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Preview -
04 July 2007
8.20 Digibet Sports Betting
Handicap Class 3 (4yo+,0-90) 2M Standard
1 – Simondiun – Unexposed 4yo
having his first attempt over a longer trip, as well as his first
start on Poly Track and has to lump top weight in this handicap,
following a very impressive Maiden Debut at Newbury over 10F, where
he bolted up. Started off in handicaps over 12F at Salisbury off a
mark of 92 and appears on his all weather debut, just 5lb lower on
Official Ratings. Gave the impression that further would suit, on
Nottingham running, in a small muddling affair that wouldn’t have
been run to suit. There has to be some concerns with his hanging
left on this right handed track, where there's a long sweeping bend
into the home straight. He was outpaced on good to firm ground at
Goodwood and Salisbury, over shorter and factors like the ground, as
well as the trip were possibly to blame. Jamie Spence is booked for
today’s ride, for a yard that is inform and he partners to good
effect. Hernando Colts do well on the all weather and this gelding
has claims if staying 2M. His pedigree suggests he will stay this
trip.
My tissue price – 10/1
2 – Salute – A course and
distance winner at a lower level and nearly followed that up here,
when just denied by the hard to win with Odiham, who just got up in
the dying strides to win. Hampered that day, he still had every
chance to land the prize in a small muddling affair, but was always
covered by Steve Drowne and Odiham, who for all his quirks is a
decent all-weather yardstick to have form with. Steve Drowne
partners the horse today on his return to this track, after finding
the small six-runner affair last time at Salisbury over 14F too hot
to handle, where he stayed on at the one pace in the final furlong.
Capable of better then that, as proving when a good winner at
Wolverhampton, over the same distance in a truly run race. Seems
best when given a gallop to aim off. The Kempton form is yet to be
franked, but Salute’s efforts on turf recently can be overlooked, as
good to firm ground looks to be un-favoured.
My Tissue price – 8/1
3 - Whispering Death – Will
be better suited to this track then Chester, where there was a true
end to end gallop, on a tight turning track. The short run in saw
him make headway far too late. The longer straight here, with a long
sweeping turn should help him to pick up off a decent gallop, which
looks likely, providing there isn’t any non runners for this race
today. In terms of the clock he has enjoyed two of his best efforts
on good to firm ground at Sharp tracks such as Warwick and Chester,
where he was very much running in snatches, to keep up with the
pace, before switching onto the bridle, looking like the winner
before emptying. That effort was under a big weight, making it a
good performance on very quick ground that day. Has had one try on
the all weather track, when well beaten over 7F as a youngster, and
can put that firmly behind him today, under Liam Jones, who is a
brilliant claimer to have on your side. Gelding by Pivotal in which
this great sire has had plenty of prodigies to handle this surface
and even though technically 14F has seen him well he should see this
16F out well and has to be very much in with a chance today.
My tissue price – 3/1
4 – Junior – Won well at
Newbury a race that is working out well and this half brother to
Humble Opinion (fair staying type) maybe had a little more in hand
then suggested, as he just kept pulling out more under Richard
Hughes, who clearly gets on well with this horse. On Wolverhampton
form, he can Idle in front and will be looking to dictate the gallop
from Salute today, to defy the rise in the weights, something he
failed to do at Ascot last time on soft ground. Back on the all
weather, where he beat an average field, which had two next time out
winners in, he finds himself 10lbs worse off at the weights with
Salute here. He needs to improve to confirm the form, which isn’t
out of the question, from a stable starting to find their feet
again.
My tissue price – 7/1
5 – Newnham – Not totally out
of this today, based on the two good recent efforts over 16F at this
track and seems very much to be improving with age, for a yard that
does well on the all weather, as their main source of income. Jack
Mitchell takes over and has a handy 7lbs off the back of this horse.
The Goodwood run can be overlooked, after he lost his action after
stumbling on a track that many become unbalanced on. The return to
this flat track should suit. The form of his runs here, are at a
lower level and he is quite exposed at 6yo. If there were to be a
good end to end gallop, then this horse would have a solid chance
with good speed figures at the track. The form of defeat by
Dhehdaah is working out well and he looks to have solid claims, if
still in the same form as early season.
My tissue price – 4/1
6 – Megaton – Has been doing
well over hurdles of late and returned to the flat to land a 14F
Nottingham handicap on the level. Beat Debord by 2L in a small
field, that was ran very much slower then the likely pace today.
Quickened away nicely and eased so suggestion is that there is more
to come. The form of that race was very average in terms of renowned
talent and this will be by far his tougher task on his all weather
debut. Sired by the classy Nashwan, who hasn’t had many winners on
the All weather and the major stat of 0-48 with his prodigies
doesn’t read too well even though this gelding has shown his stamina
over hurdles. Peter Bowen and Frankie Dettori team up here, which is
always something to note, and he could go well here for a trainer
who is highly respected during the summer months.
My tissue price – 7/1
7 – High Point – A lot rests
on the return to this track for a change in fortune, for this horse
having not really showed too much in recent races, to suggest he is
ready to strike, even though his best efforts have come at a track
such as Kempton. A winner over 2M, when beating Valance in a small
field, that was ran at a slow pace, where in he was well placed to
score, after quickening the best, in receipt of weight from his main
rival that day, as the 3yo struggled. Tried to follow up next time
under a penalty and found the pace much stronger that time and
couldn’t Newnham who he was conceding a massive 13lbs too. Better
weighted today with that rival in what looks likely to be a similar
type of race he has to find a return to form here today to reverse
that form on better terms and that isn’t totally likely.
My tissue price – 12/1
8 – Establishment – Another
like High Point, where will be hoping to return to form at this
track today, where he has gone well in the past, but his recent form
has been a little lack lustre, to say the least. It looks like time
maybe catching up with him, in what will be his 80th visit to the
race course. Best on a sharp turning track, such as this, he would
really need to bounce back to form to reverse the recent form lines
today. He failed to go close in strongly ran races, as well as small
muddling affairs (both at this track) and can’t be backed until
showing something worth noting.
My tissue Price – 33/1
9 – Jack Rolfe – Last seen
over hurdles for Gary Moore and this was of the back of a good run
behind Lady Songbird, who has gone on to run well in staying event’s
such as this. Winner at Dunstall Park back in March, which followed
on from a good effort behind Blue Hills over the same 14F trip. On a
form line with that horse, we have a good idea what to expect
between this horse and Megaton, who beat Blue Hills easily and worse
off at the weights. This handicap looks much tougher for the likes
of Jack Rolfe, but with the riders claim again, he has a nice low
weight to help to even it out, and is at least proven to handle a
decent end to end gallop.
My tissue price – 14/1
10 – Sendingpost – Won a very
average race here last time under a big weight and today finds
himself very much up against much tougher rivals, over a trip that
suits him well, based on the finishing run to get up that day. Jim
Crowley gave him a masterful ride, where as the young man on board
today is very much likely to struggle to repeat that feat in a
finish. The pace played into his hands, as he gets the trip well.
That was possibly his best career performance to date and could be
starting to go the right way.
My tissue price – 8/1
Tissue prices – Whispering Death 3/1, Newnham 4-1, Junior,
Megaton 7-1, Sendingpost, Salute 8-1, Simondiun 10/1, High Point
12-1, Jack Rolfe 14-1, Establishment 33-1.
Verdict – A tight
handicap and one that may solely rely on how well Whispering Death
takes to this surface over the longer distance. Currently around 5-1
with most bookmakers he is a shade bigger at 11-2 on the exchanges
and looks the value bet along with Newnham who has progressed nicely
at this track and cane be backed at 9-1 with most bookies and 10-1
on Betfair.
Selection –
Whispering Death 1pt @ 5-1 (11-2
BF) & Newnham 1pt @ 9-1 (10-1
BF).
Well Chief
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