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Preview 22 March 2008


4.10 Doncaster Handicap - Class 2 6F GD-SOFT

1. Off The Record - Peaked in July when a close 2nd at the July meeting at Newmarket after progressing well through out the spring and early summer, and could easily bounce back to form on seasonal reappearance. The ground with cut in it hasn't been the most ideal conditions but with the ground drying out he shouldn't be to far away from ideal conditions underfoot. His form tailed off last season and his last run when beaten by Genki wasn't actually far of what he achieved early season and maybe he is just in the grip of the handicapper.

My Rating - 110

2. King Orchisios - Free front going sort who is paired with a 7lbs claimer to help take the weight of his back. Recent form on the all weather hasn't had much luck and looks very much in the grip of the handicapper on this return to the turf. The ground looks on the wrong side of good for him and the trip today he has struggled many times in the past and at the top of the handicap he looks likely to struggle here today.

My Rating - 90

3. Zomerlust - The evergreen Zomerlust is very consistent over 6F on a straight galloping track such as this and could well bounce back to form after a poor effort here on last run of last season. The run behind Fonthill Road could stand him in good steed in this handicap, as he is very exposed as a handicapper at this level. The ground and trip are ideal for a big run and should be involved in the finish if holding his best form from early season last year.

My Rating - 108

4. River Falcon - Another of the old timer in this handicap having ran with such consistency over the years and still has claims at this level despite being used so regularly in these types of races. Another whose run against Fonthill Road gives him claims at this level in a handicap that may be of the lower class 2 race in terms of ability through out the field. Best over five furlongs and within grasp of his last winning mark he may need to drop a few more pounds before he is handicap to go in again.

My rating - 104

5. Burning Incense - Last seen behind another serial loser Obe Gold who he has better terms with today for this return to the track. The run prior to that behind Dabbers Ridge looks good sprinting form and he is starting to look very well handicapped to go close in this race today as that run would give him a big chance. Drying ground is likely to improve his chances of a win and he remains very well weighted to land a prize this spring. His new trainer will look to keep him ticking over but it could be a negative that Roger Charlton let him go when it looked like he could be primly handicapped for a win.

My Rating - 105

6. Green Park - Heavy ground seems to suit this horse best as he showed when landing the gosforth park sprint over five furlongs. Has struggled since landing that handicap and best run after that win was when chasing home Zomerlust on equally tough going. More rain is needed to give him claims in this handicap and the six-furlong trip hasn't been ideal for him in the past. His form in which he finished of last season suggest that he isn't to far of winning again and he is handicapped on the best of his form to go well, but he doesn't have his ideal conditions for today's handicap.

My Rating - 105

7. Gift Horse - Has always been highly thought of as a sprinter since landing the stewards cup a few years back and even though he hasn't held his form since those days he is still always of interest in handicaps such as this. Finished the season of in average form he does go well early season for connections and has enough form over six furlongs to give him claims even though a straight flat six furlongs hasn't always been ideal. The ground should be ideal but he may need a quirkier track to be at his best and his form may give him place claims at best in this handicap.

My rating - 102

8. Ingleby Arch - Yet to rediscover the form that had him running in top handicaps but comes into this horse starting to look well handicapped to land such a prize. The ground and trip couldn't be more ideal and even though he is vulnerable in big handicaps to improvers he should run his race for connections. Early season is often the time to catch the horse and he should be fit and ready to do himself justice today with a lot in his favour.

My rating - 108

9. Baby Strange - Placed in a graded race abroad back in October 2006 he missed last season through injury and isn't certain to carry his old ability based on the form this season so far. Based on these conditions he has strong claims over this flat six furlong and still has potentially more to offer as a handicapper. Goes well this early in the season he hasn't handled big fields to well in the past, but this is a much lower level then the Royal Ascot field he contested a few years back. Change of yards isn't likely to have improved the horse from his Paul Blockly days and could maybe be struggling from his early age success.

My rating - 109

10. Red Cape - Had claims in some decent races last season for his former trainer he is another who has potentially down sized in the yard that he has joined. The trip remains a question mark with a bit further more suited then this today and the ground may well be slower then totally needed. Still unexposed on ground with cut he is by Cape Cross whose offspring's are usually better on a sounder surface but handle some cut in the ground. Should be fit from the run in January his run on the all weather back last spring against Levera could well stand up in this company today, however it is unknown on how good he still is.

My Rating - 106

11. Cape - Yet another horse who has lost his way and joined a new yard she comes here for a new trainer today after finishing the season of with one of his better efforts in the last 12 months and that run gives her some strong claims if the new trainer can continue the form of the last trainer. It's hard to see a change from a top yard improving the horse and she may not be able to hold her own in a handicap that is of true class 2 statuses. This race looks below genuine class 2 forms and is a typical early season handicap. The trip and course suits and she has ran well on this surface without threatening to win.

My rating - 107

12. ExtraTerrestrial - A interesting recruit from Ireland for top northern trainer Richard Fahey and could make up into a nice handicapper for the yard in time as he is still fairly unexposed. Contested some top handicaps in his native Ireland its unknown how well handicapped he is for this today. The ground shouldn't be a problem and he could be a big improver over this trip having had a limited amount of runs over this shorter distance. The big field should ensure that the pace is good and he could well be staying on well to get back to his best form. Should be fit for first run for yard.

My Rating - 104

13. Masai Moon - Looked quite a well progressed 3yo last season and isn't certain to prove a better 4yo then 3yo for his yard, but is potentially handicapped to go well with some solid form at the back end of last season. Early spring has been good to this horse in the past seasons and he should be fit for this run today under the returning Alan Munro who had a brilliant season 2yrs ago. Yet to win a handicap at this level but the form of his Newmarket run looks strong and with early season form in the past he could be a big player from the right end of the handicap.

My rating - 109

14. High Curragh - Has a similar profile to Ingleby Arch from their 3yo days and after a average season last term he may be ready to strike this season and looks the first string of the Kevin Ryan Pair in this handicap. Handicapped to go well on the best of his form he hasn't been the most consistent over six furlong in the past or with ground with cut in and could well struggle under today's conditions. The flat nature of the course should suit his running style but I would like to see him be tried again over five furlongs especially when given quick ground underfoot. Fully exposed and races in the future look likely to suit more then today's.

My rating - 102

15. Obe Gold - Ended long losing streak when winning at Goodwood under soft conditions and has since left Mick Channon Yard for the sprint king Dandy Nichols who is the man for sprinters in handicaps where Obe Gold future lies. A former group horse he does not retain that sort of ability and is very exposed as a sprinter. Suited to the ground today he gets six furlongs well on courses such as this and from the right end of the handicap he could return to form after losing his last two runs. Should be fit for this and goes well early doors, it could be another sprint winner for Dandy Early season.

My Rating - 110

16. Blue Tomato - Won on debut for Dandy Nichols last weekend over five furlongs and returns to his more favoured six furlongs today on ground that shouldn't be as quick as it was last weekend. Different conditions today could see him struggle but he is a sprinter in form and should be ready for another big run today in a better handicap the he contested last time. At the right end of the handicap he shouldn't struggle in this company and could be back to his very best, the choice of the trainers son today who couldn't desert him after last weeks win.

My Rating - 106

17. Pusey Street lady - Has some decent enough listed form to give her some claims in a handicap against the opposite sex and the run behind the decent Ripples Maid stands up well in relation to the others best form in this race, Yet to win since her early day she may start to look quite well handicapped for the yard and sees out six furlong well. The conditions underfoot shouldn't be too much of a problem even though her wins did come on better ground and she could still improve for handicaps if you turn a blind eye to the silver cup, which is quite possibly a better handicap then the quality of this. She rates as a interest and if keeping calm she could run a big race.

My rating - 108

18. Yungabarra - Not as good as when contesting races on the all weather he was well put in his place last week in a sprint handicap and may well struggle to hold his own at this level. Another who is out of the handicap for this race today he is paired with a claimer of 7lbs and has fewer than 8 stone to carry if the jockey can do the weight. Six furlongs is his ideal trip and while the ground isn't his most ideal and he firmly exposed on turf the low weight could well help him to not trail home in last. This track should suit him but he may be best waited with in backing sense until he drops a level.

My Rating - 101

Tissue Prices - Obe Gold, Off The Record 7/1, Baby Strange, Masai Moon 9/1, Zomerlust, Ingleby Arch, Pussey Cat Lady 10/1, Cape 12/1, Blue Tomato, Red Cape 14/1, Burning Incense, Green Park 16/1, River Falcon, Extraterrestral 20/1, High Curragh, Gift Horse 25/1, Yungabarra 33/1, King Orchasies 40/1.

Verdict  Looks a open handicap as usual for a sprint and one that should offer value bets in with a good chance of landing a bumper pay day. Blue Tomato is quite well fancied after winning 6 days ago and the 6/1 on offer does look very short as the conditions last week did turn in to his favoured quick ground. The stable 2nd String could well be the answer on his first start for the yard and 16-1 looks a fair price to me, while the top weight Off the record has claims as well with his early season form and is also priced at 16-1. Masai Moon at 22-1 looks very big as well, while Baby Strange has group form to answer for. Zomerlust and Ingleby Arch add to the proven types over 6F on a flat track and hold claims in a strongly contested handicap.

Selection  Off the Record 1pt @ 16-1(BF17's), Obe Gold 1pt @ 16-1 (BF'S18's) & Masai Moon 1pt @ 22-1 (BF'S 26's)

Well Chief