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Preview - 11 Oct 2008


1.40 Kelso Handicap Hurdle class 2 Heavy Ground 0-140

1. Torkinking – A decent handicapper on his day and one who enjoys the mud over this trip and should stay in the conditions to good effect today. Given a much better chance today then when contesting the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle behind Harhibald and should be on premises come the finish but under top weight looks vulnerable to a opponent who could be on the upgrade.

Tissue Price – 16/1

2. Bywell Beau – Course specialist who has a grade 2 win to his name and has been battling the handicapper since that top performance at this track under today’s pilot who has struck up a good understanding with the horse. Conditions are very much in favour for this horse and are defiantly capable of carrying this large weight in conditions at his favourite venue.

Tissue Price – 6/1

3. First Look – Has been over fences of late in which he has been hard to win with despite seemly looking like the winner the majority of times in his races, another who shouldn’t mind the conditions underfoot he could be well treated on this return to Hurdles, but given the type of tracks that suit him Im unsure if in today’s competitive affair he will be good enough to land a blow in this and looks held on this return to hurdling even though the yard have a trio of runners in this race and the jockey booking suggest he is there main hope.

Tissue Price – 20/1

4. Hernando’s Boy – Has the class to win this race today despite never competing in a class 2 handicap of this nature. Handles tough going such as this well enough to suggest he has a chance of running a big race but his best most probably lies more on better quality ground and even though well effective over course and trip and looking progressive, he may struggle to give weight away to a few of these under the conditions.

Tissue Price – 12/1

5. Mohayer – One of the youngest horses in the field for today’s race and one that has shown up to be quite consistent over this trip and has handled the ground well before so is likely to have a big shout today with a reasonable weight to run off and a progressive nature he should be one that they have to beat with fitness assured and recent form to go on promising.

Tissue Price – 4/1

6. Chef De Cour – Looked a smart horse when winning on return to the track for Lenny Lungo and made good work of a lenient handicap mark and a low class race for a horse that goes fresh. Wilson Rennick keeps the ride having been a passenger through out that race and with trip, ground and course all in favour he should have good chance of following up. However this is a much tougher race and he isn’t fresh this time, which may result in a less explosive performance. He will sit quietly out the back and be gradually produced on the ground and shouldn’t be discounted too lightly.

Tissue Price – 10/1

7. Astronomic – Was top class on the flat in handicaps and is yet to show the same level of ability for Howard Johnson over hurdles but has been given some hard tasks in graded affairs as a novice hurdler. Liking for the ground and a sharp track such as this should see him go well at this lower level on seasonal reappearance in which he has gone well fresh before in the past and trainer knows how to get them ready. The trip however may be shorter then needed round a sharp track, but there is better to come.

Tissue Price – 14/1

8. Ursis – Once a very promising hurdler and then made into a decent chaser winning a grade 2 event at Wetherby. Not the same horse these days and was rather disappointing when well beaten by Ring the boss in the William Hill Handicap hurdle on Tingle creek day. May be worth another chance with conditions in his favour but needs to put his best foot forward to turn his career around. Fitness is no concerns as he has had plenty of time to get over his exertions and is maybe best watched at present in another competitive handicap despite being back below a winning mark.

Tissue Price – 14/1

9. Culcabock – One of the most exposed runners in the field but one that continues to run well all be it at a lower level. Consistent on all types of ground and runs his heart out no matter what over a trip that for one that is quite exposed and the level of consistence shown is of a high level and should be respected. However this is a tough ask and the 11lbs penalty that was picked up for his shock win looks to have put paid to his chances for a while.

Tissue Price – 20/1

10. Yourman – Second of the runners in David Johnson colours and the second string on jockey bookings. Hard to see this horse getting overlay involved in the finish of this race and looks very much up against it on form of last few runs. Not the same horse as old and is very much one to avoid until showing some ability of old and then he may be a betting proposition at a reasonable handicap mark.

Tissue Price – 50/1

11. Storymaker – Just makes it into the handicap proper and has a strong chance of bouncing back to form with a big run here today. Suited to the low weight he is ideal on a testing surface and after being given a trip to far last time at Haydock he should ideally benefit from this 2M trip around a course that suits and his regular pilot doing the steering. Effective in this class of race his yard are small but have a half decent horse for there stable star and it is all set up for a big run today with some more improvement likely over this trip.

Tissue price – 9/2

12. Solitary Palm – Brings the unexposed part of the race to the table but has been tried solely over this trip and on testing ground so the ability shown isn’t to unconcluded and it is just more of a matter of wondering if natural improvement is likely to be enough to bridge the gap on first start at this level. Hasn’t shown to bad form in recent races and shouldn’t be overly disgraced against these from the bottom of the weights and the more desperate the ground becomes the better chance this gelding has.

Tissue Price – 14/1

13. Shares – Has put up a good recent performance when winning over fences and reverts back to hurdles for this reasonably decent handicap, better over fences then hurdles in my view, he has the scalp of astronomic over fences already to his name but that was more down to that rivals in ability to jump cleanly then the gulf in class and from out of the handicap today may well struggle in this handicap to have a strong say in the outcome. Fairly exposed and yet to try this level opponents he has a fair chance under the conditions of the race but is very inconsistent and most probably need a easier class of race.

Tissue Price – 40/1

Tissue Prices – Mohayer 4/1, Storymaker 9/2, Bywell Beau 5/1, Chef De Coer 10/1, Hernando’s Boy 12/1, Solitary Palm, Astronomic, Ursis, 14/1, Torkinking 16/1,Culacbock, First Look 20/1, Shares 40/1, Yourman 50/1

Verdict – Mohayer looks like a horse that could take a lot of beating today but in the conditions the low weight on the progressive storymaker could be just too hard to overcome and with the proven Bywell Beau setting a good standard to judge around here this handicap could be a very good pointer for future Scottish handicaps around the northern circuit. Chef De Coer is a potential each-way bet here.

Selection –  3 pts Mohayer  5-1 win (9-2 bookies) is a decent price, place 5-4 on betfair, 3pts.

 Best of luck all

Well Chief