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Preview 06 April 2008

4.20 Market Rasen Handicap Chase 20F Good Ground

1. Copper Bay - Looked quite a accomplished horse over hurdles for Alan King and hasn't quite got his act together over fences as of yet and could be in the grip of the handicapper after winning some average novice handicap chases. Pulled up latest in a class 4 handicap chase at Lingfield latest and contests a similar race here from top of the handicap. If he could find his form that he showed over hurdles then he would take all the beating, but with blunders in his locker he hasn't totally convinced this is the code for him. Worth another try at this trip and could improve for not jumping at pace.

My Rating - 111

2. Stagecoach Amber - Won a maiden chase two runs back when taking the quick ground well at Cattrick and ran a respectable race at Newcastle in a handicap on second start over fences. Has some stamina doubts having never produced his best running over hurdles over this far and while he was a decent hurdler he is yet to get to that level over fences but could well improve. The handicapper didn't seem to give him much chance over fences on debut and the evaluation of the maiden handicap could well be a little to high here as copper bay did achieve more over hurdles.

My rating - 108

3. Moment of Madness - not the most consistent horse in this handicap with two pull ups in his last 3 races, but the run he did complete was a very good effort in the make up of this handicap today. The run on quick ground at Sedgefield he was beaten off by a horse with a featherweight in a handicap that maybe was a little lower then this. The ground however may not be ideal for him, as it seems with juice in the ground being his more consistent preference underfoot. The trip shouldn't be to much of a problem for him having stayed further then this even if he hasn't quite found the same level of form since steeping up from 2M. Exposed but come here very much back to some sort of form.

My Rating - 113

4. Cash on Friday - Beat Eborarry last time in good style at this track and even though on worse terms here today should have claims of confirming the form if the ground hasn't gone totally against him. This handicap could be just as good as the race he won and with the hike in the weights it is likely to be made harder for him at the weights today.

My rating - 107

5. Spring Gamble - Returning from a long absence from the race course and is well handicapped if retaining his ability prior to injury. Likely to need ideal conditions after injury the ground may need more give underfoot for him to be at his best and shorter trips have been more ideal in the past even though this isn't the most testing track around. Hard to know just how fit he is likely to be after 800+ days of the track and he has often in the past come on for the run.

My Rating - N/A

6. Eborrary - Connections feel he can reverse the form with cash on Friday here on better terms and he has a lot in favour as he goes well this time of year for Tim Easterby who is better known as a flat trainer rather then a trainer of jumpers. However rain would have increased his chances a lot and with the ground getting quicker it is unlikely he will be at his best to reverse the form with cash on Friday and looking at the overall make up the race he is another that could be in the grip of the handicapper.

My Rating - 108

7. Cebonne - the unexposed type in the handicap with strong connections as Keith revelry has often got some good horses from Sir Robert Orgdon in the past and with four runs over fences in the UK so far not amounting to much he doesn't look anything special and the turn to handicapping may well bring some improvement out of the horse as he gets weight all-round here. The unknown Quantity has to improve on his form even at this low level and today may be best to watch until he does improve his form.

My Rating - 101

Tissue - Moment of Madness 5/2, Copper Bay 4/1, Stagecoach Amber, Eborrary 6/1, Cash on Friday 13/2, Cebonne 12/1, Spring Gamble 16/1.

Verdict  Small little handicap in which Stagecoach Amber has been made favourite for and I can only assume that the tissue compliers see the horse on the upgrade over fences and well handicapped on the maiden chase form he showed. However this could make the market much more profitable with Moment of Madness (6/1) and Copper Bay (10/1) looking good value and worth backing both against those at the head of the market.

Selection  Copper Bay 1pt win @ 10-1 (BF11's) + Moment of Madness 2pts win @ 6-1 (BF6's)

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