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Preview -
27 Feb 2008
4.10 Folkestone – Kent National
Handicap Chase class 3 (5yo+ 0-130) 3M 7F GD-SFT
1. Pass me by – Has quite a
few questions to answer having pulled up on four of his five starts
this season. Beaten by Ironside for whom he is better of at the
weights with this fragile horse has to shoulder top weight once
again this season and with his wellbeing in question you wouldn’t
want to be taking to short a price of him running back to his best.
On old form he was quite consistent and when he does put his best
foot forward he is talented, however with a few improvers in the
race he may be best looked over again here.
Tissue price – 11/1
2. Lucky Nellerie – Made all
last time in good fashion and bounced right back to form having
previously struggled to give any sort of running. Stays these trips
well for a front-runner and could turn the taps on enough in front
to run the finish out of these. The better conditions underfoot
maybe the biggest concern for the supporters of this horse, but he
has shown in the past that he is able to deal with it and could well
be improving to a horse that they thought he could be looking at the
races he has contested. Goes well this time of year and is suited to
the sharp nature of the track.
Tissue Price – 4/1
3. The Gangerman – third in
this handicap but carrying under 11 stone shows what sort of class
has turned up for this handicap and this horse is quite exposed over
marathon distances and has very little improvement left in him by
looking at the size of him. Stays all day he has got a big heart and
with a impeccable record in this class and ability to handle
conditions well eh should go close of a nice racing weight and looks
one of the few likely to win this handicap.
Tissue price – 4/1
4. Countess Trifaldi –
Unexposed chaser who gives this race a bit of a edge to it as he is
clearly talented having placed at the Cheltenham festival behind
Butlers Cabin. Still likely to have improvement with better ground
suiting he rates as one of the few who could generally be ahead of
the handicapper. The Scudermore’s team up in this race and the 4th
at Haydock and the 2nd in a novice chase so far this season shows
that he is in form good enough to land this class 3 handicap.
Tissue Price – 6-1
5. Ironside – Winner at big
odds at Plumpton back in January this exposed chaser has a lot in
favour today with track & trip suiting as well as having form at
this level to give him a decent chance. However the ground may be
slightly on the fast side for him, which has to be a concern. Well
beaten by Finzi last time he should do better this time but in
general looks to be in the grip of the handicapper.
Tissue Price – 9-1
6. Iris De Blame – Former
French raider has had some fair efforts over fences in this country
so far, but this looks a much tougher race and hasn’t got to much
weight in hand to maybe hold the likes of The Gangerman & Lucky
Nellerie. However he does have some improvement still left in him
and soon as the penny drops may well start to show some ability. His
recent level of form is slightly below what is needed here today and
conditions have to be a concern.
Tissue Price – 12/1
7. Keepatem – The 12yo has
still yet to fully take to handicap chasing and often seems to
struggle with the handicapper as he is clearly going the wrong way.
Largely inconsistent, he does seem to have limitations with stamina
on what he has shown this term. Stayed well over marathon distances
last term his best recent effort was over 3M at Lingfield on heavy
ground and may want dropping back to those types of trips to start
showing form again. The low weight may help him to turn around his
fortunes but you wouldn’t want to take a chance on single figure
odds given that he once did look half decent.
Tissue Price – 12/1
8. Supperrollercoaster – Non Runner
9. Topless – Another unexposed type that could well be ahead of
the handicapper in which he could more then close up on the
Gangerman at these weights today. Suited to better ground and has
stayed over 3M before well enough to suggest stamina isn’t too much
of a problem with the ground like this. Fell latest when working
into contention, there is more to come and could well run a big race
today.
Tissue Price – 7/1
1. Hazeljack – Grand old
horse of 13yo is well out of the handicap and looks set to make up
the numbers in the hope of getting in the money if the non-stayers
don’t get the trip.
Tissue Price 33/1
Tissue – The Gangerman, Lucky Nellerie 4/1, Countess Trifaldi
6/1, Topless 7/1, Ironside 9/1, Pass me by 11/1, Iris De Blane,
Keepatem 12/1, Hazeljack 33/1.
Verdict – The
Gangerman & Lucky Nellerie are two horses that have much in favour
and the fact Pass Me By off loads the weight on them both gives them
strong claims to land this race, however Countess Trifaldi is one
that could spring a surprise, while topless is one to note for
future races.
Selection –
The Gangerman 2pts win @ 4-1
(BF4’s)
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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