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Preview - 12 Feb 2008


4.10 Newcastle Handicap chase class 4 (5yo+0-110) GD-sft 3M

1. Silent Bay – Goes well for Brian Hughes who takes of his 3lbs claim to make the weight more bare able for this low level handicapper and the horse could still be improving over fences having shaped better on his last few runs over fences and especially over trips such as this around Newcastle race course. Has some of the best form coming into this handicap in which he finished in front of a few of this last time under similar conditions to which he favours. More testing ground may have increased his chances, but he is likely to run another creditable race based on that Newcastle form being a good guide to this handicap.

Tissue Price – 10/1

2. Thorsgil – need to return to form to have a chance of this mark and if he was to run back to his best he could well take this handicap. Lightly raced the form he has shown since winning at Hexham in a hunters chase has seen him struggle, but he did run a cracker in the summer when finishing best of the rest at Stratford, however that form hasn’t worked out and even though lightly exposed to racing, it would take a leap of faith to be backing just yet with not a lot in favour on what we have seen.

Tissue Price – 14/1

3. Trison’s Star – On day is more then capable of winning at this low level and should be coming into him self now with the sun on his back as he is tailor made for spring jumping, better is expected today then what he showed at Newcastle last time and won’t be a surprise to see him bounce back to form for Ferdy Murphy and Timmy Murphy calm riding. Stays further then this trip but is effective and even though exposed does look the class horse in the race and has to be of interest here.

Tissue Price – 6/1

4. Predestine – Was very unlucky last time in the mud after running a brilliant effort at Warwick where a last fence mistake cost him, had stout staying types such as Finzi behind him last time over this trip, weather you can use that as a straight forward reflection on his ability is a little dubious as that rival would have needed further then just over 3M around the tight track at Warwick. A true mud lark may have his work cut out with a rise in the weights and slightly quick conditions today, but he does seem in good health with himself at present he should go close if in the same mood.

Tissue Price – 13/2

5. Hold The Bid – Could easily be paying for the consistence that has seen barely out of the frame in the last 6 months and his run at Newcastle last time behind two of the rivals today may be very hard to reverse. However he could easily surprise that form and turn it on its head as there is a feeling he may have not been at his best here last time. Has quite a few things in his favour today a more positive from Keith Mercer may have him produced at the right time to hold on and is certain to run another big race for Sue Smith here.

Tissue Price – 11/2

6. Auntie Kathleen – Is very much the one they all have to beat after a good run at this track last time in which she benefited from a previous run here to just find one to good on the day having stayed on and even though Mares can be temperamental she should take the beating if jumping round like she has proven in the past. Hard to find to many holes in her chances here as she has a lot in her favour and with what improvement can be drawn from her as she is fairly unexposed she would have to be disappointing if not at least making her presence felt here.

Tissue Price – 2/1fav

7. Best China – one that looks readily to be discounted in this class as he has shown very little over fences to get carried away and with the ground drying out it doesn’t look a ideal placement for this horse whose best effort came when staying on from far back to claim 2nd at Ayr in which many of the principals fell by the wayside.

Tissue Price – 33/1

8. Low Reactor – Was in the rear when falling at the 12th in that Newcastle race that had been so well documented and to know how close he would have gone would have to be a guess. Well beaten by Hold the bid earlier after recording two sound chase runs, the better conditions underfoot is likely to bring much improvement from this horse. A winner over course and distance he has a low weight and maybe shouldn’t be discounted to readily based on the last run as it may have been two early to tell if he could have made a race of it with the others. Has quite a lot in favour today and has a pilot who gets on well with him so there is no reason for him not to run a big race with the tongue strap back on.

Tissue price – 6/1

Tissue – Auntie Kathleen 2/1, Hold the Bid 11/2, Low reactor, Trison’s Star 6/1, Predestine 13/2, Silent Bay 10/1, Thorsgil 14/1, Best china 33/1.

Verdict – On a poor days racing Auntie Kathleen could well give favourite backers a good day as she looks to hold a very solid chance of landing this simple race before moving on to better races then this and is Trison’s Star she has one horse that may be able to give her a race if returning to his best. Low Reactor is frustrating and has his own ideas about the game and Hold the Bid may well turnout to be the solution to this handicap under Keith Mercer. However Auntie Kathleen has already beaten these around here and looks the most open to improvement and should be there about today providing she doesn’t fall or Part Company with her jockey.

Selection – Auntie Kathleen 2pts win @ 4-1 (9-2BF) + 3pts @ 4-5 (1-1BF)

Best of luck all

Well Chief