling could revel for the longer trip, whether he has learnt enough from the last run is to be seen.

Charlie Tokoyo - Was in fine form this time last season and may not be the force he was 12 months ago and has dropped a lot in the weights since those days last year. There could well be a race for him at York before the season is out and given his times and performances with ground with cut in over that 10F he could well be able to stay this extra trip around Haydock from his current new mark and is one of the best handicapped horses in the field if not the best handicapped horse in the field, Should get the end to end gallop that he needs.

Lucky Dance - unknown customer having plied his trade out in the desert and may be is best avoided on what is his second start in the Uk after not showing much promise last time out and is best watched to get some idea of what he is made off.

Capable Guest - Zetland Gold cup winner of this mark and is one of the most exposed horses in this field, has a chance of this mark against these rivals and even though the Redcar feature handicap wasn't a strong test for the level of the race and won in a sub standard time for class of race. Has claims on the handicap rating but I do have some doubts over his stamina in what should be a end to end gallop in the mud and therefore is best overlooked this time.

Suits Me - One of a few that should take them along and is well suited to this trip and track. The ground is likely to be tougher then when winning here two runs back in a decent time. Likely to be more tackled for the lead he does battle on well and shouldn't be too far away at the finish, however the ground does look against him despite being able to act on it and the way it is likely to be ran the 6lbs higher in the handicap may just be against him as he is pretty exposed as a handicapper.

Drill Sergeant - ran well at Goodwood last time out and Mark Johnston is looking to win this with one of his 3yo handicappers and maybe drill sergeant is the one to take out of the two as his best performance seem to be his maiden winning run at Newcastle in the soft ground in a very good time and providing his ride takes a pull and doesn't get drawn into a battle up front he is well handicapped to go well off a 10lbs higher mark then when he was breaking his maiden tag. The track trip and ground are in his favour and off this mark with still some improvement to come he is capable of taking this handicap in my view.

Cheshire Prince - Looking to complete the hatrick for his handler after back to back wins at Chester in lower class races and he does seem to save his best efforts for that track given the form he has showed on turning tracks and it is unlikely that today's track conditions in a tougher race is likely to be ideal for him and he may well struggle to win in this tougher handicap under a 6lbs rise for that win despite the Chester race at a lower level looking solid enough form.

King's Event - unexposed handicapper for the champion trainer who wont be retaining his prize this season and even though the mile handicap he won at HQ stacks up well it wasn't a solid run race and this tougher class of race which he is no doubt up to his stamina will be tested today. A unexposed profile gives him that dark edge to be backed off if you feel he will stay further of a handicap mark only 1lb higher then he won off. The ground and trip with style of race should give us a strong clue on how well he will stay this trip. The course isn't as tough so there is some positives to draw from that run and if improving for the further trip his handler will get improvement out of him, just a concern his mile form is slightly better then his mile and quarter form. All depends on the price as to whether he is worth the risk.

Wigwam Willie - Ayr specialist and saves all his best runs at that track when the ground is on the soft side. Tougher track then his favoured track and a trip much further then he is use to he is off a 3lbs higher mark then when he won and that looks enough to opposes him today as he looks to get handicapped for the western meeting and a lower class handicap.

Perks - Recorded a better effort when finishing behind a decent sort at Newmarket back in May and maybe hasn't shown much progression despite being a lightly raced 3yo. That run was a mile on good racing ground and they look to maybe find his ideal trip today over another quarter of a furlong, which he is yet to run over. He is 6lbs higher in the handicap and has improvement to come at this level as he recorded a decent enough time over that mile track. Selkirk off springs improve for the step up in trip at a later stage of there careers as a mile is usually ideal for the horse, however John Dunlop has been known to improve them well through out their 3yo days and he could be well ready for this step up in trip with the improvement likely to bridge the gap he needs to win a all age heritage handicap and from foot of the weights he could be very interesting.

My Tissue - Drill Sergeant 9/2, Perks, Charlie Tokyo 6/1, King's Event 8/1, Ezdiyaad 10/1, New Guinea, Greek Envoy 14/1, Suits me, Wigwam Willie 16/1, Age of Reason 20/1, Capable Guest 25/1, Kandidate 33/1, Cheshire Prince 40/1, Lucky Dance 50/1

Verdict  Open handicap and the 3yo could well hold the key with both Drill Sergeant and Perks being horses that should go well. Of the older brigade it could well be that Charlie Tokoyo who has a regressive exposed profile could be primed for a touch for the inform Fahey barn who have this York lover back to some form after the effort he put up in the John Smith Cup and will have the race to suit from the rear of the field and could well be nicely weighted to grind out a victory and looks certain to be involved in the finish.

Advised bet  Charlie Tokyo 2pts e/w @ 20-1 (BF22's)


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