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Preview 07 April 2008

4.50 Plumpton Alexander Catering Handicap Chase Class 4 26F Soft

1. New Perk - Regular in races such as this in the spring around Fakenham and Fontwell and enjoys the sharp nature of those track, so it is surprising he hasn't been at his best when contesting chases around this track. The weakness of this class 4 handicaps. Well exposed as most in this handicap are he could win this of top weight given that he is weighted to go well despite being 5lbs higher then latest winning mark. Handles soft well even though drier ground is most ideal and just about stays this trip. The ground will make it more testing with the weight on his back and maybe shorter would have been better suited then the full 26F. Has much in favour and each-way money could be had.

My rating - 107

2. Maori Legend - Paired with usual claimer on board, she comes here of the back of a failure to get round over hurdles and the return to chases may well bring about a turn around in form. The two runs prior to that pull up were not the most convincing rounds of jumping and she is looking like the handicapper has her measure. Her form around this time of year isn't convincing either and from a high weight she may well struggle under the conditions today even though she has proven to stay in very testing conditions in the past.

My rating - 101

3. Charango Star - Has proven ability at this level and on the 2nd to Victory Gunner at Chepstow has some claims on current form. The latest two runs have been far from convincing to back him in good faith as he has failed to complete his races, but he is well handicapped at this level. Ability to stay the trip is a important factor as a lot of horses get found out over 3M plus, even if it isn't the most testing of tracks and if anything he would have preferred a much sounder test of stamina. Handles tacky tough ground well he may want more rain to totally be on top form and genuine oft ground may be against him. Best prior to the spring he has a race that is totally within his grasp today.

My rating - 107

4. Climate Change - Hard to measure up this horse from a decent jumping stable and his overall form has to be labelled as disappointing having been well beaten on his first 3 starts in handicaps over jumps. The form of his novice race stands up reasonably with the 2nd running unlucky Aintree 2nd Dev close at Sandown, so on that form line he could be in with a chance at this low level. However the step up in trip isn't certain to bring around a turn in form on breeding and a drop back to minimum distances might turn his fencing standard around.

My Rating - 91

5. Present M'Lord - Lightly raced chaser at the age of 8 and represents a yard that has enjoyed a brilliant season landing races with the Listerner and a welsh national and there horse here has to respected in a race that he is handicapped to go well in. Has ran with a consistent edge this season and looks likely to continue it this year in which a frame place looks the least likely. The ground shouldn't dampen his chances and he is very likely to see out every yard around this track even if a stronger test of stamina would be preferred. Has plenty of good form at this level and would be no surprise to see him stepped up in class in the near future.

My rating - 108

6. Amoreigh - Winner last time out when continuing the good form he has already shown this winter where he just started to get tired close home to hold on last time. The ground that day made the stamina under a heavy weight start to tell, but it was comfortable and he can continue his progression today over these staying trips that has brought about late improvement in thee 11yo who has been used sparingly. Sharp tracks seem to be ideal and the trainer is getting the best out of him and testing ground is helping him to kick at the right time. Big chance of racking up another wins if finding enough improvement to overcome the weights today.

My rating - 111

7. Hazeljack - Unseated latest which he was contesting a close up 2nd and that came on the back of a return to form the time prior. Whether he would have beaten the born again Amoreigh is highly unlikely as he has plenty of miles on the clock and being very exposed he may well struggle being back close to needing to be at his best to win. Ground, trip and course all seem to be in his favour, which is the case with most, and the jockey has got on well with him since taking over. The weight claim should help him as the 11yo will need assistance at the weights, but it is no advantage having been hiked back up the ratings when the change first took place.

My rating - 103

8. Lescar's Lad - Was unlucky latest when beaten by an unexposed type in a similar sort of handicap and has to come here as a rated danger with that run ear marking a return to form. Has plummeted down the ratings on this long losing run and could have benefited for the return of his regular rider last time. Paired with him again he could well end that long losing run here today with the ground and trip very much in his favour. Suited to tight track, he does prefer the more galloping sharp tracks like Huntingdon then maybe this and his best form has come going right handed where he is regularly campaigned so he may have a couple of negatives against him.

My Rating - 110

9. Tallow Bay - has fallen by the wayside this season and was well beaten by Amoreigh here last time and prior to that had failed to complete in any of his last four chase faces giving the impression that he is out of love with the game. Failure to run with any zest today will mark him down as needing a change of yard and a seller is on the horizon as he has everything in favour with the conditions of this race and the low weight in a handicap that he should run a solid race in. Often starts to run out steam this time of year as his best form has been around the winter months, he has the hallmarks of not one to trust with your life savings.

My rating - N/A

10. Alderbrook Girl - In the same mould as Tallow bay in which she completed her last run after a hatrick of pull-ups the time before, but the race was dead as far as a form book goes and the tailing off just proved that she is far from suited to this game at present. Half a stone out of the handicap doesn't make life easier for her. Stays 3 miles well enough her runs over further has been very uninspiring and she may just start to run out of petrol in the finish here today, however she isn't exposed over 3M+ and there may be a reason to preserve with her over this extended 3M in company such as this. It would take a leap of faith to back her however given the recent efforts she has shown and a return to form here would have her well handicapped for a similar race to this next time.

My rating - N/a

Tissue Prices - Amoreigh 7/2, Lescer's Lad 4/1, Present M'Lord 6/1, Charango Star, New Perk 7/1, Hazeljack 10/1, Maori Legend 12/1, Climate Change 16/1, Tallow Bay, Alderbrook Girl 20/1.

Verdict  Another low grade chase, but it is what to be expected at the change over from one code to the other and with a few of these having meet in the past it should be a case of the exposed horses in the handicap being found out by the tactics of the likely pace setters. A couple of well-handicapped horses for the level of opponents in this race make it a interesting race and Amoreigh is non surprising favourite at 11-4 on the advertised tissue. However he has to find more improvement at 11, which isn't out of the question as he is revitalised by the changes to the trip and ground. Lescer's Lad isn't likely to be too short a price as he is on a long losing run and could well be the value to play in this race at around 7-1, while present M'lord represents a bigger stable then most in this race so expect to see him supported as well to go close and 4-1 may be a little to skinny a price to be taking even though he does look very likely to make the money. There is value outside these 3 but they are my main fancied horses and Lescer's Lad is the value pick and e/w may be the soundest route on a typical Mondays racing.

Selection  1 pt e/w Lescer's Lad @ 7-1 (8's + 3.5BF'S)

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