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Preview
05 April 2008
4.15 Aintree Johns Smith Grand
National (Handicap) grade 3 4M 4F Good-Soft
1. Hedgehunter - Former
winner of this race and the modern day Consistent horse in this
race, it is all in the name with this horse and is the first of
three runners in this race for owner Trevor Hemmings who also have
the favourite in cloudy Lane. In the twilight of his career he
should struggle to give weight away today and needs others to not
complete and have a unlucky run to be landing this race for the 2nd
time. Paired with Ruby Walsh again is a big bonus and sees out this
trip well with the ground being in his favour and obviously has
course form. Now 12yo and is older then most recent winners and he
will once again complete with a clear round of jumping so has to
have place claims but hard to see him winning.
My rating - 154
2. Hi Cloy - Loves this track
and finished 2nd in a hurdle race this season and has had a hard
season overall with seven runs already and few of those on really
testing ground and under joint top weight today is likely to
struggle to beat many of these. Enjoys this type of ground but has
to be a concern on his stamina under top weight never been over this
far. Current form is only average leading into this race and has to
improve on that which isn't a far from conclusion with this track
suiting and taking to the fences today could see him complete, but
the likely hood is that he won't complete.
My Rating - 148
3. Knowhere - a six length
victor this season over Our Vic is the highlight of his form and
even though well beaten in the Gold Cup he has been set some pretty
stiff tasks and from the higher marks in this handicap he has once
again been set a hard task to get his head back in front and looks
handicapped up to the hilt and is starting to look exposed as a 10yo
and may need some help from the handicapper to be a force next
season. Best at Cheltenham where he is kept to in the main he comes
here for the 2nd season having tipped up last season. Needs to prove
his stamina and his ability on a flat track and others looks better
weighted.
My rating - 158
4. Mr Pointment - Was a
strong favourite for this race until bursting a blood vessel at
Doncaster in the trial race against Cloudy Lane and has to be
approached with caution in this handicap as he returns to action
today. Already won over these fences this season when winning in
good style at the November meeting and has novice form tied in with
the monster Denman to his name. With Paul Nichols this season and
laid out for this race since day one with the trainer. Likely to
stay this trip he has improvement to come and is lightly raced this
season and comes here a ideal gap in between racing and could bounce
back to form even though he doesn't fit the mould of recent winners
of this race.
My Rating - 150
5. Turko - beaten in the Ryan
air which the form has been franked since with Our Vic landing the
Bowl at this meeting on Thursday and Turko is a classy horse with
grade 1 form to his name and deserves respect back in handicaps for
Paul Nichols who will be looking to put some glossy on yet another
championship in the bag. Best right handed he could end up in the
Whitbread if proving his stamina in this handicap today and with the
ground in his favour he may well stay further then he has in the
past having stuck on well last time out. Possibly could improve for
the step up in trip he has some decent form coming into this
handicap and may run a big race in what is a strong looking
national. At 6yo he could well be a future national winner.
My rating - 158
6. Madison Du Berelais -
Looks handicapped up to the hilt and even though the Hennessy is a
good marker for this race he was staying on past beaten horses when
beaten a easy 20L by Denman in this season renewal. Has been
campaigned with this in mind and this could be a good prep for
future Nationals as he still has possible improvement on races over
3M+. Best on quick ground connections will be hopping that it dries
out further before post time to help his chances, but the overall
look is that the handicapper has his measure at present and this is
a fact finding mission for a future tilt at this race being just a
7yo.
My Rating - 152
7. Simon - Hasn't enjoyed the
best of seasons, but comes here as a unlucky horse 12 months ago
when in the form of his life and even though looking like the
handicapper now has him 12 months on he has a point to prove. The
ground shouldn't be a problem even though many believe he needs a
real slog in the ground and has a touch a class about him. However
with the handicapper looking to have his mark this time around he is
playing just a minor role in this handicap.
My rating - 158
8. Ardaghey - Pulled up at
Cheltenham in the Kim Muir and gets in as a replacement with David
England taking the weight further down and he has a profile of a
regressive horse over the past 12 months and has showed little since
winning at Cheltenham early season and would be a surprise winner of
this even if he was to find his feet again nearly 8 months on.
Stamina shouldn't be a issue with the weights helping him along and
tougher ground has often brought the best out of him in the past.
My rating - 140
9. Iron Man - Had a
progressive summer last year and has struggled since those months to
have a profitable season and is handicapped up to his very best in
this today and would be a big surprise to see him winning again this
time around and can be firmly discounted with maximum confidence as
he has been on the go all season and looks likely to need a break
which I would imagine will start after today.
My Rating - 122
10. Fundamentalist - Ran
twice at the festival and managed to get a distance place behind
Mister Mcgoldrick which cant be judged with to much confidence as
form to win a handicap such as this from high in the handicap.
Lesser light then the former grade 1 hurdle winner an future Gold
Cup horse he was touted as, he looks pass this level these days and
needs some further help from the handicapper and a lesser race I
feel.
My rating - 158
11. Butler's Cabin - hasn't
enjoyed the best of seasons so far after winning back to back big
races last spring and the surprising selection of Tony McCoy who had
a choice of 3 runners in this handicap to finally break his duck
like Frankie did in the Derby. Best chance maybe was Clan Royal a
few seasons back when he was starting to run away with it and got
carried out at the Canal turn and for me Butler's Cabin isn't as
good as he was 12 months ago and even though potential improvement
to come he looks to high in the weights to be winning this handicap
I feel and McCoy will go another year with out winning one race that
has eluded him.
My rating - 143
12. Slim Pickings - Ran a
cracker in this race 12 months ago and if steering the correct path
he should be involved in the finish here today despite being higher
in the weights as he is likely to have improved with the most
perfect prep for this race that should have put him spot on for this
race today. Ground and trip look ideal for him and is clearly still
going the right way and at 9yo he is the ideal age for this and
looks to be the strongest hope for the team from the emerald island.
My rating - 171
13. Chelsea Harbour - Has had
a long hard season since October with plenty of race course
appearances and for me his form looks to be lower then he once was
capable off and would like to see him dropping a few more pounds to
be handicapped to win a grade 3 chase such as this. Question marks
have to raised on drying ground as they wont be hanging around today
and this 8yo with a lighter campaign next season and a few pounds
dropped could be interesting in 12 months time.
My rating - 145
14. Vodka Bleu - Last seen
behind Kauto Star at Ascot where he was well beaten and has enjoyed
some success this season in handicaps that would be just below the
class of this race today and isn't as good as he once was prior to
injury. The ground shouldn't be a problem but will he find enough
improvement over these staying trips that haven't looked natural for
him. Timmy Murphy has sided against him today and even though the
trainer is heavy handed in this handicap he looks one of the lesser
runners for the yard in this.
My Rating - 158
15. L'ami - One of two
runners for the French trainer Douman and hopefully Micky Fitz will
be fit to take the ride after being stepped down yesterday on a
winner and this could be his last National as he is getting on.
L'Ami is a superb jumper and ran well in the William hill handicap
to grab a close place and seems to be returning to form that saw him
run a cracker in the Gold Cup a few seasons ago behind the likes of
Hedgehunter. Only 9yo he is the right age for a big run in this race
and the ground and this extended trip should be perfect for him and
McCoy could be kicking him for passing him over.
My rating - 160
16. Snowy Morning - Has
struggled over fences this season and enjoyed his success over
hurdles in which he would have been of interest if taking his chance
in the World hurdle and the 8yo looks to be the 2nd string for the
yard for this with Ruby Walsh sticking with Hedgehunter who knows
how to make it around here. However Snowy Morning who fell in the
Hennessy Gold cup early in the season when fancied to give the likes
of Denman a run for his money, comes here fresh with the yard
resisting temptation of running at Cheltenham and that could turn
out to be the wrong choice and maybe hurdles point the way in the
future.
My rating - 160
17. Bewleys Berry - Was last
season his year in this race and could end up the new Clan Royal as
his jockey reported that he was running away with it last season
when bouncing of the ground and comes into the race this year with
another big run over these fences already this season and has had a
limited campaign like 12 months coming into this race as there isn't
enough races over these fences for him and maybe the Cheltenham
cross country race may be a future assignment to keep him on the go.
Comes here this time of the back of a pull up at Haydock which has
to be a concern and at 10yo this might be his best chance to finally
win a race at this track before it is too late. Drier ground would
improve his chance further.
My Rating - 155
18. Contraband - has ran in
the champion hurdle the gold cup and now the national and the former
winner of the arkle when with Martin pipe 4 seasons ago, doesn't
have the form anymore to having a chance in races such as this and
is taking up space for a runner that has a chance.
My Rating - N/A
19. Mckelevey - Got injured
on the run in this race 12 months ago when staying on in good
fashion to finish a close 2nd and would be no surprise to see him
bounce back to form after 2 runs over hurdles this season to put hi
spot on. Enjoyed a much more frequent season 12 months ago when
finishing 2nd in this and the prep this time around you have to have
a leap of faith in backing him to land this prize as he could be
much of a lesser light this time around. Looks handicapped to go
well at this level on last seasons run and should enjoy the
conditions and stays this far with a good spring record, but has a
few doubts over Prep.
My rating - 156
20. Joacci - Has been called
a few names in the past but has been secretly laid out for this race
this season by connections and comes here a very fresh horse in
which he goes well after a break and drying ground is in his favour
as well and wouldn't be quick to discount the horse as not classy
enough to land this prize as he stays marathon trips well and with
the claimer on board lightening the load on his back he could run a
massive race at a big price today. Goes well this time of the season
and is a dark horse for this.
My rating - 159
21. Point Barrow - was all
the rage 12 months ago and didn't get very far into the race as he
fell quite early and has only just started to show some form over
fences again since that fall. Has been raced heavily this season
with seven runs he could well get tired as the stamina is tested to
the max in this race providing he is still in the race come the
finish and he hasn't looked the most natural stayer on the book.
Handles this type of ground well and often goes well this time of
year.
My rating - 148
22. D'Argent - Winner of
warwick's staying race and comes into this race with quite a few
supporters for this race as Alan King continues to grow as a trainer
to follow at the big meetings this season. Stays longer then the
mother in law and handles give in the ground the conditions
underfoot may well be the biggest question mark for the horse who
should know where he is having ran in this race before and this
could well be his last realistic chance in this race today, but he
will need help against better handicapped rivals.
My rating - 156
23. No Full - Not one to
totally discount to lightly as he doesn't have the most glamour's
profile of the runners today but has been very consistent and
handles this ground well. First time over 3M today could see him
improve if getting the extra mile and a bit, he has often shaped as
though needing further then he has been racing over and at 7yo he
could have a few seasons in this race to come.
My Rating - 150
24. Baily Breeze - Has had a
mixed season so far after starting of well and will be looking for a
return to form in this race today that he needs to find improvement
in to have a say in the outcome and that isn't certain to happen
with recent form being tailing off since a decent run behind Newbay
Prop. The ground and trip have to be a concern as well and he may
not turn out to be a typical national type.
My rating - 148
25. Bob Hall - very poor at
Cheltenham where he has gone well before and may just be a typical
Jonjo O'Neil horse who often seems to run well in spells before
there form tails off and taking the form in the Paddy Power Gold Cup
his last decent run he wouldn't be totally out of luck in a grade 3
handicap, maybe not as competitive as this one today. The ground
seems to be turning back to his ideal conditions and he could
improve for the extra trip but the likely hood is that it wont be
enough to turn around his season and connections must doubt his
stamina with McCoy deserting him today.
My rating - 155
26. Cloudy Lane - Has struck
up a hattrick this season and a good relationship with his jockey
and could give the McCain's a fifth winner in this race and the 8yo
in the Trevor Hemming Colours has always been regarded as a national
type and could give the owner as much joy as Hedgehunter has over
the last 4 years in this race and with the handicapper currently in
arrears with this horse who has won of 11lbs higher in which he is
yet to penalised with as it was after the weights were published for
this event he deserves to be favourite for this race as he is
technically a handicap good thing and if it wasn't for the fences he
would be much shorter in this race. The ground should be ok for him
and if he doesn't land it this year I feel he will land it in the
next 3 years.
My rating - 170
27. Kings John Castle - In My
Mind this should have been the choice of Tony McCoy as his prep for
this race has been foot perfect with a good win last time over
hurdles preserving his confidence for this race and could give
Ireland yet another winner in this race in the last 5 years. Has had
a consistent season so far and all roads have been aimed towards
this race and with more improvement likely for these long distances
that look ideal for him and the ground not being a problem and good
spring form in the book. Decent chance.
My rating - 163
28. Mon Mome - Stayed on late
in the William hill handicap at the festival and maybe was better 12
months ago then he is this season. The Yard has turned the corner
and Mon Mone who is now 8yo but seems to have been around for a long
time could bounce back to form but with the ground riding faster
then expected he may well be out on his feet here today having been
best with plenty of give under foot and given the recent form he may
be better for next seasons national then this year as he does stay
well on a galloping track such as this.
My rating - 141
29. Cornish Sett - Didn't run
to bad in the Welsh National in ground that was more then tacky
enough for him and maybe needs staying trips such as this now having
looked a two and half miler in the past. The ground will suit him
much better this time around but he has a regressive profile from
his earlier form and maybe needs a easier race then this to be
landing and results as a place effort as the highest likely finish.
My rating - 152
30. Naunton Brook - Has had a
hard season and wasn't going a yard last time in the midlands
national and maybe that race came a bit to soon after a real testing
race at Wincanton where he was trying to match a far superior rival
in the Gold Cup 3rd. Sure to have had this in mind after running on
again in the Welsh National but his form is likely to be tailing off
now and he doesn't seem handicapped to win a grade 3 as tough as
this, despite being one that should stay the trip.
My Rating - 156
31. Tumbling Dice - Achieved
top form over fences as a novice chaser and is more then exposed
now, and maybe very little improvement to be gained from a marathon
trip such as this. That novice form maybe had him wrongly
handicapped over fences and he has fallen down the handicap to
nearing a mark that he can win off and the ground should well is in
his favour. Dodgy jumping at time has been his undoing, yet he
always seems to land on his feet. Nearing the bottom of the weights
should help him and wouldn't be the first horse to take a liking for
these types of fences who gets sloppy over conventional fences.
My Rating - 158
32. Backbeat - Returned from
a absence to bolt up in good style at Sandown against a rival who
has struggled this season so far and the follow up race at
Musselbrugh was a race that he could have bounced in and even though
clearly the trainer's 2nd string and at 11yo now he isn't without a
chance of running a big race despite being regarded as making up the
numbers in this race. Not badly handicapped in this race receiving
weight from most he handles the conditions well and if staying could
get some prize money in a tight handicap with the course likely to
suit.
My Rating - 156
33. Comply Or Die - Beaten by
Cloudy Lane this season but then made amends for that defeat by
landing the Eider chase and if Cloudy lane is so well handicapped
Comply or Die must also be ahead of the handicapper as he bids to
return to the form that saw him get placed in a top novice chase at
Cheltenham a few seasons ago behind the likes of Trabologan. The
ground is ideal and he stayed well last time to prove his stamina
can last out over trips such as this and is the natural choice of
Timmy Murphy.
My rating - 166
34. Idle Talk - the 3rd
runner for Trevor Hemmings in a handicap that is littered with
powerful owners this season and Idle talk hasn't enjoyed the best of
seasons with some poor efforts and the hope will be that the
improved recent effort at Cheltenham means he is returning to some
sort of form for the second string of Donald MCCain. Staying trips
are yet to prove conclusive as the horse needing them and even
though trends point towards him having chances his stable mate looks
to hold him even though he looks handicapped to go well since
regressing from the top level.
My rating - 154
35. Kelami - Comes here of
the back of a fine effort in the Racing post trophy where a last
fence blunder cost him victory and is the 2nd chance for the French
trainer in this handicap. Not as good as he once was he should hold
his own in handicaps but this looks a classy race and he may not be
handicapped well against the best of these and may need luck to land
the price and isn't certain to have enough in his favour to land
this prize as he will need to be at his best.
My rating - 159
36. Milan Deux Mille - Didn't
show enough last time at Newbury to warrant a strong chance in this
race and out of all the David Pipe runners in this race he looks to
be well held in the make up of this race. Has been lightly
campaigned so far this season he is only 6yo and if going well today
could be a better proposition in this race in the future. Tom Malone
does well on the horse.
My rating - 125
37. Nadover - hard horse to
predict as he run sin and out and recent form suggest he isn't in
the best shape of late, The ground could be too lively for the 7yo
who is still quite young In the make up of this race, he would need
it to rain to have any chance of getting amongst the prize despite
some of his form suggesting that he is well handicapped to go well
in this race, but he is too accident prone to have a strong chance
in this race.
My rating - 154
38. Black Applachi - Another
who has fallen away after showing much promise in his early days as
a chaser with grade 2 form to his name and if returning to form
could well be handicapped to go well from this low mark, but the
overall impression is that the form of those chase races were not up
to much. Ground may be a concern as it dries out further as he is
best when contesting real soft ground and even though fair recent
form coming into this race he looks held on what he has achieved at
this level.
My rating - 148
39. Philson Run - Beaten 7L
by D'Argent at warwick and has enjoyed another light campaign with
this race in mind since plodding on to finish 4th 12 months ago and
at 12yo maybe last season was his last chance to land this race.
Lightly raced isn't a trait you hold with a national winner but he
hasn't been over burdened as a race horse and at 12yo he may buck
the trend with all roads pointing to this since last April. Be wrong
to totally discount him in this as he knows the way around but he is
likely to fail once again. Place prospects once again.
My rating - 148
40. Dun Doire - At last
showed some form last time after struggling since winning at the
Cheltenham festival 2 seasons ago and even though landing a small
race here and there he come here just in at the weights for Tony
martin and be no surprise to see him run a big race in this after a
poor effort when sent off as one of the favoured runners. However he
may still be paying for that season where he raised massively up the
weights and I have him still held at the top level such as this and
be surprised to see him win a race at this level now.
My rating - 137
Tissue Prices - Slim Pickings, Cloudy Lane 6/1, Comply Or Die
9/1, Kings John Castle 11/1, Snowy Morning, L'ami 14/1, Kelami,
Joacci 16/1, Fundamentalist, Tumbling Dice, Turko, Knowhere, Vodka
Bleu, Simon, 20/1, D'Argent, Mckelevy, Naunton Brook, Backbeat 25/1,
Bob Hall, Bewleys Berry 28/1, Idle Talk, Nadover, Hedgehunter 30/1,
Cornish Sett, Madison Du Berelies 33/1, No Full, Mr Pointment 35/1,
Hi Cloy, Black Applachi, Point Barrow, Baily Breeze, Philson Run,
40/1, Chelsea Harbour, Butler's Cabin 50/1, Mon Mome 66/1, Ardaghey,
Dun Doire 80/1, Milan Deux Mille 125/1, Iron Man 150/1, Contraband
500/1.
Verdict – A
top looking handicap for this race. More classy horses are taking
part in this race these days, and some of last years runners have
strong claims in the race, with Slim Pickings sure to improve for
this time around. At 10-1 he looks solid looking value. Cloudy
Lane, if in a race over normal fences and without plenty of
mistakes around him, would be a very short price favourite. The 6/1
on offer this morning is about right for his chance, in the
conditions of this race and if not winning this race today he will
land the National I feel in the next 2 seasons, so compensation can
be had. David Pipe has a strong hand in this race and his Joacci and
Comply or Die look the two to concentrate on from this yard with the
Eider winner the best of the bunch and is another at 10-1 who holds
value in this handicap. Snowy Morning has the class for this race,
but he makes too many errors over fences to be selected. However,
20-1 is a fair price to take a chance on. Kings John Castle may well
be the best of the JP horses in this race and he looks a typical
National type. With Ireland dominating this race in recent years, he
is one to note at best price 20-1. L'ami is the best chance from
France as Douman is double handed in this race and is available at
33-1 as they come for Butler's cabin and Mccoy.
Selections –
1 pt win Kings John Castle
@ 20-1(BF25's), 1 pt win Slim Pickings
@ 10-1(BF12's) & 2 pts Cloudy Lane
@ 6-1 (BF13-2)
Well Chief
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