|
Preview
23 February 2008
3.15 Kempton - The Racing post
handicap chase Grade 3 3M Good
1. Gungdu - The antepost
favourite for this handicap for the champion trainer and a horse who
seems to just fail to make the cut of level weights at the top of
the chasing game, still seems to be progressing and could carry on
improving having looked ideally suited to this trip last time at
sandown where he was always holding burntoakboy in the finish.
Suited to several things today he wont want the ground to dry out
further then it has done as he has a action for getting his toe in
and even though running with credit after being turned out in 3
weeks he does prefer a little bit more time in between his races but
not enough to totally discount him. One of the classiest horses in
this field he is certain to be thereabouts but he has the weights
stacked against him.
Tissue Price - 7/1
2. Simon - Win in this race
last year had him shortening for the grand national as he put up a
brilliant performance to land this from Cornish Sett on a lower
mark. Struggled with the handicapper since that day but the 2nd to
Over the Creek suggests that he wouldn't be totally out on his feet
but this is a better race then that and to retain his prize today he
has to concede weight to some useful sorts on ground that is quicker
then ideal. Fair run today will see him run in the national again
and he is certain to give it his all today.
Tissue Price - 16/1
3. Le Volfoni - The 2nd
string for Paul Nicholls ran a cracker to chase home Tamarinbleu at
Cheltenham over shorter then this trip and was staying on last time
behind Vodka Bleu after hitting a flat spot and could well improve
for this extra trip on a sharp course and with the claimer knocking
of the pounds on his back he could well run a big race today as he
is a smart travelling bridle horse who will be suited to this kind
of track. Ground could do with some cut which is the case with most
in this handicap and the slight give may have him getting away with
it and given the grade 2 form he has shown in the past and the
interest of going over this trip he could well run a surprisingly
big race.
Tissue Price - 12/1
4. Ungaro - Beaten by a smart
horse last time this grade 1 novice winner of the Feltham here back
in 2006 looks like he is getting back to his best and could well win
this handicap today under Tom O'Brien who done nothing wrong up at
Doncaster. Suited to the ground, which is a big advantage and
clearly suited to the track having picked up his most catching
performance here and if settling well should stay every yard of the
trip and could well give the trainer another big success at this
track.
Tissue Price - 6/1
5. Iron Man - Paid his way in
the summer for Peter Bowen and seems very consistent around those
months for the Welshman. Hard to see him being to competitive in
this wide open handicap and has often struggled in graded handicaps
in the past and from this weight looks very well held against better
quality then he is use to mastering over this trip.
Tissue Price - 50/1
6. Dream Alliance - Ran a
cracker behind Denman in the hennessy but was entitled to in that
handicap and has since struggled to hold the form up for the gold
cup hopeful. However he was set to win last time when out in front
at Exeter in a fairly easy race by his standards and that unseating
was costly for the horse. Is another horse in the handicap who has
conditions underfoot going against him as it dries out and may
struggle from this mark against the better handicapped horses in the
field with seemly very little in his favour.
Tissue price - 28/1
7. Palarshan - Surprised to
see this horse away from Cheltenham as he only seems to run these
days and this is his first run away from that track where he
finished down the field in this race behind Farmer Jack in 2005 in
which he was injured afterwards. Come back well at last season
festival and still retains his ability he has been in good form of
late with consistent runs at head quarters and could have more to
come given the extra distance being tried again on ground that
suits. Should be ready to go as he is best fresh and could well run
a place if staying the trip well.
Tissue Price - 14/1
8. Kelami - Was swinging in
behind and starting to make his move at Sandown when the Frenchman
was once again put out the side door on English soil and the
introduction today of Micky Fitz should help this horse especially
around Kempton race track which he rides so well. Seasoned
campaigner in this field but at 10yo he should still hold his best
and wouldn't be a surprise to see him bounce back to his best which
may be needed to win this handicap today. Has the class and always
in races such as this, he has much in favour and is respected.
Tissue Price - 7/1
9. Black Hills - Seemly has
paid for his consistency at a lower level and may well struggle for
a while from this current mark as he needs to improve to land a race
such as this and even though he could well still being going the
right way at 9yo and not totally exposed on the conditions today,
this looks a marker for the trainer to find out more on the horse
ability and where they go from now.
Tissue Price - 33/1
10. Ardaghey - One of those
horses for Nigel Twiston-Davies that is clearly talented by very hit
and miss and firmly exposed these days which doesn't leave him with
much chance of landing this handicap from his current handicap mark
having failed to show much at the top level and with more
progressive rivals in the handicap a place must be the best they can
hope for with this handicapper who is consistent over this trip.
Tissue Price - 40/1
11. Wee Robbie - Can be a
little one paced at times and was just outclassed in a novice event
behind Silverburn latest who is a live contender for the staying
novice chase at the festival in a few weeks time, so there was no
disgrace in that run even though he will need to improve on it
against seasoned handicappers at the top level and even though
fairly weighted for today's race he needs to find more. Has had the
same amount of runs as Gungdu but less over fences he has ran some
big races in the past and should be thereabouts at this level of
this weight. Ground suits but the biggest concern is over his
stamina having shown more over shorter.
Tissue price - 9/1
12. Bagan - Put up a very
impressive performance last time out at Warwick and comes here in
the form of his life which is a big bonus for Charlie Mann and Noel
Fehily. Only raised by 3lbs for that success he is still improving
and could hold his own at graded level now he has got to grips with
chasing as he has enough class for a race such as this from the
current mark. However he has a few things to prove under the
conditions today and the trip so can't totally be counted on but
looking at his profile he shouldn't be lacking stamina and the
capability to handle better ground such as this and is a dark horse
for this.
Tissue price - 14/1
13. Yardbird - Finished quite
some way behind Ungaro last time at Doncaster and even though he has
good form around here looks a little out of his depth to be a strong
player despite the receipt in weight being a bonus. Fully exposed
but stays the trip well he should be running on past beaten horses
but looks up against it at this level as he needs improvement but
does go well for Choc Thornton.
Tissue Price - 25/1
14. Burntoakboy - Has got
back to his best and looks set to be just as good over fences as he
was over hurdles. Stays this trip well on what we saw last time when
closing up on gungdu is receipt of weight he is likely to go well
again here today getting more weight from that rival for the sandown
run. However it's a different track and the hill, which he stays up
well, may have assisted him and there isn't as much improvement in
him as Gungdu so the turning around of form isn't clear-cut but he
is in form and has a low weight.
Tissue Price - 9/1
15. Herecomesstanley - Gets
in at the weights and conserved his handicap mark with a run over
hurdles last time. However he looks well short at this level having
won only at a low level in handicaps and this race is a massive step
up in class for one of the most exposed handicappers in the field.
Hard to see him having the improvement to run a big enough race to
trouble the principals and has little appeal apart from having a low
weight and that he stays the trip well.
Tissue Price - 28/1
Tissue Price - Ungaro 6/1, Gungdu, Kelami 7/1, Burntoakboy, Wee
Robbie 9/1, Le Volfoni 12/1, Bagan, Palarshan 14/1, Simon 16/1,
Yardbird 25/1, Herecomesstanley, Dream Alliance 28/1, Black Hills
33/1, Ardaghey 40/1, Iron Man 50/1.
Verdict – An
open tricky looking renewal of this great handicap race. Ungaro is
my market leader to go one better then at Doncaster. He has much in
his favour to take all the beating. The exposed Kelami is
handicapped to go well if putting up his best, while Gungdu is still
shaping the right way and deserves respect from the top of the
weights. Burntoakboy and Wee Robbie both deserve respect from lower
in the handicap for different reasons, while the 2nd String for Paul
Nicholls shouldn't be dismissed lightly in this handicap.
Selection –
1 pt Ungaro
@ 6-1 (BF 7.0) & 2 pts Kelami
@ 16-1 (BF 17.0)
Well Chief
|