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Preview -
05 July 2007
7.55 Ridgeway Volkswagen
Handicap class 4 (3yo 0-85) 1M Soft
This is the first 3yo race I will have played in this season.
It’s is sure to be informative till the end of season. Heritage
handicaps for this age group, given the conditions of the race,
should be looked back on, particularly for those finishing well in
amongst 3rd and 4th. The winer is likely to be contesting listed
class races, if carrying a high weight to victory in this. The
conditions underfoot are likely it to be a tough ask for these 3yo
and any horse with suspect stamina may suffer.
1 – Aegean Prince – Has some
solid piece of form behind the decent Desert Dew who has held his
own at the higher level and that run over 8F on good racing ground
at Sandown where he stayed on without ever likely to catch the
winner gives him claims with listed winner Zaham back in 3rd. The
strong pace in this race maybe flattered Aegean Prince in beating
Zahem who did well to finish so close after cutting most of the
strong pace out. Mr Aviator who finished further behind after never
picking up as well at Sandown turned the form around at Goodwood off
a slower pace in which Aegean Prince was hampered and lost all
chance when taking closer order of a lower pace and with plenty of
pace on today he should have a race run to suit here. By Dr Fong
these conditions today should suit and with previous galloping track
form he should give a bold bid today despite top weight.
My Tissue Price – 5/1
2 – Cape Hawk – Non Runner
3 – Curzon Prince – Totally
different race today compared to what he has recently been
contesting with the extra furlong and conditions on the soft side.
Was unlucky at Wolverhampton earlier in the season where short of
room before flashing home to finish a close up 4th. The quality of
that race wasn’t the best and it was felt the best horse from the
race finished 4th. A good 2nd at Leicester when back on turf in
which the winner had the run of the race and Curzon prince was one
of a few to make inroads of the pace. The run at Sandown was poor
but once again the pace was a false one with the winner made all and
then failed to follow up next time in the same way as Massai Moon
the time before and the stronger pace today should be more to his
liking. The trip and ground aren’t certain to improve him to win of
this mark even though the strong pace suits, as his stamina isn’t
certain.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
4 – Mystery Ocean – has a lot
to prove on 3yo form having started the season of well with a close
3rd in the Masaka Stakes at Kempton in March to then find Handicap
Company a little to much on the last two starts back on Turf, Half
Sister to Irish 1000 winner Penkenna Princess she should have done
better when tackling rain soft ground at Epsom last time and that
was a shade below what she achieved at York the time before on
better ground in which on breeding you would imagine the easier
surface would suit. The strong ran race to day isn’t likely to suit
her having been best over this trip and 7F where her stamina hasn’t
been stretched and a smaller field is likely to see her at her best.
My Tissue Price – 20/1
5 – Murrin – Got the perfect
run through last time to win in very good fashion on quick ground at
Goodwood last time where the leaders were well beaten after cutting
out the solid running here. The 8F today of a strong pace is very
much likely to suit as this gelding bid to win under a penalty today
in which he is partnered with a jockey in form Jimmy Fortune who
does well for Terry Mills. The quick ground looked ideal for him
last time and he has been kept away from any ground with soft in the
description so far in his career, so as far a knowing if he is
likely to be suited by it today has to be taken on trust. The
penalty is likely to make things harder for him today as the last
race was very much ran to suit and it with this potentially suiting
he may go close to following up the last win.
My Tissue Price – 8/1
6 – Rule of Life – Richard
Hughes rides for his boss here and does exceptionally well when
paired with Barry Hills (19% S/R) and this Colt by Dansil has to
prove that he is as suited to cut as he is on top of the turf and on
breeding I have to have my reservations. Encounter ground with cut
in it to good effect at Newmarket as a 2yo in which he plodded on at
the one pace but didn’t really quicken up on ground with minimal cut
in it that day. Well beaten at Leicester behind Masai Moon and
Aegean Prince he is considerably better then that run in which he
missed the kick and then was never a factor in a slowly ran race.
Showed more of his ability next time out when an shd 2nd to Altar
over course and distance in which he still showed signs of
unwillingness before flashing home that day. That race looked a very
average handicap in comparison to today’s race so he has to be
labelled a tad disappointing. A mile looks ideal on that showing, as
it wasn’t overly quick for the conditions and not much coming from
behind this day. Better quality against him today and conditions
potentially against him, he looks to have a bit to do.
My Tissue Price – 10/1
7 – Spume – Was beaten last
time by Blue Monkey at Haydock in testing conditions that could
mirror today’s race and that effort wasn’t a bad one considering the
11lbs he was conceding to that rival and finds himself slightly
better off at the weights today. The form of the race has been well
franked and Sir Michael Stoute has a very good record with his 3yo
handicappers here so must feel he has potential to turn around the
form today. Previously flopped at York when losing his place and
seems that the introduction of the tongue tie has helped to get him
over that problem as it was his second flop since returning as a
3yo. The mile trip is likely to see him at his best in these
conditions even though he is more bred for middle distances. The
strong pace may however set it up for something stronger in the
finish here.
My Tissue Price – 8/1
8 – Apache Dawn – 11L scorer
at Newcastle over 7F last time in which he never saw another horse
and is well up to repeating that feat here under today’s conditions.
What this gelding by Pursuit of Love actual beat is a little
uncertain as in the main it was a race consisting of maidens and
Maiden winners. This represents a much tougher ask of the horse
ability in all fairness but there is no reason why he shouldn’t have
a cracking chance given the winning and manner of the margin of
winning last time. Out under a penalty which is interesting given
that his manner of victory would have had the handicapper reacting
more stoutly too and he should be able to give another bold effort.
Likely to not be allowed to dictate the pace in this race, as he
seems to be at his most deadly when allowed sustaining a lead (never
looked comfortable when chased along in behind). The time of the
Newcastle which wasn’t too bad for the conditions and he should be
hard to beat if settling into a rhythm in front.
My Tissue Price – 2/1
9 – Blue Monkey – Made light
work of the conditions when travelling strongly just of the pace
before taking it up looking like he was going to career away with
the race just to not quicken as well as expected and needing to be
shaken up to put day light between him and the chasing pact. The
pace of the race wasn’t that strong to get overly carried away with
the form and the 2nd has franked the form well having maybe not been
entirely suited to the way the race was ran and made a fist of it.
Spume connections may fancy there chances of reversing the form
here, but even though slightly hampered Blue Monkey did seem to have
that rival covered and with the change of jockey not a negative lb
for lb, he should hold his form of this race quite well. The
stronger ran race isn’t certain to suit him as he does like to lay
up quite prominent to the pace but the conditions will suit with him
being slightly one paced.
My Tissue Price – 8/1
10 – Apollo Five – Has a bit
of improvement to find to be involved in this today after struggling
in both handicaps so far and even though he finds himself 5lbs
better weighted with Cruzon Prince on Sandown running last time.
Always struggling in a average pace race for the conditions and size
of field he never made it out of the rear and the 4L between them
will be hard to reverse as the conditions today and trip don’t look
to favour him anymore then his rival. Easier races lie just round
the corner.
My Tissue Price – 33/1
11 – Alferdien Park – Won on
racecourse debut on all weather when dropped in behind and being
delivered at the right time over 9F in what looks a very poor maiden
race. Struggled of a mark of 79 from winning that race and
potentially isn’t well handicapped here after finding life tough in
three straight handicaps. Hard to know what to make of his volume of
form, but with conditions this soft and having looked keen last time
out and breeding suggesting that ground this soft isn’t ideal he
looks best looked over with Stamina not likely to last out on this
going.
My Tissue Price – 25/1
12 – Nicada – Ran a
creditable race last time on Soft ground at Windsor in which they
didn’t go off to fast and the race resulted in a bit of a muddling
finish to it with Nicada working hard to finish 2nd final strides
and had no chance with the winner who enjoyed the conditions and
quickened clear to settle the race in matter of strides. Runs
similar races in which he sticks on at the one pace and the quicker
pace that is likely today should see him to a better level. Not the
classiest of horses in this field and still to show that the
conditions will suit (both wins on A/W) he is at least a battler and
with a low weight may well plod on once the others cry of under the
strong pace.
My Tissue Price – 14/1
13 – Awwal Mailkia – Clive
Britton does very well with his 3yo fillies and this horse by
Kingmambo has to be respected on her first try on ground this soft
(bred for soft) over a mile trip and there could be significant
improvement to come for this change from the all weather in which
she badly flopped with a sluggish pace maybe the biggest reason why.
She is bred to stay mile trips in which her stamina is tested under
foot and with a strong pace she should travel kindly into the race.
Not top class she was given a very tough task in the Rockfel stakes
last season at Headquarters and if she is to make her name it will
be more at this level. Interesting but maybe just needs to show a
little more.
My Tissue Price – 16/1
14 – Mark Of Love – Last seen
in a appetencies handicap in which he was slow away and then when
making his effort to close down the leaders edged left before
sticking on to finish 4th. The race wasn’t a good race and the
winner had quite an easy time on the front end. The runner up has
run well in a similar race with out landing it and this results as a
much tougher task today. Paired with a 7lbs claimer to help his
claims here (7.10) with a featherweight and maybe with the strong
pace in the race likely holding up to deliver his challenge again
maybe the way forward for this horse to progress, but needs to find
improvement to be winning this.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
Tissue Prices – Apache Dawn 2/1, Aegean Prince 5/1, Blue
Monkey, Murrin, Spume 8/1, Rule of Life 10/1, Cruzon Prince, Mark Of
Love 12/1, Nicada 14/1, Awwal Mailkia 16/1, Mystery Ocean 20/1,
Alferdien Park 25/1, Apollo Five 33/1.
Verdict – Apache
Dawn is taken to follow up here if the bookies are to be correct as
massive bets seem to be taken on this horse as he stands at 5/4 in
general with the bookmakers and may go odds on by the off time as he
has been well tipped up. Potentially ahead of the handicapper on
this type of ground which he did looks different gravy on last time,
but when you don’t know just how well the opponents are to do
afterwards and the run of the race for the winner you don’t want to
be taking 5/4 next time out on what potentially is a much better
class of race in which he may not have the run of the race over this
furlong further. In opposition I see Aegean Prince as a very big
price despite the weight in this handicap as that Sandown form where
they went hard in front does entitle him to respect in this handicap
and 20-1 is just to big with the winner and 3rd franking the form at
Royal Ascot. Potentially this race will be ran to suit and rates as
a better value to chance then both Spume and Blue Monkey.
Selection – Aegean
Prince 1pt @ 20-1 General (BF31-1)
Well Chief
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