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Preview 26 March 2008

4.25 Kempton Handicap Chase - Class 3 2M Gd to soft

1. Some Timbering - Been of the track for over a year after pulling up in a novice chase in very tacky heavy ground at Haydock and looked quite a interesting type over fences prior to that run with a good place effort in Ireland in a grade 3 chase for novices. Uncertain on the well being of the horse with no recent form, those efforts would have him in the thick of things here with potential improvement to come. However with question marks over the return of the horse from a lay off, you have to be cautious with these types and the top weight after time of may be to much to overcome on this return. He does however get the 2M well and has a brilliant record when contesting this trip over hurdles, the ground should be about ideal for him and if returning over fences a much more accomplished jumper of a fence he may have a chance as the class horse of the field.

My rating - 123

2. Le Burf - Hacked up latest over a longer trip then this and quite a surprise to see him stepping back in trip for this event today on a much sharper track. Has good solid form over this trip in the past and does handle give in the ground but he may be looking for a tougher test of stamina then he is likely to get today. Exposed on ground and over trip the mark he has for victory in novice event could see him as handicapped up to the hilt as he enjoyed quite a steady novice campaign. Mark Bradburne has struck up a good relationship with the horse and takes the ride again today. He may want a tougher test then 2M on this sharp track, even though the run behind a decent novice of Nicky Henderson here, gives him some claims.

My Rating - 120

3. Brave Villa - Starting to look well handicapped again and is likely to benefit from the jockeys claim today as he takes of seven vital pounds and has been well worth that claim this season. The drying ground should well suit this horse that does travel well and has good form over the minimum trip over fences. The run last time and the time before looks good form at this level and is well worth considering under the jockey in this company, back down to a reasonable mark he has however experienced a hard campaign and is very exposed and vulnerable to a improver in this handicap, but with the ground, trip and ability to travel strongly on the bridle he has every chance.

My rating - 124

4. Schinken Otto - Another horse that has a few miles on the clock and is fully exposed in the sphere he runs in today. Comes here in fairly decent form having returned to the jumping game from a stint on the all weather to chase home a half decent chaser in Ela Re and is sure to be fit for this run today. The drying ground should be in his favour and connections of this horse are hoping the ground conditions improve without the day so he can have it potentially quick underfoot by post time. Any rain would suggest he is likely to be a non-runner in this handicap as his record with any gong description with the word soft in isn't to inspiring for his supporters. Stays 2M well he shouldn't be lacking any pace for this race and a lot depends on the weather. A certain winner in the summer months.

My rating - 117

5. Mibleu - Comes here of the back of a fall and if the confidence is still in one piece he could bounce back to form that he showed at Leicester earlier in the season. Not to heavily expose as a handicap, the drying ground should be very much in his favour having struggled to handle ground with plenty of give underfoot so far this season. The Alner's have enjoyed much success this season and this horse could still make into a decent handicapper for the yard. His level of form recently needs to improve to be winning this and with the ground turning into his favour he is once again a live contender for handicaps such as this when it turns quick underfoot.

My Rating - 111

6. Beau Torrero - One of the more consistent horses in this handicap in terms of prize money obtained. Suited to good to soft ground and very effective over this trip he is handicapped to go well once again even though starting to get into the twilight of career as a chaser and is firmly exposed. Knowing what to expect from the horse he has much in favour and a nice low weight to run off here. Yet to win a class 3 handicap in his attempts he is certain to pick up more prize money when maybe dropped in level, however this doesn't look the strongest of races and with much in favour he has a chance in this handicap of maybe obtaining some more place money.

My Rating - 122

7. Romany Dream - Bounce back to form last time with a easy 6L win over Paxford Jack on Gold Cup day and will be looking to follow up again in what looks a similar type of race in terms of quality. Seven career wins for the Mare now, she has a nice racing attitude and is at the right end of the handicap as far as ability at this level goes. The win last time gives him ever chance despite the rise in the weights, maybe suggesting that he needs to improve. In a handicap full of much of much ness he has to have solid chance with so much in his favour for this event.

My rating - 126

8. Mango Catcher - Formally trained in Ireland with Paul Nolan, he makes his debut for a smaller yard today and it will be interesting to see how well the English handicapper has assessed his form here today. Based on his Irish form he has the speed for 2M and the sharp track shouldn't be too much of a concern. The drying ground should also suit him and there may be a few races to pick up with this horse throughout the summer. Form is fairly average from Ireland and he needs to improve on it to land this, but he does rate as a dark horse with the assessment by the handicapper unknown.

My Rating - 109

9. Green Gamble - Has turned the corner at the foot of the weights here and is on a hatrick bid at a level he won a novice handicap chase race back in 2005. The latest win at Lingfield was a impressive victory in which he went away to land the spoils by 11L against a exposed type and on this upgrade in class he isn't meeting anything out of the ordinary. His form suggest that he should go close in this handicap despite the 13lbs rise in the weights and with previous form at this level it would be no surprise to see him make the step up to class 3 handicap when it is basically the same as a class 4 in terms of quality in the race. More of a galloper, he will handle sharper tests such as this just as well and Richard Johnson is a positive booking for the horse.

My rating - 128

Tissue - Green Gamble 5/2, Romany Prince 4/1, Roman Villa 5/1, Some Timbering 11/2, Beau Torrero 6/1, Le Burf, Shincken Otto 9/1, Mibleu 16/1, Mango Catcher 25/1.

Verdict  Not a great handicap for a class 3 event at this track and it looks like a few of these are having preps for other upcoming engagements and a chance to get handicapped. Green Gamble is clearly on an upward curve now he has found his feet again and the win last time was impressive enough for the handicapper to harshly treat him with almost a stone up in weight. Romany Prince is the yardstick for which to judge this race around and has a strong chance as many fall below what he is capable of. Something Timbering should be monitored in the market as to his well being, while expect some money for Brave Villa who is likely to be around the 5/1 mark for this handicap and looks set to run a big race along with Beau Torrero. All in all a trappy affair and Romany Prince.

Selection  1 pt win Brave Villa @ 5-1(11-2BF) + 1 pt Win Romany Prince @ 7-1 (BF9's)

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