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Preview -
17 Apr 2008
2:55 Cheltenham MESSIER-DOWTY
LANDING GEAR NOVICES' LIMITED HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 3) (5yo+,0-135)
Winner Ł9.7K 2m 5F Good ground
1. Forest Green – Nichols
enjoyed a good first day of this April meeting at Cheltenham and
will be looking to continue suit today with his first string in this
handicap being further down the weights thanks to the inclusion of
forest green. The ground here today is likely to still be on the
fast side of good with the time of year and the drainage system at
the home of jump racing. Never seemed to be travelling at all after
a break last time at Aintree and there has to be some concerns with
that piece of form, however this is a much easier task set by the
champion trainer for his horse and he may well have come on for that
run. Not to terribly handicapped on the form he showed last summer
to hold claims in this he just about gets the trip well enough to be
a contender and loves this sort of surface, the claimer helps out at
the weights and he shouldn’t be discounted lightly just yet.
My Rating – 145
2. Gold Medallist – Ran a
cracker when chasing home Tidal Bay over this course and distance on
come back run and often class horses are best caught when first
returning from a long absence. Form since has been a bit patchy at
the lower level as he looks to rediscover the form that had him
strongly fancied for the royal sun alliance hurdle back in 2005.
Hurdles seemed to suit him better on his achievements under that
code, but he has had setbacks since and isn’t as good as he once
was. Recent form suggests this with his effort in the Jewson
Handicap at the festival not amounting to much of one and his best
form being the small chase race he contested at Exeter where he was
more then expected to land that race. Needs to find his form again
as he looks handicapped to go well if returning to his hurdle form.
This will be his 10th run under national hunt rules but he is quite
exposed overall and there seems to be little improvement. Acts
superbly well under the conditions, he may be seen to better effect
when stepping up in trip on a flatter track.
My Rating – 139
3. Sir Bathwick – Has form
tied in with Gold Medallist on Exeter running and if it wasn’t for
the poor effort last time at Fontwell where he never really went a
yard he could be quite well fancied in this handicap. Taking the
form of the Exeter run where the ground did have some cut in it he
has a chance to turn the tables on his victor, however he doesn’t
look ideally handicapped and is quite exposed under the conditions
so if Gold Medallist returns to his best form then he may well
struggle to reverse the form. Suited to the better ground today and
stay’s this trip well, he has yet to tackle a track as stiff as this
but his sire Oscar offspring’s have often relished the Cheltenham
hill.
My rating – 140
4. Warpath – winner the other
week in a small Novice chase at the track and returns to handicap
company today needing to improve on that run to have a chance of
this mark today. The ground is very much in his favour having ran so
well on it in the past and the Newbury run back in December can be
discounted, as he didn’t handle the conditions underfoot. Not overly
burdened with racing for a 7yo he has got something to find with the
most of these but is one that stays this trip to good effect when
given the correct conditions underfoot. The stiff track isn’t likely
to be ideal and there will no doubt be lesser races to be won when
dropped a few pounds in the weights.
My Rating – 131
5. Ocean Du Moulin – The
second runner for Paul Nichols in this handicap and the apparent
first string looking at the jockey booking of Sam Thomas for this
ride. Lightly raced so far he makes his debut over fences today
having shown some ability over hurdles in his limited runs. Marks
down as one of the more interesting runners in this race he is open
to all sorts of improvement with ground perfect for him. Was running
a nice race when falling at the last at Kempton in a decent novice
hurdle earlier in the season and looked booked for 2nd, that form
may have been his best piece of form despite failing to complete and
the trip today should suit. Open to all kind of improvement for a
yard that aims the majority of their runners as future chasers he is
well respected in this handicap.
My Rating – 144
6. Sprosser – Better of at
the weights with Gold Medallist for whom he beat at Southwell back
in January and was given a tough task last time out against seasoned
chasers at Wetherby where his jumping would have been well tested.
Stood up to that task well despite the ground being on the lively
side and is interesting now dropped back in trip which has to be a
concern with what he achieved over hurdles. The stiff is another
uncertainty to the make up of this horse and even though he is
potentially very well handicapped for a lightly raced horse he may
want a return to further. The ground should be ok for him despite
needing a bit of cut in the turf. Overall there will be better
chances for this horse in similar company and today may just be
against him a bit in the make up of the race.
My Rating – 139
7. Sarin – Form when beating
Beat the boys was franked yesterday at this meeting and Venetia
Williams continues her good form of recent weeks with her chasers
and Sarin has to be respected from a shrewd stable at the moment. A
desperate error last time put paid to his chances and maybe best
discounted as a piece of form to use and often is seen having a
couple of months in between his races. Now 10yo and not overburdened
with racing he comes into this race needing to improve on that run
at Exeter where he had to dig deep and even though the form has
worked out, he needs prove that at 10yo he is going the right way.
Could have further improvement being by Deploy and racing on better
ground now, he stays this trip very well and well benefit from the
stiffer test.
My Rating – 142
8. Mister Potter – Yet to
show the form he achieved over hurdles in seven starts over fences,
but is potentially well handicapped if it was to all click in to
place. Not heavily exposed for an 8yo having only raced 13 times on
the racecourse and could well improve further as he starts to get to
grip with the fences. Warren Marston keeps the ride having given him
his best spin over fences to date at Newbury last time and that
represents solid form against his rivals today. The ground however
has to a major concern with all form on a softer surface than he
will be encountering today and looking at breeding and his action it
isn’t likely to suit. The stiff track however is ideal
My Rating – 139
9. Nation State – Placed in
the first ever Fred Winter handicap here back in 2005 and that has
to be the most strong piece of form achieved by most in this
handicap today and if he could transfer his best hurdles form to
fences he would have a sold chance in this handicap today. Exposed
up to the hilt he could be well handicapped if ever getting to grips
with the chasing game, but the 7yo continues to disappoint over
fences and clearly doesn’t stay this far. Trainer looks at a lost
end with the horse and despite the improving ground enhancing his
chances, he needs to be dropped back in trip in a race such as this
to maybe start winning again, the course is ideal and could well run
a place today providing it isn’t ran at a strong clip.
My Rating – 143
10. Commemoration Day – Nigel
Twiston-Davies has enjoyed a great season so far and his horses
usually come into them selves around this time of year so all his
runners must be well respected. Limited runs over the winter for
this horse ready for another summer campaign he is ideally placed
over this trip today that has shown him in good light recently and
on the best of his form he is regarded as well handicapped in this
today. The run is a novice chase two runs back was a good effort
proving that the horse in relation to the others in this race is
fairly in good health with himself and with conditions underfoot of
similar standards to that day he has the conditions to run well
under. Certainly one to keep a eye on when on a less stiff galloping
track and maybe taking on more exposed rivals as he is the most
heavily raced horse in the field and unlikely to find anymore
improvement as he slips back down the weights.
My Rating – 141
11. Dune Raider – the vet
hasn’t enjoyed the season he had 12 months ago what was highlighted
by his win in the Coral cup at the festival. His runner here has
been quite consistent over fences so far with a win at Leicester
over today’s trip the pick of his form so far this season where the
quick ground underfoot really brought improvement out of him. Well
Suited to the conditions underfoot today his lack lustered
performances in his last two runs may have been down to the give
underfoot which doesn’t suit him and the return to these conditions
today should see a much improved performance from the horse
providing he handles this stiff jumping track. Only 7yo there is
time for more wins from this horse, as long as he is kept sound.
Looks handicapped to go well at the time of year that often brings
out the best in the horse.
My Rating – 139
12. Billesey – another quite
lightly raced novice in this event for a 10yo and is open to
improvement in what is a pretty poor looking class 3 handicaps here
today. Didn’t beat much when putting up his best effort over fences
at Huntingdon and needs to find improvement on that running, he is
well weighted today receiving weight all-round. Best form has come
on a soft surface and over shorter trips this step up in trip on
better ground isn’t certain to help his chances today. Remains as
interesting for when the ground comes up soft, but isn’t likely to
improve on that Huntingdon effort today.
My Rating – 136
My Tissue – Forest Green 5/1, Ocean Du Moulin 6/1, Nation State
8/1, Sarin 9/1, Commemoration Day 10/1, Sir Bathwick 12/1, Gold
Medallist, Mister Potter, Sprosser, Billesy 16/1, Dune Raider 20/1,
Warpath 25/1.
Verdict – An open
handicap and one of the more trappy kinds you will find through out
the course of the season. Paul Nichols is very much likely to have
the winner of this handicap as he seeks a hatrick and both his
runners in this race have solid looking chances at the weights, His
newcomer to fences is the most interesting on the pair and could be
anything, but this track takes some jumping and it might be wise to
stick to a horse that is a proven jumper. Forest Green can be
forgiven his comeback run and is sure to have skinned fitter for
that run, the price of 10-1 generally available looks fairly decent
value, in against him maybe Nation State can be given another chance
to run a big race here today with the ground ideal and the fair
efforts he has recorded in the past. Providing his stamina lasts
home he has a fair chance in a poor race from this current mark.
Selection –
Forest Green 1 pt win @
9-1(BF’S9’S) & Nation State 1 pt
win @ 9-1 (BF’s9’s)
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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