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Preview
23 March 2008
5.30 Musselburgh Tote sport
Casino.com Handicap class 4 5F Good to soft
1. First Order - Changed
stables since Ian Semple hung up his training boots and is now with
Linda Perrert for first run of the season. Finished 3rd here to
Blazing Heights and meets that rival all wrong at the weights today
after getting a 8lbs penalty for the defeat of Harry Up who often
finds one to good in these sprint handicap. With cut in the ground
today it isn't certain that the top weight is going to be at his
best, which would have him take this. The improvement for the change
of yard isn't likely to be too much if there is any to draw from the
change of scene. Fully exposed he is a sprinter through and through,
but is often at his best in the height of summer. The course suits.
My rating - 95
2. Bo Mcginity - A seasoned
campaigner who has many miles of the clock and is the first of two
runners in this handicap for Richard Fahey whose yard goes from
strength to strength with there handicappers. Has had a recent run
with a fair place effort on the fibre sand at Southwell and should
be fit for this return to the turf. Handles cut in the ground and
consistent over five furlongs he handles sharp tracks such as this
even though better on quirky tracks. Jamie Moriety rode the horse in
the past to good effect and is a jockey on the upgrade with his
claim still in place.
My Rating - 94
3. Blazing Heights - Last
seen trailing in last at Wolverhampton after previously showing a
good turn of foot to beat a steady bunch of handicappers over course
and distance. Needs to have luck in running with him being produced
down the outside to pick his rivals up and with some juice in the
ground he may struggle to make up ground in the same fashion as he
does on genuine good racing ground and is exposed for others to take
advantage on these conditions. Only a fair record early doors in the
season and often needs a run, so better days are likely.
My Rating - 91
4. Melalchrist - A winner
back in August last year and struggled in handicaps after being
raised in the weights and is rather hit and miss for a sprinter.
This doesn't look a bad handicap to finish of the card in terms of
quality for a class 4 handicap and plenty of these have recorded
better efforts in their career then this horse. The ground with cut
in hasn't played to his strengths in the past and with him maybe in
the grip of the handicapper he may struggle to overcome these
conditions today. Runs well over five furlongs, as it is his ideal
trip, Kevin Ryan is double handed in this handicap with Neil Callen
choosing the more unexposed type for this race today. A stiffer five
would be more ideal for this horse who goes well early season and
this may well be a prep as he skins fitter for the run.
My rating - 86
5. Rasaman - The first choice
from Kevin Ryan yard if you go by jockey bookings and even though
Neil Callen is yet to ride the horse, he is sure to have done some
work on the horse. The trip he is quite unexposed over and yet to be
tested on rain soft ground, as he will experience today, has gone
well at this level in the past and should be fit for this run, as he
is very much a spring horse. Has improvement still to come as a
sprinter that hasn't been over burdened so far and could well
improve on the Sandown run that was quite eye catching. The course
should suit as well.
My rating - 103
6. Caribbean Coral - On his
day a very accomplished sprinter, but at 9yo his best days may be
just behind him now and handicaps such as this should be paying his
way for his connections. Has several styles of running after usually
coming from last to first with a good turn of foot, he can take a
more prominent role in his races these days and with ground very
unlikely to be lightening quick which is ideal for him, he may take
a closer role in this race to give him some sort of chance in a
handicap he has the ability to win over five furlongs. Goes well
this time of the year after having a run to skin fitter and even
though very well handicapped his winning is likely to take place
after today when the ground dry out. Is well respected in this
handicap as the classiest horse in terms of old ability.
My rating - 92
7. Blue Tomato - Formally
with Milton Bradley and now with Dandy Nichols, this 7yo couldn't
have asked for two better trainers of these types of horses and
while it is uncertain to know what the plans for this horse is, not
many trainers improve sprinters like these two. Dropped back to five
furlongs for his first run for Dandy, this is often a ploy used by
the trainer on a new recruits first run and could well be used as a
launch pad for future races. His previous runs over five have had
him tapped for toe and even though the ground is certain to make it
more of a test, it is hard to see what he has showed away from fast
ground as improving the horse to have a firm say in this handicap
and this looks a fact finding mission for the yard.
My rating - 94
8. Mr Wolf - Certain to make
it a true test for these sprinters first time out as he is all pace
and even at 7yo he is able to try and run the finish out of his
rivals and with form on this type of ground he may well bounce back
to form on his seasonal reappearance after trailing in on last start
last season in the Ayr Silver cup. Effective over five even if more
suited to six furlongs he should run a big race for connection today
as he goes well fresh and handles a sharp track as well as a stiffer
test. The concern has to be does he retain his ability as he has had
plenty of runs in races such as this and last season was a poor
season dropping 12lbs in the handicap and not getting close to
winning despite running at his favourite venue. Shouldn't be far of
winning this season from this mark if he is still sound and not over
the top at 7yo.
My Rating - 95
9. Geojimali - Another
trainer who has two runners is Jim Goldie who also has Blazing
Heights in this sprint handicap and his well weighted sprinter
Geojimali is dangerously handicapped in this race, considering it
was 18 months ago that he was landing the Silver cup with a late
surge and is very much a horse that needs to have luck in running
and should be out the back with Blazing Heights looking for the pace
and gaps to come at just the right time. Likely to get a sound
enough pace in the race with front runner Mr Wolf giving them all
something to aim at, he is well capable over the minimum distance of
landing this prize. Handles cut in the ground to a average level as
his best runs have mainly came on quick ground where he can rattle
home off, he should handle the give and looks first choice of the
yard here. Hasn't got the best record fresh, but has gone well often
this time of year and with him well handicapped and not overly
exposed he has a chance at the weights today on his seasonal
reappearance.
My rating - 92
10. Yungabarra - No doubts
surrounding this horse fitness as he has been on the go for sometime
now and hasn't enjoyed the best winter on the all weather so
connections will be looking for more improvement now returning to
turf in which he is lightly raced on in comparison. Handles a sharp
five furlongs well, he has had very limited efforts on ground with
any cut in it and on the two tries so far in the formbook he has
produced very little on both tries. Not yet one to totally discount
on this type of ground, but isn't one to have too much faith in
until trying better ground looking at his profile. Yet to win
outside the autumn and winter months of the year, today's weather
should suit him and while still unexposed on the ground, this may
well lie with a more proven type.
My rating - 93
11. Circuit Dancer - A winner
in September around Chester turning track and looks the second
string for Dandy Nichols, but it would be foolish to take the
bookings as which one is more preferred as the claimer is more then
useful at doing the low weight and circuit Dancer has the pace for
five furlongs in his locker. However he is yet another horse in this
field that may struggle as he is yet to run a decent race when soft
has been in the going description and even though Musselbrugh drains
well the current weather must leave some juice underfoot. Always
needs a run on first start of the season he is likely to come on for
this run today and is likely to make good use of his current mark in
the near future around a sharp 5F.
My rating - 92
12. Steelcut - The second
runner for Richard Fahey in this handicap and quite possibly the
first choice at the weights even though on the form book he is yet
to show his true ability. Looks quite a well sized horse for the
sprinting game his form was just pointing towards a potential
winning run on last run of the season at Pontefract over five
furlongs and may be better suited to quick ground then slower
conditions based on that run. Yet to really show any form on a
softer surface in his handful of runs he has had and based on
breeding he doesn't look likely to benefit to much for some give
despite looking at him and his action he should act on it.
My rating - 93
13. Stolt - Has been used
over the winter in sprint handicaps over five furlongs and has only
tasted victory in one handicap in quite a heavy campaign. Should be
fit for this run today after running in February he often is best
after a much shorter break in between races. Stays the trip well and
handles soft ground well and isn't overly exposed on this type of
ground so there could be improvement to come despite being heavily
raced over 5F this winter. Small yard will be looking to spring a
surprise here and his level of form at the weights today could see
him go very close with good runs around this time of year.
My rating - 102
14. Tartatartufartu -
Unmistaken name for a horse and one that has always promised so much
but has never really delivered on a regular basis on the turf and
has really benefited from running on the all weather in which he has
recorded wins on a regular basis. Ideally produced on sharp five
furlongs track he has handled ground with give in the past and with
a low weight will be hoping for the ground to get softer as the
softer it gets the better it seems for this horse who has enjoyed
the deep fibre sand this winter and should have everything in place
for a big run in this handicap if reproducing his all weather form.
My rating - 103
Tissue - Rasaman 4/1, Stolt, Tartatartufartu 9/2, First Order, Mr
Wolf 9/1, Bo Mcginity, Blue Tomato 10/1, Steelcut, Yungabarra 14/1,
Caribbean Coral, Geojamli, Circuit Dancer 16/1, Blazing Heights
20/1, Melachirst 33/1.
Verdict – With
Stolt confirmed now as a non-runner it could become a straight match
up between the bottom weight and the unexposed new recruit for Kevin
Ryan who looks a massive price at around 8/1 with the bookmakers and
9-1 on the exchanges. First Order and Mr Wolf looks to both have
chances of the proven types in this race and the latter has had some
support so far this morning in which the best price available is
12-1. The bottom weight is well priced at 9-1 for this race, while
Geojamli has been installed as favourite based on his reputation and
is often under priced. Bo Mcginity is the consistent sprinter in the
race and sets the yardstick.
Selection –
1 pt e/w Rasaman
@ 8-1 (BF10's) + 1 pt win Mr Wolf @
12-1 (BF15's)
Well Chief
Best of luck and Happy Easter
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