|
Preview -
10 July 2007
4.15 King Richard III Handicap
Class 3 (3yo+ 0-90) Good 6F
3 non-runners as the ground starts to turn for the better here
and with the weather forecast looking a little brighter we may be
able to get back to decent summer racing, rather then racing we have
had recently on tacky ground.
The pace of the race is likely to come from course specialist Mr
Wolf who makes a habit of bagging the rail here and making all the
running. Even though he has showed some form on ground with cut,
connections will be more confident of a turn to form here with the
conditions very much turning into his favour. The handicapper has
dropped him to a lower mark than when just holding on from the
finishing High Ridge here, 12 months ago. Yet to rediscover his form
of last season this time around, but you can never discount him
bouncing back to form here with the ground turning right for him,
but may find one or two too strong for him as he would need
reproduce the kind of efforts he put up last year when at his best.
Stonecrabstomorrow may hold the key to unlocking this race if
Richard Fahey has instructed his hockey to go from the front, which
is a possibility, as he likes to be quite close up to the speed.
However, its most likely that he will adopt a tracking role in which
he will follow Mr Wolf around the inside and try to get the gaps at
the right time to allow his extra stamina to come into play. A
winner over 6F, he does shape as though this drop back in trip from
the 7F last time at Chester will suit his style of racing. Brigadore
and Kings Gait are the other two course winners in the race, with
Brigadore a 6F winner, while Kings Gait was a winner over shorter
when winning here on heavy ground. A winner over 6F at Newmarket,
when most probably at his best, he is at the top of his game when
there is cut in the ground, so Kings Gait won’t be ideally suited if
the ground was to come up quick.
Brigadore is out of the handicap here and has taken a massive
step up in grade today, after racing in some average handicaps in
which he has carried big weights into places and remains a little
short at this level on figures. To have a strong say in this
handicap he would need to return to the form of around this time
last year, where a good place effort behind Adantino would have him
go close. But with limited excuses to be made for his poor form this
season, the bottom weight should be held on form today from out of
the handicap. Turnkey gets help from a claimer, but is another who
is yet to show his best on ground with no cut in.
The Snatcher is Richard Hannon's only runner at the track today
and his recent partnership with Ryan Moore is flying at present.
Ryan Moore has had limited chances on this horse to date, but its no
surprise to see some of his best performances have come when Ryan
Moore has been on top. Has a lot to prove at the moment, after a
couple of disappointing shows of late, when expected to show more at
Sandown recently. If he bounces back to form, then he has to go very
close to winning this today back over 6F, where he ran a fair race
at Newbury. If they go quick in front, he could be closing quickly
late on. Damika is likely to benefit for the return of a claimer,
after a good effort recently on heavy ground and if the horse hasn’t
got any side effects from that run, should show up well enough to
give a bold bid with quick conditions suiting just as well and seems
to be inform so has to have a chance here.
Angaric may want another furlong and looks held by Damika on
form, even though a stronger pace may help him to reverse the form,
with this race suiting his stamina more on a stiff track. He can't
be totally discounted in a wide open event. Coeur Couraguex I am
unsure where this handicap mark has been required from as he
continues to frustrate, Continent
a stable mate of CC has by far the best form for conditions today,
but it’s a challenge just to know if the 10yo is likely to put it
all in today. The form when sixth in a big race handicap at the
start of last season has him as the clear winner at the weights
today but that was last season and this season he has had rather in
and out form but has managed to win off a career low mark in which
he is just 2lbs higher then for this. 6F suit and long overdue
another attempt at this track, word of caution is that he is
vulnerable to anything progressive even though there isn’t much in
this field.
Campo Bureno has been running
well without actually threatening to win a handicap and has claims
providing the race falls right for him, as the return to 6F in which
he looked promising over last season should suit. Paris Bell is
another to have claims here today, as the wide draw isn’t a
disadvantage as he is dropped in but he may get a little outpaced on
ground that is often seen as too lively today.
Tissue – Mr Wolf 4/1, Continent, Campo Bureno 6/1, The Snatcher,
Damika, Angaric 8/1, Paris Bell, Stonecrabstomorrow 9/1, Kings Gait
10/1, Turnkey 14/1, Brigadore 20/1, Couer Couraguex 25/1.
Verdict – Open
handicap and would be no surprise to see Mr Wolf add to his
impressive course record with a all the success, however his
limitations have been exposed so far this season and there is a good
chance that the opponents will head him off in the final 50 yards
here. Of those Continent and Campo Bureno make the most appeal, as
they haven’t been running too far of their best form so far this
season.
Selection –
Continent 1pt @ 14-1 (BF15-1) &
Campo Bureno 1pt @ 12-1 (BF15-1)
Well Chief
|