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Preview - 23 May 2008

4.05 Newmarket 1st June Breeze Up Handicap Class 3 7F Good to firm


The classy Jedburgh has dropped right down the weights to appear in this handicap having achieved group 3 & 2 form when in his younger years and at the age of 7yo now, doesn’t seem to have the ability of old. However this is a race he could well be able to win, as he isn’t even of top weight in this handicap. There are several runners in this field who have achieved a good run at class 2 standard and even though this is a handicap in which most of the field have had plenty of tries, a few of them may still be able to give a decent effort at that level in the future.

Phluke has fallen to a handicap mark 5lbs below his best and isn’t over burdened with carrying weight in this handicap but is very heavily raced and may well be on the downgrade now, while Plum Pudding a course specialist and Dingaan have had much racing and fallen to a handicap mark they could win off before maybe having another crack at a better level handicap. The former may have it all to do having to concede weight all round and maybe the Andrew Balding trained runner is the one to have a interest in at this track.

Class Selection – Jedburgh

Lightly raced and Improvement

Most of these handicappers have seen the racecourse on a regular occasion and can be classified as exposed, but the handicap has got a slight edge to it with the inclusion of Big Noise whose record so far is of a progressive horse. Yet to run against classy rivals such as this he is at the top end of the handicap and who’s to say that he will struggle to take to this better opposition on route to heritage handicaps as a improving 4yo. The course form he has achieved stands up well and the time of that race wasn’t to bad in comparison to the likes of final verse on that card so he is a colt of some potential.

Of the more exposed brigade the likes of Plum Pudding and Dingaan are the least raced of those and with each runner in the field having had countless attempts on the going and over seven furlongs, the marker has been set for Big Noise to improve past them all. Lightly raced and improver selection – Big Noise

Recent form

All runners in this field have put up a effort that would have them winning a weak class 3 handicap at least and the only one who has maybe not quite rediscover the performances to take a hand at this level is Ivory Lace who has won countless class 4 handicaps, she is quite exposed and very unlikely to take this race if the principals perform to their level they are capable off. The best recent form has to go to Dingaan efforts in handicaps on the all weather in October and his return run at Goodwood a track that seemly suits his style of running, the others to hold decent recent form are Compton’s Eleven who was touched off when making late headway over course and distance 7 days ago and Mick Channon will be looking for compensation from this gallant grey old timer.

The other one to mention has to be Phluke who continues to land sharp track seven-furlong races for connections and came good last time at Warwick when beating the disappointing prince of thebes in class 4 handicaps. Each of these three runners have achieved higher races then this that contest today and looking at the way the weights are in this race, the Andrew Balding runner may be the best weighted of them based on his recent form, but Compton’s eleven effort here only seven days ago is a big clue.

Recent form selection – Compton Eleven

In Favour

The ground is likely to be fast at HQ today as the big wide open course is known to dry out quickly and the dry weather in the south east in the past week is likely to have dried the course out well after the rain late last week. The horse that really catches the eye in terms of things in his favour has to be the current favourite for this handicap Big noise who has won on the July course twice in his only two starts and has already proven that straight galloping seven on quick ground is just his optimum racing conditions and it is starting to look like he could once again progress up the weights. In against him is Jedburgh who is another who seemly has quite a fair bit in his favour despite his exposed and apparent regressive profile.

Seven furlongs on quick ground has seen him run his biggest races in the past and he is a course winner so there should be every reason that he should run his race to the best of his ability. Races such as the Cambridgeshire etc are out of sphere and now that he is handicapped to win again he can give his owners some chance of recouping the loses over recent years. The other that has quite a bit in favour Phluke who is ideally suited to seven furlongs on quick ground, the biggest concern for that horse may be the stamina side on this track as turning tracks have seen him at his best and for quite a exposed horse he may need his best to win of this current handicap mark even though he is very much a horse to be on side with this time of year. Plum Pudding may want a mile on this track and should stay on well at a track he loves and Compton’s eleven may want the ground to be slightly slower then it is as he does hit a flat spot these days.

In Favour Selection – Jedburgh

Verdict – The feature handicap on a otherwise disappointing Newmarket card, looks set to be a straight match between Jedburgh and Big Noise as two totally different types of horses have live chances of the same mark here. If Big Noise to come out on top he needs to pull out more improvement which is always very likely to happen with a horse with his profile and he deserves to be favourite with very much in his favour, however the introduction of a group winner in Jedburgh in a class 3 handicap such as this could see the John Dunlop horse bounce back to some sort of form and shouldn’t be discounted with much in his favour too. The Old boy Compton’s Eleven may well be the tri-cast horse if he can get the better of Dingaan, Plum Pudding and Phluke, Forest Dane could well claim a place as he often runs well when up against it. For the winner however we take proven form over potential form in this handicap today

Selection Jedburgh 3 pts win @ 8-1 (BF9-1)



Best of luck all

Well Chief