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Preview -
16 July 2007
4.00 Ayr Heritage Handicap
class 2 (3yo+) 5F good to soft
1 Celtic Mill Looks to be
back to his best this season based on the recent efforts behind Tax
Free and more recently with a good 2nd at Musselbrugh. With rain due
to hit the course in the morning the ground may just blunt his
natural speed in this race and in the past has under performed when
soft has been in the going description.
Tissue price 14/1
2 Tabaret Has ground to
make up with Curtail on listed class form here from 2 seasons ago.
Given a tough task last time in a group race over 6F in which he ran
to about the level he expected. Trainer is in form at present after
a poor few months, but doesnt run up to many winners in handicaps
here. Better over the minimum trip so a bonus being dropped back to
this trip but the main concern is how soft the ground will become
with the rain due as his best form is on top of the ground.
Tissue price 25/1
3 Buachail Dona Given the
ideal conditions for the first time since a impressive win at York
in a 3yo handicap and the flops may have come due to not having the
ideal conditions underfoot. Mainly kept to these types of races and
given a break since running a poor race in a small field race and
has not been pulled out on a few occasions when the conditions have
not been to suit. Leading contender.
Tissue price - 5/1
4 River Falcon Stayed on
at the one pace in the Gosforth Park sprints two weeks ago and
continues to frustrate his followers. Well beaten at Musselbrugh the
time before he seems to be very ground dependent and with the rain
coming he should go well again here today, but the overall likely
hood is that he will find one to good yet again. The track suits
despite the 0/8 record here for Jim Goldie who targets this race.
Tissue price 9/1
5 Fantasy Believer Top
sprinter in handicaps last season for John Quinn and seem to have
improved at a late stage in his career but is very much struggling
at the moment to win a handicap of the high 90s and top of the
ground is much more ideal then ground with cut in it. Goes well this
time of the year and trainer is always respected in these types of
races.
Tissue Price 16/1
6 Orientor Another to
have plugged on well in the Gosforth Park Sprint with out actually
ever looking like he would win under a 7lbs claimer. Booked with Seb
Sanders for this race and that change in jockey should help on a
horse that is hard to judge. Suited to the ground being on the soft
side of good from where he won group sprint races on stiffer tracks
then this. The flat gallop with this big field he may get caught out
by a turn of foot like he did at Newcastle last time.
Tissue price 10/1
7 Chookie Heiton Finished
last behind pivotal Princess at Beverley over 5F on return to the
track and has been given enough time in between his races so there
is no fear of him bouncing here today. Has won with cut in the
ground over a stiff 5F but his best efforts does consist over a
furlong further and the form of his last run when well beaten at a
track he likes gives him a lot to prove today over this quicker 5F.
Tissue price 18/1
8 Fullandby Very rarely
runs a bad race and handles ground with give in the ground to good
effect. This 5F may well be on the sharp side for him, but he did
run a very good race when beaten behind Celtic Mill and Aegean
Dancer in which he was well rousted to have finished as close as he
did as the pace told early. Likely to be doing his best work late on
in this race he will be much more suited when given the likes of the
Stewards cup as one of his targets. Goes well for today jock who
returns for the first time since the decent effort in the Victoria
Cup.
Tissue Price 20/1
9 Caribbean Corral
another that is a true testament to the training skills of John
Quinn who has got this horse back to his best and has to be one of
the leading fancies for this race today after two rattling finishes
at Epsom and when more recently catching the eye with a good finish
at Newcastle. The better ground then that day will suit him well and
the trainer has got him ticking over well like he did with Fantasy
Believer last season and the minimum trip is ideal with little
concern under the conditions today.
Tissue price - 6/1
10 Turn On The Style Well
beaten in the Gosforth Park where he was quite fancied to go well
and will be hoping that the rain doesnt hit the track to badly as
to his chances today. Close 2nd at the July meeting behind Moorhouse
Lad gives him outstanding claims in the ground stays dry and proved
with that run that he has got the ability to land races in and
around this class on turf having previously proved that the All
weather is ideal.
Tissue price 20/1
11 Desert Commander Seems
to come alive when placed to good effect over 6F at Ripon having
recorded back to back victories in the same race for the last two
season. Jamie Spencer is a eye catching booking for this horse and
he is still handicapped to go well in this company, however he has
been found out once to often on flat galloping tracks over on both
quick and soft ground and may find a few of these too sharp for him.
Tissue Price 16/1
12 Harry Up Bold front
runner who shows plenty of pace before getting caught late on and is
in need of a ease in the weights to be at his best and to get his
head back in front. Likely to set the fractions for his stable mate
here today his role up front could see him get placed today if the
ground doesnt become to testing underfoot as minimum ease in the
ground is at worse he wants it.
Tissue Price 16/1
13 Cashel Mead Needs the
ground soft and any rain hitting the course will only help her
chances as it did at Sandown last time when narrowly beating Golden
Dixie. Back above her highest winning mark she is still fairly well
weighted to go well today and her chances will increase for the more
rain that falls. This result as a tougher asks today but she usually
holds her form well once she has a confidence booster.
Tissue price 16/1
14 Stoneacre Lad Well
beaten last time on soft ground behind the inform mare in foal our
little secret who has followed up in a listed class event on
Saturday. Beaten by both Curtail and Cashel mead on this running, he
needs to prove that Rain soft ground does suit as he has been at his
best on the Polly track or when the ground is on the heavy side.
Needs to return to form on turf and until then is best watched.
Tissue Price 25/1
15 Distinctly Game
Disappointing last time when expected to show much more then he did
and looks the type who hasnt trained on for Kevin Ryan. Ground with
any cut in is a unknown for this horse, but horses sired by Mind
Games have gone well with cut in the past as well as on top of the
ground and with his speed gone now this slower surface may well help
him to return to form.
Tissue price 20/1
16 Hows She Cuttin Going
the right way and is now up to her best level of form having held on
gamely the last two times. Potentially she may start to struggle now
with the handicapper as she goes up yet another 6lbs and this is a
high class of race then she has been contesting. The trainer has
done very well with getting her so well handicapped and she is
clearly on the upgrade at present and could well go well with trip,
ground and course all well suited to her style of running.
Tissue price 12/1
17 Gallery Girl Always
looked a promising type from her early years behind the Sir Mark
Presscott runner Violette in same sex nurseries and returned to form
this season when dead heating over course and distance with Garstang
with curtail less then a 1/2L behind in 4th. Only raised 3lbs for
that bunch finish and may struggle to confirm form with Curtail on
lbs to lengths but given her profile she could well battle on to
confirm form as she is game if not the most talented sprinter
around. Wont want too much rain to get into the ground.
Tissue price 12/1
18 Curtail Ran well last
time behind Moorhouse Lad in which he did have to check up to get a
clear run and stayed on well, not the most straight forward but has
been knocking on the door of late and even though in a harder race
on paper he is handicapped still to go well. Some concerns over the
ground changing back to the slower side of good here, as his on top
of the ground form is much better then the soft side of things.
My Tissue price 16/1
Tissue Prices Buachaill Dona 5/1, Caribbean Coral 6/1,
River Falcon 9/1, Orientor 10/1, Gallery Girl, Hows she cutting
12/1, Celtic Mill 14/1, Cashel Mead, Harry Up, Desert Commander,
Fantasy Believer 16/1, Chookie Heiton 18/1, Distinctly Game, Turn on
the style, fullandby 20/1, Stoneacre Lad, Tarabat 25/1.
Verdict All 18
runners are still running and this could be quite an informative
race towards the 6F events in 6 weeks time. Celtic Mill heads the
weight and he, Hows She Cutting and Harry Up are likely to make
sure that the pace is a generous one for the conditions. Caribbean
Coral has been catching the eye of late and looks certain to go well
in this race for a trainer who is double handed and could yet
release the grip of Jim Goldie on this race.
Selection
Caribbean Coral 1pt @ 10-1 (BF
11s)
Well Chief
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