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Preview -
09 May 2008
1:45 WARWICK INTERNATIONAL
HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) Winner £13,246.80 7f122y GD-FM
A handicap that threw up good pointers towards the Bunbury
cup at the July meeting last year, After going through my proces, I
have four horses to pick from for this handicap, where three of them
are a double figure price. The ground at Chester has come up on the
quick side for this meeting and the hazy sunshine will make today no
difference, as good to firm should be an accurate description of the
going today.
So, the four runners that I believe should be considered for this
handicap, are the following: -
Celtic Sultan is the first and the only currently single figured
price of the four for this handicap, where he is currently trading
at 9-1. Off top weight in this handicap this horse is quite likely
to go from the front today from a low draw of 6 of 13 and if Dream
Lodge doesn’t decide to take him on could potentially make every
yard a winning won under Mick Fenton who has kept this horse
consistently running well in the past. The quick ground is ideal for
his action and style of running around here and even though a
straight galloping track has been his most ideal preference he did
run well here behind South Cape and has to be considered on the back
of that run.
Higher in the handicap then when 3rd at this track the hope from
his trainer is that this further trip will help him to overcome the
mark and bring out further improvement that maybe is needed to win
this handicap, if he is to overcome the higher mark, where he looks
handicapped up to his best over seven furlongs he will be contesting
listed class handicaps and heritage handicaps in the near future.
Already beaten the Kiddykid on that run behind South Cape he has it
all to do at the weights with that rival but where as he is on the
up that rival is very much on the down grade and would be no
surprise to see Celtic sultan confirm the form even though he may
not have it all his own way.
The Kiddykid is potentially the class horse in the field but as
already touched on he has a regressive nature about him in terms of
performances over the last 12 months and even though the stable are
in very solid form at the moment you have to take a leap of faith
that he still retains some ability that he once possessed. He is
around a stone and a half well in here if returning to his best form
and the booking of Jimmy Quinn is very eye catching as he is a good
job jockey in my opinion in handicaps and the low weight this horse
has is a bonus. This meeting has thrown up winners that have had
plenty of runs so far and he is potentially the best-handicapped
horse on the entire card. The ground is ideal for him and given that
it is Chester racecourse there is every chance he can win here, as
he is very suited to the track. Drawn wide on the track he is likely
to be tucked in behind the speed today over this mile trip as he
likes to be and if Jimmy Quinn can work the position he could be
handy despite the negative draw.
Goes well this time of the year he has had his prep for this race
today and should be ready to do himself much justice, the recent
form of the horse could well be turned around and if he sees this
trip as well as the seven furlongs he isn’t a forgone hope in this.
Having already touched on his performance against Celtic Sultan he
has a chance of reversing that running and has to make the
shortlist.
Dream Lodge has been kept to a minimal amount of runs on turf in
comparison to his all weather profile and on the latter surface he
has been pitched in against some classy rivals which would give him
quite a say on turf of this mark if he could produce the same sort
of form. The ground today is ideal having shown good speed for this
type of surface on two of his eight starts on turf and clearly he
could improve further for this run on turf having achieved a
reasonable level of form on it in the past. The number one draw
means he is likely to benefit from having the running rail if
bidding to go from the front which is possible having done so in the
past and could well set it up for a closer.
Quite attractively weighted for this handicap he has had to with
stand quite a bit of racing for a 4yo so far in his career and it’s
only the light profile on turf to which we may be able to draw some
improvement from. Recent form is quite good, he may not have enough
pace to see of Celtic Sultan but stamina wise he is guaranteed to
last the trip and may just sit off the leader here today to enhance
his chance for a yard that does well here.
The last one I wish to touch on is from the inform yard of
Richard Hannon and Plum Pudding who does very well in these months
of the year for the yard and after a spell over hurdles, where he
didn’t take too he should benefit from the quick conditions under
foot over this trip. Suited ideally by the straight galloping track
of the Rowley Mile he has ran well twice At kempton’s All weather
track suggesting that the sharper tests shouldn’t be a problem for
the horse. Another that is very well weighted in this race he should
give a bold sighter today for connections and even though quirky
tracks such as Epsom have seen him falter he should go better at
this quirky turning track today. Richard Hughes has been a man in
form lately and under his new leash of life he could finally get to
grip with this horse, where he has gone close on in the past.
Another that has with stood plenty of racing he could finally win
a race at this level, but the fact that they have gone hurdling with
the horse suggest that there isn’t a lot left with this horse in
terms of improvement and easier races may well be the option in the
future.
These four all meet the criteria’s I have put in place in this
race and the fact that all four are quite a big price suggests it is
a wide open race. Of the four runners, Celtic Sultan needs to
improve over the mile to land this race off top weight, while The
Kiddykid is another that has yet to shine over a mile in two runs,
but is very nicely handicapped against these rivals today. He could
well bounce back to form as an 8yo, even though in recent years it
has been won by a younger horse. Plum Pudding has lots in his
favour, apart from the fact that he has yet to win at this level. He
is very heavily raced for a 5yo and the hurdling factor is a slight
concern. Dream Lodge should stay the trip but then you got the
potential speed duel setting it up, however there is a chance he
will sit off Celtic Sultan, who will need to dictate the pace to be
winning this, and the extra stamina may allow him to have the edge
over that horse. He is looking attractively priced at 20-1, along
with the Kiddykid, who may be worth one more try after having his
prep for this event today and not being a front runner in the past,
it was no surprise to see fail to get home last time, when cutting
out the running. Jimmy Quinn is a eye catching booking for the
horse.
Selections –
The Kiddykid 2 pts win @ 33-1
(BF40’s) & Dream Lodge 1 pt win
@ 18-1 (18’s)
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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