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Preview -
21 Apr 2008
3:10 RIU PALACE MELONERAS
HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) Winner £11,215.80 6f GD-SFT
Horses to consider
Genki –(6/1) – Has everything
in favour for a big run in course, ground and trip and a lot relies
on if he has the class to win at this level of this mark. Already
has won 3/3 in class 2 handicaps, he broke his maiden tag on first
start last season and for a sprinter is very lightly raced so there
is every chance that he is fit to go first time here. Best
performances have come in small fields and with non-runner’s a
plenty this morning he may have that ideal as well. On the upgrade
and could contest listed and group races this season.
115 – Has improvement to come from the best of his last 3 runs
which came at Ascot a course regarded as stiff enough, under similar
conditions, the fitness edge he had that day shouldn’t effect him as
he is for a sprinter very lightly raced. Is very game and going the
right way he will have to improve to win of this mark, but more then
capable?
Stevie Gee –(11/2) – Has
proven very effective on ground with juice in it and has also shown
good speed over six furlongs in his short career so far. Six
furlongs on a stiff track is an unknown quantity for this horse, but
he is breed to like a stiffer test of stamina and to get further so
it could work out ideal with the trainer more then aware of what it
takes around here. This is a much tougher class of race then what he
won last time, but he did land a listed class stake as a 2yo and if
that form was to equate to a all age handicap as stoutly contested
as that he wouldn’t have a doubt about this race of a low weight.
However he is likely to need to improve but there could be further
improvement from the 4yo that is race fit.
118 – Best recent effort was last week and that was over seven
furlongs on a flat galloping track and the fact that the trip that
day was quite sharp even though on very soft ground will maybe
equate to the six furlongs in a keenly contested race at a stiffer
testing track. However he may find a few things happening to quick
for him even though he handles the ground and it was drying that
day. That win was against some exposed regressive types looking to
return to form and this is much tougher.
Ingleby Arch –(16/1) – Know
what we get from this sprinter and he has fallen down the weights in
recent months to a contestable mark. Successful over the winter at
the deep surface of southwell he has the ground very much in his
favour today for this run on good ground with plenty of cut in it.
The six-furlong trip is his distance to be running over having
struggled to get home over further and he isn’t sure to appreciate
the stiffness of this six-furlong track today having performed best
on galloping and undulating tracks even though Hamilton can be quite
stiff and maybe he would want a easier class of race these days even
though he is looking handicapped to go well at this level on old
class 2 form achieved as a 3yo.
111 – Best recent performances were the back-to-back wins on the
fibre sand in which he clearly had a new lease of life on and given
the average return to turf when fit last time (funny race) was
around a stone light of those winning performances suggest he isn’t
at the top of his game on this surface anymore and a easier class of
race may be best served, but it has to be noted the ground was very
testing that day and this should be a better run but stamina maybe
an issue with testing ground proving limitations again in the horse.
Zomerlust –(14/1) – Has much
in favour having won this race in the past, albeit when the race was
a much lesser handicap then these days. Stamina isn’t a problem with
this horse as he is kind of a in between distance horse, which can
be a problem for a exposed 6yo in handicaps against improvers, but
is suited to this six furlongs which has proven to be his ideal trip
as he is always one to note on a flat six when the pace in generous
in a big field handicap. The ground today should be fine as he
handles anything up to good racing ground with some juice underfoot.
Has form at this level but isn’t a genuine top class handicapper,
but will benefit from the weight he has to carry this time around at
this level and if still as good as he was 2yrs ago could well be
back in with a chance in this handicap.
107 - The pick of his last 3 runs was back at York in October a
track that has proven to big good to him in the past, but that
effort wasn’t great and next time at Donnie he suffered further
disappointment which led me to believe he may not be in rude health
anymore and has been over raced for his type. Returned to action in
that weird race at Doncaster in the mud and struggled home to not
show much, he needs to return to form and may well do so now after
skinning fitter for that run, but he may struggle even though eased
further in the weights he is against some inform and in good health
rivals today.
Damikia –(7/1) – Some-slight
ground concerns over this horse today as his record on ground with
give in isn’t as prolific as quick ground, however he won on ground
similar to this today when making all at Newmarket back in the
Autumn and clearly enjoyed it that day so there is little likely to
be wrong with the ground and did run a decent race behind Turnkey
here last season even though his other performances on a stiff track
such as this has been a concern in the past. Very effective over 6F
and 7F he will like the stiffer test of stamina today on a track
such as this even though a strong galloping track such as Newmarket
has seen him at his best in the past.
114 – Best performance in the last 3 runs was that run at
Newmarket over seven furlongs on ground with give underfoot which he
is likely to encounter today and if you take his performance at
Doncaster on a higher weight as a guide to his wellbeing he is just
below that class of performance in a low class race. Today he is in
the same class and on a stiffer six furlongs than at Doncaster, so
it could help his stamina that he clearly has based on the
performance over seven at Newmarket. However he could be more an
interest when stepped back up to seven and may just find others hard
to peg back today and is needing some improvement today which is
hard fathom any from his profile to win of this mark.
Distinctly Game (16/1) – At
the right end of the handicap and has had limited tries on ground
with some juice in and the fact he is yet to win with fast ground
being his winning races suggest he may not like it, however he has
put up some decent performances on this surface in the past from his
limited runs and may well be able to run a big race today with
potential improvement on turf for this surface. However weather it
is enough to win today is unlikely even though trainer did have 3
declared runners in this handicap this morning. Six furlongs is the
correct trip for this horse, but he stamina isn’t assured over this
stiffer test then he is use too, Finished last twice in strongly
contested handicaps over five and six on stiff tracks.
112 – Best recent run came two runs back on a surface he
constantly does well on and that was at Kempton when not beaten far
in a class 3 handicap, the run next time in a class 4 handicap
mirrored that run where he was beaten a little further but ran to a
similar level with a bigger weight and these performances need to be
improved on to win at this level even though it proves he is more
then capable of running a race at this level still, when there is
further concerns with the likes of Zomerlust. The ground may improve
the horse potential at this level, but will it be enough the doubts
are there and he has enjoyed much success on the all-weather and
maybe his career lies there as overall he is very exposed.
Verdict – A change
of preview style, as I narrow down the field now and concentrate
further on the horses that make the requirements. In my view,
today’s race could be the ideal stepping stone for the lightly raced
Genki who has a strong looking record. The price of 6-1 looks more
then fair for this horse and out of the ones I have touched on he
looks very solid value at this price. Damika could go well, but
there is further races in him when returned to seven furlongs, while
Stevie Gee may find this happening a little too fast for him today.
Zomerlust could get a place in this today, if finding his old form
and rates as the next best at the price, while Ingleby Arch has
stamina doubts to be a betting chance at 16-1.
Selection –
GENKI 4 pts win @ 6-1 (6.2-1 BF)
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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