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Preview - 25 Feb 2008


3.30 Hereford Pertemps People development Group Handicap hurdle class 3 (4yo+0-130) 2M 1F Good

1. Doctor David – Was given a tough task last time in a grade 3 handicap at Newbury in which he showed up well for quite some way but was outclassed in the end when the race started to develop and the drop back in class is likely to help him from top weight in a race full of improving types. Proven at this level he does have improvement still left in him but whether he has enough to counter the weight is to be seen even though he has a fair few factors in his favour and wont mind the drying ground.

Tissue Price – 20/1

2. Kanad – One of the more exposed handicappers in the field and one that progressed up the ranks in his novice season and has a easier target then what he has achieved so far. From joint top weight he has to concede weight to a few unexposed types but is proven to go well and could well improve again with the conditions underfoot improving and potentially returning him to his best form which at this level is eye catching.

Tissue Price – 14/1

3. Tagula Blue – Has proven class if you take his grade 2 novice success as genuine top class form in which he beat the talented Moon Over Miami in what looks a fairly decent novice event given the stables represented in the race. Struggled since winning that race and has started to drop back down the handicap, which has allowed him just below top weight in this race today. This is most probably the easiest race he has had since winning the grade 2 events and has form in those better races that will give him a squeak, as he isn’t overly exposed. Ground has to be a bit of a concern as he does need cut under foot to be his best and may struggle against something more progressive under the conditions.

Tissue Price – 14/1

4. Mountain – had no chance in the early season handicap against the likes of sizing Europe and Osana who have proved that to be a above handicap for this season in there position in the champion hurdle market and Mountain who has flopped twice at Cheltenham since making a decent enough start to hurdling for Jonjo O’Neil at Sandown which had him fancied for the Triumph hurdle of the back of that. Bit of a temperamental character he was top class on the flat and may want further then 2M over hurdles to be at his best or a big field with a strong pace which he could easily have today. One not always to put to much faith in with what we have seen but this rates as his easiest chance for some time and with a lot more to offer he could make a mockery of his mark if jumping soundly with conditions suiting him today.

Tissue Price – 6/1

5. Echo Point – reverting to hurdling from chasing having been a campaigned over fences since his days as a novice hurdler and may be using this as a sharpener for the festival and a confidence booster after falling last time out over fences. Looks quite exposed in comparison to the others in the race and even though a listed class runner-up he may struggle to have the pace of old over hurdles in what is a decent handicap for a Monday race day at Hereford. Nicky Richards yard is in fine form at present with winners on Saturday and Echo Point could run a fine race here today if handling the faster conditions underfoot.

Tissue Price – 16/1

6. Oh Crick – Alan King must be feeling much better with stable star My Way De Solzan back to nearing his best in time for the festival and his Oh Crick has struck up a great relationship with choc Thornton and will be hoping to continue his progression with a decent handicap win here today having already shown his ability at this level well already with a handicap hurdle win last time at Exeter in which he had to work to land but did readily in the end. Has quite a fair few things in favour from past experiences but has to overcome the faster conditions he is unknown on and could well run a big race even if not having the reputation of the classy Mountain has.

Tissue Price – 10/1

7. Proud to be Irish – Hard to weight up the Irish form in terms of handicapping and this horse who comes over after pulling up back in August has fitness to overcome as he has never won fresh and will no doubt be better for the run unless he is a blot on the handicap for his return. Looking at the form he has shown its unlikely he performs like a Tony martin handicap blot and is best watched on this return to action.

Tissue Price – 33/1

8. Hue – another of the more exposed runners in the race but still lightly raced enough to draw some progression from changes to riding styles or trips etc. However for today’s run he has been tried and tested under the conditions and has form at this level and a nice racing weight. However there are a few in this race that seem to progressing a lot quicker then him and a few dropping down in levels to maybe just outclass him enough that a place may be the best he has on his side, plus a few question marks on the stamina side of things as he seems to prefer a stiffer test then this.

Tissue price – 16/1

9. Supsonic – Created a good impression when a novice hurdler at Sandown beating a useful French import of Alan King when still with Philip Hobbs and has since been transferred out of the top yard after never showing the same performance and is really struggling for some form at present and maybe is best watched until showing so form as he is talented but clearly out of love with the game.

Tissue Price – 28/1

10. Presidential Royal – Still with Philip Hobbs unlike his form stable mate and a horse that was well thought off before flopping in bumpers and struggling to come to grips with racing. Got to grips with hurdling and then went chasing as he has been ear marked as a chasing type given his size. However he flopped on his only start over fences making a crashing fall and has since been kept over hurdles. Improvement is likely to come for the sounder surface he will encounter today as he is well bred for this type of ground and hopefully can see him return to some sort of form with much in favour.

Tissue Price – 22/1

11. Approved Force – has to be considered at this level having had his sights set quite high already as a novice hurdler in which he was well beaten in a grade 1 hurdle race. Tries better ground for the first time since winning over hurdles back in November and should improve for the return to this surface after getting bogged down in the mud. Could end up in the Fred winter handicap at Cheltenham if giving a good account today and has a lot in favour if he could master the big field, which his only flop has come in to date. Has strong novice form and the weights are kind to him.

Tissue Price – 6/1

12. Silmi – Cant draw to much from the trainer as he is unknown to myself, but his horse who didn’t run to form in a grade 1 hurdle in France last time should find this level a lot more to his liking and is the dark horse in the field I feel. Could still be improving over this trip and under these conditions the run at Cheltenham is good solid looking form for this level and in receipt of weight to quite a few other similar profile horses he must have a chance if still in the same form and shouldn’t be discounted on the trainer or the run in france.

Tissue price- 9/1

13. Paddy’s Tern – Well beaten at Newbury last time behind Orcadian last time and needs to find significant improvement to close the gap on quite a few of these and what they have achieved so far. Doesn’t come into the race totally out of form and there is improvement to come but whether it is enough for him to be winning this handicap it is hard to be filled with to much optimism. The ground is unknown but on breeding you would expect him to improve for the better conditions but his best so far has been when there has been plenty of juice underfoot.

Tissue Price – 20/1

14. Mickmacmagoole – Hard to know what would have happened if he didn’t fall at Cheltenham when closing up on the leaders going as well as any in the race and the fact the winner was made favourite for a grade 3 handicap hurdle after that run. In a easier race then that day and of a low weight he is still unexposed and been sent of a single figure price in all starts over hurdles so far. A winner already over hurdles he has a progressive look to him and in receipt of weight to other types similar to him he could take all the beating with plenty in favour.

Tissue Price – 3/1

15. Star Of Canterbury – Another unexposed type near the foot of the weights and having been kept to novice events until last run in which he was pulled up he may need the up most faith that he hasn’t been handicapped out of winning at this level. His win over course and distance in a early season novice event on quick conditions suggested that he had ability to make it at this level as he hacked up in good fashion and with a return to those conditions and track today he could surprise from a low weight and may be one to give another chance to at this level in handicaps. Has to prove his fitness but could still prove to be a decent enough hurdler from a small yard.

Tissue price – 18/1

16. Salinas – better known as a chaser and the one horse in the field that is very exposed as a handicapper and shouldn’t be able to beat these progressive nice types despite been at the foot of the handicap and at a level he has won in the past. Hasn’t got as much in favour as expected and form coming into this race is no better then quite a few of these.

Tissue Price – 50/1

Tissue – Mickmackmagoole 3/1, Approved Force, Mountain 6/1, Silmi 9/1, Oh Crick 10/1, Tagula Blue, Kanad 14/1, Hue, Echo’s Point 16/1 Star of Canterbury 18/1, Doctor David, Paddy’s tern 20/1, Presidential Royal 22/1, Supsonic 28/1, Proud to be Irish 33/1, Salinas 50/1.

Verdict – Not a bad handicap hurdle for the track and the favourite could well be ahead of the handicapper for this race from nearing the bottom of the handicap and it appears the bookies are not taking any chances offering under 2/1 that something else could well be progressing into a decent hurdler to follow as this race is littered with potential. Mountain was well hyped prior to his hurdling debut and the two races he has been found wanting in have been races at the strong end of the hurdling and could well still make into a high class hurdler if jumping with efficiency on this better surface. Approved Force & Silmi both offer novice form to take into account in this race and the latter from a unknown yard has been given little respect by the book and is best priced 40-1. The former looks a nice type and could surprise the favourite here with some solid form to his name while Oh crick is on a roll. A decent race in which we have a grade 2-novice winner involved and should give a few pointers to future winners.

Selection – 1 pt win Approved Force  @ 16-1 (BF16’s), 1 pt win Mountain @ 8-1 (BF8’s) & 1/4 pt win Silmi @ 40-1 (BF69-1)

Well Chief