|
Preview
8 December 2007
3.10 The paddy
power Handicap Listed Handicap 2M 110yards Heavy
The rain keeps coming and the ground that had many walking over
the line yesterday will be very testing today. This listed handicap
has many unexposed types in the field today, including European
Dream, Oceanos Des Obeux, Pace Shot and Valiant Shadow. This makes
this listed handicap an interesting handicap hurdle. Overstrand,
Heathcote and Ursis are proven at a high level of hurdling, while
the likes of Ring the Boss, Kanad, Wingman and Chiaro are
handicappers that could well go on to be a force at this higher
level.
The stats have been very much in favour of 4yo's in this race and
more importantly a low racing weight as the ground becomes very
testing on the clay like ground of Sandown at this time of year.
Overstrand bucked the trends for age last season, when winning this
race as a 7yo and is allotted top weight in his bid to defend his
crown, after being raised 22lbs last season from this victory.
Paired with a 7lbs claimer, he has a tough ask today, with so many
progressive and unexposed types in the field. It will be a big
surprise if he was able to go in again as a 8yo in this handicap
under the conditions and the weight. Heathcote, a grade 3-handicap
hurdle winner, is the only other horse in the field to carry 11
stone, But with his usual 5lbs claimer, he has the weight taken off
as well. Chiaro, the next in the weights, showed little on his
return, but is likely to have needed that run and may be better this
time around.
Breedsbreeze, for champion trainer Paul Nicholls, ran out a
impressive winner last time in a maiden hurdle at Chepstow and will
have a totally different race to contend with today. The handicapper
has taken no chances with this novice hurdle on his handicap debut.
In the race he won, the 2nd had finished 2nd to his stable mate, the
highly thought of Thetotherone. This is much tougher than that
maiden win and this 2M stiff track may not be ideal, even though he
has the stamina to last home and is expected to be plodding on at
the end in the mud. Ring the Boss has been placed to good effect and
comes here in very good form, having returned this winter at Newbury
in impressive style, when slaughtering his rivals in the mud, Even
though 1lb out of the handicap, as he didn't pick up a penalty for
that win, he comes here very much in form, and having had a
racecourse canter. It seemed he should be very much the one to beat
in the conditions, if jumping round just as well right handed as
left handed.
Gary Moore is once again triple handed in this handicap over
hurdles, and is often a man who does well under this code. His Pace
Shot has landed 3 hurdle races, including a selling hurdle. He could
be the one of the 3 who could love these conditions the best and
should be spot on today. However, stablemate Wingman, who looked
progressive last time, when winning here 28 days ago, is the choice
of stable jockey Jamie Moore. He has more to offer with a low weight
and a good action for this type of ground. He is a strapping strong
horse and with 10 stone 2lbs on his back, is one that could be very
hard to beat under these conditions. He had Stoop to Conquer well
beaten, Rajam, a winner here and Kings Revenge, a very useful
yardstick, based on the run in a listed handicap hurdle at Newbury.
This ties in well with European Dream, another who should go well in
this handicap today. Between these two proven flat bred horses, they
could upset the national hunt bred horses, in what will be a good
pointer towards a whole host of handicaps at this level in the next
3 months, ending with the county hurdle at the festival in March.
Ursis has most probably the best piece of form in this handicap,
with grade 2 form to his name over fences. He was a decent hurdler
before going over the larger obstacles. He's a handicap hurdle
winner over the likes of Private Be and Kentucky Blue and he has a
nice low weight for his return to hurdling. He has a soft handling
action and isback on a winning mark. He may well be stronger now,
for the time spent over the larger obstacles and just adds more
substance to the form. All in all, a very decent looking handicap,
and one that should have some notes made for future races. Kanad is
always one that is interesting in these types of races, but is now
looking exposed and in the hands of the handicapper
Tissue Price - Ring the boss 3/1, Wingman, European Dream 6/1,
Kanad 10/1, Chiaro 14/1, Breedsbreeze, Pace shot 16/1, Heathcote,
Ursis, Valliant Shadow 20/1, Oceanes Des Obeaux 25/1, Overstand
50/1, Rebel Raider 66/1.
Verdict – Ring
the boss is ahead of the handicapper, but both Wingman and European
Dream could well also be ahead of the handicapper. The former, with
the stable having such a strong record in this race, and is this
type of races in general is the choice, with the stable jockey up
top and testing conditions that suit this strapping strong horse.
Selection –
3 pts win Wingman
@ 13/2 VC Bet (BF 7.4)
Well Chief
|