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Preview -
03 July 2007
8.45 Ladies Evening Handicap
class 4 (3yo+ 0-85) 5F Gd – Soft / Soft
The Draw – Has favoured the low numbers marginally in recent
weeks, but not enough to totally discount those drawn high in this
race. There is a fine cut in the pace across the track with the low
numbers and the high numbers and it is interesting to see if they
all track to one side after the first few races on the card being a
pointer.
1 – Sunrise Safari –
Potentially the class horse in the race on form and has to saddle
top weight here under conditions that shouldn’t be too much of a
problem for him based on the recent run at Ayr and also the way he
had shaped on his race course debut finishing very strongly once the
penny had dropped on testing conditions. Ran a creditable race
latest at Hamilton (winner franked the form) over 6F which may have
been a trip to far there, as his form points strongly towards 5F
being ideal. The Ayr win proved he retains the ability as he was
hampered and still got up in the finish on rain Soft ground and
looks very much as if he was different class to those. More weight
today and potentially similar rivals to that race he has strong
claims in this race and should go close back over this easy 5F.
My Tissue Price – 3/1Fav
2 – Mimi Mouse – All his best
runs come at this track and last time repaid his followers with a
good win over this 5F on good to firm ground. Much the best overall
on good to firm ground he does have one piece of form on desperate
ground here that really sticks out and that was when victorious over
5F here on Heavy ground when giving 8lbs to Bond Boy (decent mud
lover) and finishing just 2.5L of the front in a decent handicap
here last season. His other soft ground form doesn’t come close to
that performance in which he has struggled to get home including
here and looks very much a horse that likes it rattling fast or very
desperate underfoot. The form of the win here last time has worked
out well and he is certain to go well once again, providing the
conditions aren’t too much to his disliking.
My Tissue Price – 20/1
3 – Deserted Dane – Looked
very promising last season when bolting up in a maiden at Beverley
over this trip and set a very good time that day suggesting that a
stiff track was very much to his suiting. Had dropped 10lbs in the
weights since returning from Dubai and was very disappointing when
failing to run up to form back at Beverley. Made good use of the
weights drop when running out a deceive winner at Carlisle last
time. Stiff tracks looks to help him over 5F and maybe this easier
test isn’t totally ideal. The forms of the last run yet to take
shape and he is turned out quickly to strike while the iron is hot
(never really troubled last time) and looks very much on the
upgrade.
My Tissue Price – 4/1
4 – Nigella – Non-Runner
5 – How’s She Cuttin –
Consistent type who hasn’t failed in her last 8 starts to finish in
the first 2. Progressed from a low mark of 49 and now races of a
mark 31lbs higher suggesting that life is about to get a lot tougher
for her now. At her best at Musselbrugh she has given good account
of herself at Ayr on soft ground and enjoys a flat galloping track
that is quite quick. Today’s track shouldn’t be a problem for her if
handling the undulations of the track and she can’t do a lot better
then her 2nd run here where she didn’t stay the 7f well enough. Much
a sprinter she handles soft ground well enough to have a chance and
based on the last run she has certainly progressed to much her best
where she most probably gave the best indication of her ability to
land that prize (hung again). Form working out well and she has to
be respected despite the rise in the weights.
My Tissue Price – 5/1
6 - Abwaab – No-runner
7 - Highland Warrior – Has
been caught out on a few occasions by poor starts but has a very
good turn of foot over these sprint distances, potentially best
treated when just a shade on the slow side of good over 5F, he
proved as good as ever when racing more prominent to pick up the
running a furlong out and staying on to win nicely at Ripon. Suited
to easy sprint tracks such as these and on that Ripon run handles
soft ground as well as ever before, he can be forgiven the run at
Newcastle last time over 6F at the track and conditions were most
probably to tough for him. Vulnerable to a more progressive rival he
comes here in form and that Ripon run is solid looking form.
My Tissue Price – 7/1
8 - Colours – Winner of a
ultra competitive 20 runner handicap over CD 3 runs back in which he
had the likes of course specialist Mini Mouse amongst a whole field
of half decent handicappers. 5lbs higher in the handicap now, but
still handily weighted with Mini Mouse on that running, The form has
taken some knocks as well as been franked (3 winners) he has let the
form down since in similar types of handicaps at tracks that should
have suited him and the ground conditions have to be a major concern
with some poor effort with give in the ground.
My Tissue Price - 25/1
9 - Valery Borzov – Started
of well when coming home well on soft ground at Catterick which in
general is quite a quick sprint track and that was a good debut
effort by this 3yo from top sprint trainer Dandy Nicholls. Given a
tough task against older sprinters having only had 3 previous runs.
The high draw wasn’t as much to blame for the lesser performance
last time at Ripon where the 2nd and 3rd were also widely drawn and
it may have been more down to the trip and better class of rival
then the previous run at Musselbrugh over 5F in which he quickened
to beat a poor bunch. The drop back in trip is likely to suit today
and that 3yo handicap last time may turnout to be a very good horse
and with a liking already for this ground better is expected of him
today.
My Tissue price – 10/1
10 - Bond Boy – Pass his best
days with Brian Smart and the new trainer who has taken on all the
owners horses it seem has to try and get them back to their best
now. Put up his best recent performance when tackling ground with
give in at Redcar behind Ice Planet under today’s claimer (form not
working out) and should be suited to today’s ground. Hasn’t put up a
performance close to his best since running well back to back races
on heavy ground last season and given how soft the ground could well
be tonight has his best chance at rediscovering his best form even
though as a 10yo he may just be pass his best (2lbs lower now then
last winning mark). Suited to track and trip and bold bid expected.
My Tissue Price – 11/1
11 – Matty Tun – Was a little
unlucky at Sandown a couple run back in a quite average handicap for
the track and was disappointing the time before that when well
beaten here behind Colorus. Best efforts may be somewhat in the past
but there is reason to believe he has a much better chance with that
rival today on slower ground as he has in the past proven to handle
this ground to quite a good level but really needs to find some form
at this level as the losing run continues. This easier course should
help him on this ground but you have to take him on trust these
day’s and this is looking a tougher race then he has been running in
and failing.
My Tissue Price – 33/1
12 – Sahara Silk – Returned
to form to land a quick ground sprint at Beverley Recently and the
form of that race hasn’t turned out to badly. Carries less weight
today with the tougher sprinters on offer for her to take on today
and not entirely certain to reproduce her best on ground as soft as
this as she struggled over 6F at Leicester last time as she could
never muster enough speed to get on terms with the leaders and then
lost her placing when weakening. The drop in trip and easier track
should suit but she has a lot to prove having been kept away from
ground as soft as this in the past.
My Tissue Price – 16/1
13 – Strensall – Barely gets
home over 5F at this level and finished best of the rest in a very
poor Catterick sprint (winner clear cut) on good to firm ground.
Never at his best when stamina comes into play as proving when
failing to get home at Chester over 5F on soft ground a couple years
back and despite the light weight and a return to the course where
he has some winning form he has a lot still to prove and is very
exposed.
My tissue Price – 20/1
Tissue Prices – Sunrise Safari 3/1Fav, Desert Dane 4/1,
How’s She Cuttin 5/1, Highland Warrior 7/1, Valerie Borzov 10/1,
Bond Boy 11/1, Sahara Silk, Mini Mouse 16/1, Strensall 20/1, Colorus
25/1, Matty Tun 33/1.
Verdict – How’s
She Cuttin can be laid in my view at around 5/2 or 11/4 with most,
as I feel there is plenty to take her on with today. The value may
lie with Sunrise Safari at best priced 6/1 to defy top weight in
this field as he looks likely to progress further over 5F then
current mark. Desert Dane has more on plate this time, but you can’t
help and be taken by his recent form. He is about priced right
for his chance today. Highland Warrior looks a shade too big at 14-1
as does Bond Boy at the same price.
Selection –
Highland Warrior 2pts win @ 14-1
(BF 20-1) & Bond Boy 0.5pt @
14-1 (BF 17-1)
Well Chief
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