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Preview
07 July 2007
2.35 Sandown Tote scoop 6 scoop
stakes Heritage Handicap (class 2 3yo) 12F gd-sft soft
1 - Rio Riva - Bolted up last
time at Newcastle on soft conditions, where he benefited from a
strong pace set by Zero Tolerance, who finished more or less walking
across the line. This was most probably as close he got to the form
he showed last season, when winning at Ripon. This was a improvement
on recent form. The race was ran to suit his style of running in a
small field. He may well struggle to follow up, now the handicapper
has increased his mark by 8lbs and he looks to have a hard task in
confirming the form with Moody Tunes, who meets him on 9lbs better
terms for that run. He laid up closer to the strong pace that day,
for the conditions. Also it has to be noted that trips down south
haven't often been a happy hunting ground for this horse.
My Tissue Price - 20/1
2 - Ordnance Row - Looks to
have put paid to his handicap chances, with an easy win latest at
Salisbury, where he tracked the pace on the bit and when push came
to shove on the leader, he was shaken up to score in good fashion.
Hammered 8lbs for that easy win and on Epsom form, he finds himself
worse of with his conqueror that day. Of the same mark at Salisbury,
as when running in that race at Epsom, which was a better race, as
clues to this race, despite the extra furlong this day. Both he and
Montpellier were unlucky in running that day, to be beaten by
Unshakable, as the winner had the run of the race. Also, with the
weights in favour of the 2nd out of that race, Ordnance Row may
struggle to reverse this form. Several others in this field were
involved in that race and were well beaten off. He is improving, and
the mile should suit him better, so has some claims in turning
around the form here.
My tissue price - 16/1
3 - Pride Of Nation - Won't
have any excuses in this race today, as the ground has come spot on
for him over a mile, and the run over 7F last time at the Royal
meeting, may have been a little sharp for him. He showed that
he still has the ability to win a handicap off his current mark,
with a creditable 6th in that race. With the step back up in trip,
and the soft conditions under foot being a bonus, he was entitled to
go well in that race at Ascot. If you consider his run in the
Goddard Stakes, where he had some decent handicappers / Listed class
runners in behind, then he must go close in this race today, if
reproducing that kind of form off this 3lbs higher mark. He should
once again track the pace, which should be strong to have a chance
to strike off, but wont want to exert too much energy in trying to
keep close tabs on the likely trail blazers.
My tissue price - 7/1
4 - Plum Pudding - Enjoys
ground with minimal give under foot and has turned into a course
specialist at head quarters, where all 3 of his wins have come,
including when clocking a good time over the mile this season. This
suggests that he has improved again on last seasons form over the
winter. Finished last at Epsom, when seemingly not handling
the turns and faired only a little better in the Royal hunt cup at
Ascot's Royal meeting. Potentially needs some help from the
handicapper at this moment in time, as well as improved conditions
underfoot, and a straight mile to be at his best. He is overlooked
in this handicap today, with the handicapper yet to take a chance
after the last rise in the weights.
My tissue price - 66/1
5 - Lundy's Lane - Another to
not really show too much at Ascot last time, where they were all
well beaten by the impressive winner. May have found that race a
touch too quick, as he had no response when the pace went up a
notch, after a solid first half of the race. Looking at the 10F run
in Dubai, an extra 2 furlongs looks the best chance for him to
revert to winning ways.
My tissue Price - 50/1
6 - Yeaman's Hall - Looks to
have a tough ask on his handicap debut, taking on older horses,
after weakening behind the disappointing Big Robert at the Curragh
last time, in a grade 3 race. They must feel he has a bit of class
about him, to send him over to Ireland at such an early stage in his
career, to be given a tough task such as that. In this drop into
handicap Company, he may go well with Frankie Dettori up for Andrew
Balding. Unknown on the ground, as one effort in a maiden, where he
had the run of the race and couldn't muster enough speed to pull
away, before being claimed by the winner in the final furlong. Tough
ask today but Jockey booking suggest they aren't here just on a
fact-finding mission. Has course form, which is a bonus.
My Tissue Price - 20/1
7 - Kilena Boy - Ridden to
sleep by Pintle here last time, which was his first defeat at the
track, having previously won his last two starts. This is a tough
ask here today, off this mark that is another 1lb higher then last
time. In the last run, he was potentially lucky to finish
placed, as those held up well in the rear didn't get the run of the
race. Considering that, he is potentially in the grasp of the
handicapper now. The slow conditions shouldn't be a problem and he
is likely to give his running once again, on a course that suits
with Paul Doe up top again.
My Tissue Price - 12/1
8 - Unshakable - Had a
running dual with Montpellier and maybe could be regarded as
slightly fortunate to win at Epsom with both the 2nd and 3rd meeting
trouble in running, and him very much getting the run of the race.
He tracked the pace, to come through to lead and stayed on well, as
he often does over 9F. Unlikely to get the same run of the race for
a second time, with the 2nd appearing to be better weighted in this
race. He is likely to just find this beyond him, with the age stat
against him also in recent years in this race. Suited to this track
and has claims if anything fails to come from of the pace to land
this. Ground should suit.
My tissue price - 9/1
9 - Montpellier - May have
found conditions against him last time at Ascot where he was gambled
into favouritism for the Royal hunt cup and Kerrin Mcevoy is once
again up top, even though Jimmy Fortune may have been called upon to
reunite the winning partnership. Owned by Sheikh Mohammed, it is no
surprise to see one of his jockeys up top. Based on the Epsom form,
where he found trouble, he is well weighted to go well in one of
these handicaps, and is a live threat with the conditions under foot
very much likely to suit this horse. The extra 2lbs isn't a problem
in the handicap, as he looks to progress further up the ladder. This
track should suit as he handles a bend well and with a strong pace
likely should get the splits to come home with a sweeping run,
tactics suited to this track.
My tissue price - 7/1
10 - Prince Of Thebes - Was
not suited to the forceful tactics last time at Salisbury, where he
faded tamely, once headed by Ordnance Row. The Epsom form is most
probably a better indication of what ability this horse retains.
Didn't get home over the 9F that day and no hard luck story in
behind as well and was plainly not good enough over this extended
mile trip. Richard Kingscote is booked for the ride to help out with
the weights. He is good value for his claim. The horse needs to find
his best form, as he looks potentially below his best so far this
season. The ground isn't certain to ideally help him and his claims
look minimal until showing more.
My tissue price - 20/1
11 - Moody Tunes - Ran a
cracker at Newcastle, even though well beaten in the end, but he did
lie up close to the pace and stuck on well to suggest he is very
much in form and loves testing conditions. Those conditions were
extreme and it isn't likely to be as testing as that day. The form
of that Newcastle race could be below what is needed here, with Zero
Tolerance setting a really searching stamina test. Worse off at the
weights with Bold Marc on the running in a muddling affair at
Haydock, on ground that may have been too quick. He also has form to
confirm with Vacation here, based on Yarmouth running, where he had
the run of the race against that rival. That form has been well
franked, with some fine place efforts so far. Should give another
good account today, but may just find the handicapper has taken his
measure, in a hot looking handicap. Trainer Karl Burke's record in
these races isn't too hot either.
My Tissue Price - 16/1
12 - Laa Rayb - Don't fully
buy into the pedigree suggestion that Storm Cat offspring's don't
handle ground as soft as this and should have no excuses on that
count today, were he to flop in this company. Course and distance
winner when landing a 3yo handicap and looks one to have a bright
future as his trainer tries two of his 3yo's into all age handicaps
here today. Progressing the right way, the low weight should help
him to give a bold showing today, even though this could potentially
be a tough ask for one so inexperienced and 3yo's in general not
doing well in this handicap. 13lbs means he has to give this a shot,
but would be more prepared to have him against his own age group,
even though Mark Johnston runners are tough as old boots.
My Tissue Price - 10/1
13 - Mutanaseb - Could start
a gamble up here, if progressing to land this handicap. The horse he
beat last time runs later on the card and that could be very
informative. Clearly going the right way and on his hatrick bid,
this 3yo has shown a good willingness to battle on. He was delivered
to perfection last time over 7F and he should get the extra trip
well enough on breeding. Looks the best of the quartet of 3yo's to
take their chances in this race. On the run over 7F here, the first
two both look good prospects and the cheeky fashion of the victory
has me believing he could be a few pounds in front of the
handicapper here, as he bids to get one over his elders.
My Tissue price - 5/1
14 - Vacation - William Buick
is usually used by Andrew Balding and returns to partner Vacation,
who stays well and comes home well from off the pace. Only having to
carry 8 stone today is a big bonus and the stronger pace is very
much likely to suit in his bid to reverse the form with Moody Tunes
here. Soft conditions are likely to help his stamina here, based on
the York run over 10F. Small set up that does well with this horse,
he may be able to progress more, now he has the conditions to suit.
In a race likely to suit his come from behind style, he has a chance
if negotiating a safe passage through this field.
My Tissue price - 10/1
15 - Blue Trojan - makes
seasonal reappearance as Sly Kirk starts to get his string into
shape, for his usual attack on the last few months of the season.
Has shown up well on seasonal reappearance in the past, he is much
the best on top of the ground and the soft conditions hold very
little chance for him today. Best watched for future handicaps as
this looks a tough ask.
My Tissue price - 33/1
16 - Bold Marc - Looks to be
well to the front, as he bids to follow up his Carlisle Bell win
from last week, where he took it up at the business end to battle on
strongly to land the spoils. He is the 2nd runner in this field for
Karl Burke, who isn't known for his Sandown handicap winners. Bold
Marc beat his stable mate in a small field at Haydock on quick
ground and finds himself on better terms. He likes to get his toe in
and in very good form, he is entitled to go well in this better
class of race, as he progresses the right way.
My Tissue price 12-1
17 - Colorado Rapid - Was
bitterly disappointing at Ascot, when bumped about and never really
going like a horse that was going to land a big 3yo handicap, for a
trainer who didn't have a great Royal Meeting, by his high
standards. Gets weight from all here, and is more experienced then
his stable mate. Being by Barathea, should handle ground with some
cut in, but not entirely sure how much cut he would benefit from.
Tough ask for a 3yo in this race, and will learn a lot from it.
Looks very closely matched with stable mate on figures.
My tissue Price - 10/1
Tissue Prices - Mutanseb 5/1, Montpellier, Pride of Nation
7/1, Unshakable 9/1, Laa Rayb, Colorado Rapid, Vacation 10/1,
Killnea Boy, Bold Mac 12/1, Ordnance Row, Moody Tunes 16/1, Rio
Riva, Prince Of Thebes, Yeamans Hall 20/1, Blue Trojan 33/1, Lundy's
Lane 50/1, Plum Pudding 66/1.
Selection –
Montpellier 1pt win @ 12-1(BF15-1), Pride of Nation
1pt @13-2 (BF 7-1), Vacation 1pt @ 25-1 (BF 43-1)
Well Chief
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