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Preview - 01 Oct 2007

 

3.30 Windsor European Breeders Fund Handicap Class 4 (3yo+ 0-85) 10F Good to soft

Draw – There is no advantage or disadvantage to be gained over 10 furlongs at Windsor despite the sharp turning nature of the track.

1 – Ryan’s Future – With a new yard after being transferred out of Linda Perrett yard. Last seen 487 days ago winning in readily fashion from the exposed Trouble Mountain and a bunch of handicappers that win in turn. Record fresh isn’t overly inspiring but it wouldn’t be the first time he has won after a break. Rain coming will be a bonus having won with cut in the ground in the past and this sharp ten-furlong test is likely to suit him. The trust on this now 7yr old retaining the ability to win handicaps such as this of top weight remains to be seen and the 7lbs higher mark just makes it that little harder then when he left the track for the year and a bit absence.

Tissue Price – 16/1

2 – Inchloch – Another who has been of the track for some while having last been seen running in a lingfield all weather handicaps back in March. Recorded as a fresh horse is quite good having won and placed from an 80+ day absence from the track in 3 starts. 10 furlongs on a galloping track is ideal and the flat nature of this track should suit him around the tight turns. Richard Quinn takes the ride for the first time and has a good record at this track. He won’t want conditions to be too soft underfoot here having failed to run as well on a softer surface. Given an easier test then he is use to on return to the track he is a couple of lbs higher then when last scoring but at 5yrs old it wouldn’t be out of the question that he could find the improvement to take this affair.

Tissue Price – 6/1

3 – I Have Dreamed – two wins from six starts on Turf this son on Montjeu makes his return to turf after having two runs on the all weather at Kempton in quick succession. Campaigned in some decent handicaps this summer he has been found a race that won’t take much winning in terms of true quality in the field. Twice a winner over 10 Furlongs as a 3 and 4yo Montjeu are usually at their best over 12 to 14F races and given that he has been constantly campaigned this season over them trips he may not appreciate this drop back to 10 furlongs in which he was last seen running over at Kempton in a race that has not worked out. Easier pickings here but there has to be a concern over the sharp 10 furlongs, however the ground may bring more improvement out of him having been kept away from ground with cut in the past and Montjeu offspring’s usually improve for these conditions.

Tissue Price – 5/1

4 – The Snatcher – Very well handicapped on 3yo form having won class 3 handicaps back in July 2006 at Sandown. Hasn’t trained on since those early days and has plummeted in the handicap to 10lbs below that current mark. Has been the subject of a few gambles this season and has become very expensive to follow. Dropped to this level on the last two occasions he made very little impression on his first start over this trip when a never threatening 7th of 10 at Newbury. Best form has been when leading off his right leg on bend-ridden tracks and a return to this way round may help him along over this trip. The quality in the field today looks no better then the last race and if he truly stays ten furlongs he would have to have place claims at the very least here. Time of year is right and the ground looks ideal for a big run.

Tissue Price – 7/1

5 – Eva Soneva So Fast – Similar to The Snatcher in terms of form and isn’t the easiest horse to win with having won just twice in twenty-two runs. A winner on the all-weather over 12Furlongs he is relatively unexposed over this trip of 10 furlongs having only contested a race over this trip twice back as a 3yo. Didn’t stay last time in a class 3 race over a longer trip then he usually races over he is well handicapped on his all-weather winning mark for this race today. Started off on turf from today’s mark he has received no help from the handicapper so far. Has often gone well in this class (mainly on the all weather) he has handled ground with give in it but winning has been done on a sounder surface and may be best waited with until the All-weather season starts in full swing.

Tissue Price – 14/1

6 – Bedizen – Has claims, as an unexposed maiden running in which is his second handicap. Last seen back in June. The form of that 10-furlong handicap at Newmarket has worked out well with the first two homes both winning of a higher mark. Suited to 10 furlongs and a bit of cut in the ground this sharper track may bring him closer to winning of the current mark. Left Sir Michael Stoute yard he is one that looks likely to be given the hurdling test from Pam Sly and one of interest under that Code with Sir Michael Stoute supplying quite a few decent horses to the jumping game. Unlikely to have improved on the flat for leaving that yard he may well use this a sharpener after 94 days of the track.

Tissue Price – 5/1

7 – Simba Sun – Last seen in a 3yo handicap at Sandown in which the form had a tie in terms of quality to the rapidly improving Caravel and is thought to have been a decent handicap. However the time of the race wasn’t anything special and there could be holes to be picked in the run with the favourite that day seemly disappointing when backed as if he would win hands down. Simba Sun was beaten a long way in that handicap and only beat home two very average looking horses given the way they weakened after having the run of the race. Given a lot to do in that race he was never going to reach the leaders and wasn’t knocked about so the form may have a lack of substance to it. A fairly decent effort behind St Andrews at this track suggest he has ability with the form of that race being franked time and time again (winner flopped though) and given the way he stayed on this extra trip should well suit today with a slightly more improvement to come from him.

Tissue Price – 5/1

8 – Nightspot – One of the most exposed runners in this race today having seen the race course a total of 33 times and this trip and ground we certainly know what to expect from him. Very much sets the standard on what he has achieved over 10 furlongs and especially at this track he is vulnerable to an improver. Dropped 3lbs for the last run at Goodwood in which he didn’t shape to badly in behind Harry Tricker the form has been franked by the winner who is an improving sort. Still higher then when winning at Newbury his all-weather mark shows he does have the ability to win of this current mark. Most probably needs further help from the handicapper but has several things to his advantage.

Tissue Price – 12/1

9 – Shela House – Still a maiden after 4 races and makes handicap debut today from a mark of 76 against experienced handicappers so her mark is decreased further to the weight for age allowance. Last seen at this track over a mile in testing conditions the son of Selkirk was no match for Kings Event who was sent of a short price favourite and has since failed of a mark of 86 to win, the second broke his maiden tag next time out so the form of that race and the 10lbs lower mark suggest he wont have pulled the wool over the handicappers eyes here. Viva La Flag the time before has won of 79 and was an easy winner over Shela House. The improvement is likely as James Franshawe does improve almost all his 3yo for handicaps and he has a consistent look to him on form figures including ground with cut in. The choice to step him up in trip could do the trick as he has stuck on at the one pace so often over a mile.

Tissue Price – 7/1

10 – Pagan Crest – Last of 10 last time at Newbury and has ground to make up on The Snatcher based on that running. Doesn’t look to be the same horse of old having finished last on his last two starts and hard to see what he needs to turn it around as the trip and conditions where totally ideal for him. The stable are running better now then at an other part of the season and he may have better to show now with more easing in the handicap. Ground has to be a major concern given that his wins have come on a quicker surface.

Tissue Price – 25/1

11 – Woodcraft – Another unexposed 3yo in the field and one with a powerful owner and from a yard that is simply in flying form at present. Finished last of 5 at Pontefract earlier in the year over 10 furlongs and showed little better last time when contesting a decent handicap at Newbury in which the first three home have all franked the form (king Charles impressive at ascot). The 4th home in that race ran well in a race that didn’t suit at Sandown (Simba Sun behind), so the form stacks up well. Starting to look exposed having failed to win in five attempts over this trip and the give in the ground hasn’t suited in the past. Dropped in class he needs to find improvement despite the low weight but with stable in flying form wouldn’t put it past him doing so.

Tissue Price – 13/2

12 – Calculating – No match for Rawdon latest in a class 5 handicap and has looked very limited in terms of ability so far. Formally with John Gosdon he was one of the rare few horses that trainer had struggled to get a win into and it’s to be seen if his current trainer can find the key to this horse. 2nd on good to soft ground over 10 furlongs at Brighton he is one that will no doubtly have conditions in favour, but he doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary and needs to show more before he can be fancied for a race such as this in my view.

Tissue Price – 20/1

Tissue – Simba Sun, Bedizen, I Have Dreamed 5/1, Inchloch 6/1, Woodcraft 13/2, Shela House, the Snatcher 7/1, Nightspot 12/1, Ev Soneva Fast 14/1, Ryan’s Future 16/1, Calculating 20/1, Pagan Crest 25/1.

Verdict – A poor days racing and this is the best race of what is a bad bunch of races. Simba Sun can have the last run at Sandown overlooked on his first start over 10 furlongs as the race was very muddling and wasn’t ran to suit. His previous course form stacks up solid enough and he should run a much better race. The ex Sir Michael Stoute inmate is interesting on first start for Pam Sly with the likelyhood of hurdles being his future. Inchloch may well go close with much in favour, on his return to the track and he is well overpriced at 20-1. I Have Dreamed is a solid enough horse and but may stay on, while Woodcraft comes from a yard in flying form.

SelectionSimba Sun 1 pt @ 14-1 (BF 17.0), Bedizen 1 pt @ 16-1(BF 25.0) & Inchloch 1 pt @ 20-1(BF 27

Well Chief