SMASH IT ON Well Chief's Horse race Preview

1 – St Andrews – Course and distance winner and looking to follow up a narrow win over heroes at Windsor last time on quick racing ground. The conditions of the track today are different from that day but if anything should benefit this horse who has won in extreme conditions in the past carrying 9stone 5lbs. The class 4 handicap he won last time under top weight has started to look a good piece of form with Heroes running well at the western meeting (beaten by course specialist) and Tender the Great, Wigwam Willie and Gyroscope all winning since. Only raised 3lbs in the weights the 7yo is still 6lbs below his highest achieved mark recorded in a class 2 handicap and if he retains that sort of ability he could well win again at this track that suits. Best form comes in the autumn.

Tissue Price – 4/1

2 – Nevada Desert – Most probably the most exposed horse in today’s line up, Nevada Desert is another course and distance winner having won here in testing conditions 12 months ago. Won back-to-back races in July. Best around the low 80’s in the handicap and late 70’s as all his wins in the last 2yrs have been around this mark, this exposed son of Desert King is often best caught in the 2nd part of the year. Not the most consistent of customers his win at this track was off a much lower mark then today and has often failed to give his true running around this course. As good as ever this season he isn’t far off winning again even though his run behind Fremen at the weekend would suggest that he is and even though off the same mark this race is a shade easier then that race. Needs to drop a few more pounds in the handicap and one to keep a note off for the coming 3 months.

Tissue Price – 16/1

3 – Granston – Another exposed handicapper in a field with a good mix and this grey has yet to score this year, which usually unheard off as he gets one win under his belt each season. Suited to a stiff track such as Leicester and Ascot he has dropped below his class 3 victory over Wahoo Sam last August by 2lbs and a sequence off decent 3rds in class 2 and 3 handicaps in the earlier stages of the season has meant the handicapper has taken very little chances with this exposed grey gelding. Had a sole run at this track back in his early days over six furlongs he should give a much better account of himself here today. Jamie Spencer is booked for the ride today and has a good record when paired with James Bethell runners. However its not a track the yard are to keen on and the run at Kempton last time suggested that the grey is past his best for now and needs to drop in the handicapper further to be winning again. Consistent enough he handles soft ground but all winning has been done on a sounder surface.

Tissue Price – 9/1

4 – Paceman – The first of a few runners in this race that could potentially be ahead of the handicapper in terms of improvement and Richard Hannon son of Diesis has already clocked up a win on soft ground when winning in good fashion at Windsor over a mile. Handles a left-handed track having won at Yarmouth over a mile when breaking his maiden tag at the third time of asking. First attempt at taking on older handicappers he is opened to more improvement on this ground but his soft ground win was in a pretty average 3yo handicap given the performances of the others since and even though dropping back down a couple of pounds he has got to defy a 4lbs higher mark taking on older more battle hardened handicappers carrying 9 stone plus on soft ground on his first attempt at a new track.

Tissue price – 8/1

5 – Kamanda Laugh – Once a top handicapper with Barry Hills he done most of his progression between the age of 3 and 4 while with that stable and is to sparkle in the same way for current trainer Kevin Ryan. Tried over hurdles twice to little success and should give that code another crack in the coming month for a trainer who is accustomed to running his more disappointing geldings over obstacles. Currently 15 runs since last tasting success he comes into this handicap of a mark of 81 his lowest since starting out in handicaps. Dropped 4lbs last time out he is 11lbs lower then when winning back in September 2005 for Barry Hills. Course debut he should be at home on this track having run well on a bend in the past, but it may be wise to wait until next time to back him where he could end up a well handicapped horse for the two big upcoming meetings on the Rowley Mile and a handicap he won as a 3yo off a mark of 83. A handle soft ground and goes well this time of the year.

Tissue Price – 14/1

6 – Zaahid – Has ran as many times as Kamanda Laugh has won and that just shows the difference in a upcoming horse compared to one on the downgrade. Twice a winner for Barry Hills at the start of the season this son of Sakhee has lost its way since being hit with a 11lbs penalty for the handicap debut win. Now 13lbs higher then last win for a well-beaten 2nd over 7F at Newmarket he has had a light campaign this season and comes here fresh to do himself justice taking on older handicappers for the 2nd time. Finished behind Webbow on his only start against older more experienced handicappers he should benefit a lot for that experience and could well be up to reversing the form with Granston who was carrying 6lbs more 2L in front of him. Progression is likely to close that gap more then the revised weight for age allowance, but there may be a concern on the ground as many Sakhee’s Offspring’s fail to give their true running on ground as deep as this.

Tissue Price – 12/1

7 – Full Victory – A good run behind Fremen at Goodwood was the last time we saw this gelding and that the winner has franked form well at Ayr last week. The overall form of the class 3 handicap has worked out well and Full Victory who stayed on at the one pace could well benefit for some cut in the ground having looked so impressive at Sandown back in May. Good solid efforts on more testing ground behind Vicious Warrior at York and Fortunate Isle at Ripon gives him claims after the weight rise of 10lbs in total for that impressive win at Sandown and even though he has picked up another 1lb rise for the 2nd to fortunate Isle he has improved and could well go close again in this handicap but may need a slight easing in the weights to win again but isn’t far off doing so. Finds himself 13lbs better terms with Nevada Desert this time around.

Tissue Price – 8/1

8 – Fan Club – Sole run so far in this country came at Doncaster last time out behind Danehillsundance in a decent looking handicap for 3yo. Dropped in class today but given a task against older handicappers its hard to know what to expect now that he is given his favoured mile and a surface that he was often tried on when with David Smaga in france. Dropped 5lbs from UK debut we should know much more after today, but caution is noted with David Chapman having enjoyed success at this track in the past and market should give us some clues. On debut run for yard he needs massive improvement to win this.

Tissue Price – 66/1

9 – Osteopathic Remedy – No disgrace in finishing 3rd to Wigwam Willie at Ayr in the class 4 handicap this gelding contested seven days ago and even though he finished tired he has a consistent profile on soft ground. Hasn’t done himself any favours with some solid place form to his name and the handicapper has taken very little chances with this 3yo who is one of the more exposed handicappers of that age group to be contesting this handicap today. Mile clearly suits despite the concerns over his stamina and should run his usual consistent race over this trip again today. Made the frame on all 3 starts he is rather one paced and with limited class in comparison to a few others he may do well to find the frame again in this tougher test. No chance last time here on quick ground against the talented lovelace over seven.

Tissue Price – 16/1

10 – Blue Monkey – Beaten 1/2L by Gongidas at Nottingham back in July and has shown a liking for ground with give in it. Kept to soft surface he was very disappointing under a penalty last time at Salisbury where the ground may have been a little livelier then first thought and 10L defeat in an ok handicap was not his running. Back paired with Liam Morris who has close on him twice before, he takes off 5lbs to have him very closely matched with Osteopathic Remedy on the form line through the Godolphin horse already mentioned. Given the fact that the rival suggested for the form line never wins by much makes it potentially a difficult assessment to make. Ground will be ideal today but 12lbs looks a hard handicap swing to sway with Clearly in Motion today if both give there running.

Tissue Price – 16/1

11 – Observatory Star – 1lb out of the handicap being a 4yo at the foot of the weights and that shouldn’t really make to much difference to his chance as the ground usually levels the playing field out. A winner last time out over a mile when beating a typical field of exposed handicappers in a Straight mile Qualifying race. Thought to naturally progress for the step up to a mile as a 4yo after finding it to far as a 3yo he could well find more improvement for the trip having turned in a much-improved performance to land that race. Cheek pieces may have helped to. The 6lbs extra for that win is meet with a tougher race in terms of quality and in what looks his toughest race since his earlier days. Place claims look likely to be the best on offer with potentially more improvement to come from the 3yo in this race.

Tissue Price – 7/1

12 – Medici Pearl – Last seen in August when well beaten 7th of 8 at Pontefract in which she was never travelling and looks the second string here for Tim Easterby with David Allan opting for the last time out winner Observatory Star. Beaten 3.25L earlier on in the season to Blue Monkey over course and distance and does find herself kindly weighted with that rival on 7lbs better terms and if horses were robots then she would finish in front of that rival. Soft ground is a bonus for her having performed at her best with cut in the ground and she may have more improvement to come for this mile trip having only been limited to 2 attempts over this trip so far. The break may have freshened her up having been kept on the sidelines during a dry period and she should give a much better performance then she did last time, even though that race contained some decent types.

Tissue Price – 16/1

13 – Wheels in Motion – Beaten in comfortable fashion by Champfleurie at Newcastle but made good late headway to finish 2nd in a race not ran to suit and could be considered better then the 4L deficit he entailed this day. Beaten by the Blue Monkey at Nottingham next time he finds himself in receipt of a massive 12lbs weight swing in his favour. Clearly suited to ease in the ground he was given a sharp test over six furlongs next time which didn’t suit and then when stepped back up to a mile found the ground far to lively for himself, the form of the race isn’t anything special and Wheels in Motion if given the correct conditions would most probably have came out on top and with another drop of 2lbs he could turn out to be a very well handicapped horse at the foot of the weights. Should show much more form then when contesting an early season handicap against older rivals that would similar to today’s opponents.

Tissue Price – 6/1

Tissue – St Andrews 4/1, Wheels in Motion 6/1, Observatory Star 7/1, Full Victory, Paceman 8/1, Granston 9/1, Zaahid 12/1, Kamanda Laugh 12/1, Medici Pearl, Blue Monkey, Osteopathic Remedy, Nevada Desert 16/1, Fan Club 66/1.

Verdict – Not a bad quality class 3 handicap in which there is a nice mix of handicappers in to make this a good race to follow in my view. The exposed brigade are led by St Andrews who should go close despite the weight he has to carry today and is a deserved favourite for this handicap. However there are a few nice weighted 3yo and one nearing the top of the handicap that could easily make into a nice 4yo in time over 8-10F. At the foot of the weights the 3yo are quite well linked together by form and they could be argued that they closely matched. Wheels in Motion has yet to fully fulfil his potential he shaped with as a 2yo, but has given some encouraging signs this season on soft ground. Run in some small fields this term he should benefit for the bigger field at the foot of the weights with conditions to suit and looks a horse that has scope for improvement once given the right field and conditions. Haydock should be his ideal track and he has improved on his first run at this track and I expect to see a bold show today in this handicap, if he doesn’t stick him in your notebooks as a future winner over further as he has been too keen before and still stayed on well for a owner that looks for staying types. Full Victory and St Andrews are the dangers.

Selection – Wheels in Motion 3pts win @ 10-1 (13.0 BF)

Well Chief