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Preview
30 June 2007
3.20 Northumberland Plate
(Heritage Handicap) Class 2 (3yo+) 2M Heavy
The testing ground today will make it a stern test of stamina and
a horse that is freshly prepared for this slog that has been
campaigned for this race that enjoys getting his toe in the ground
is likely to be very hard to beat today. The draw over this distance
despite the stats I would imagine doesn't have too much to do with
the outcome and the best horse on the day will come out on top. Here
are the races that will hold the key to the outcome of this race I
feel.
Chester Cup
The winner of this handicap appears in this race under a penalty
of 6lbs for winning this handicap in which the strong pace laid
right into his hands as his stays very well and the form of the race
has worked out with Som Tala and Enjoy the Moment both going well at
the royal meeting last week so the extra 6lbs if they go fast enough
shouldn't be a problem after carrying 9 stone + to victory here. A
few reposes him from this race in the shape of serial plodder Odiham
(8lbs) & Dr Sharp (10lbs) who both have claims at turning around
the form at the weights.
This staying race the ground was on the quick side and the
stiffer test of stamina is likely to give both Odiham and Dr Sharp a
good chance with the latter maybe finding the galloping track more
to his liking and has a low weight. Greenwhich Meantime has gone
well at this track in the past and will be likely to be staying on
at the end to good effect and having been a class 2 winner may just
come out on top against these again but all 3 are likely to be
closely matched.
Music stakes @ Epsom
Nosferatu made a last impression in this middle distance handicap
and seems to be on a roll at the moment in which he is bidding for a
four timer and is very much on the upgrade for Amanda Perrert but
this should be much harder race today. Comes here fresh having been
given enough time in between his racing. 4lbs higher then when
winning this race he needs to improve, as the opponents are much
tougher then this day and with this being a stern test of stamina
there are points to make that he may be outstayed on breeding as
middle distances would be likely to see him progress further. Tilt
comes up against the Perrert runner again today having been well
beaten and with the course being more to his liking it's a lot of
ground to make up but better is expected with the conditions very
much likely to suit as well as the lighter weight and with Le
Estrella very much needing better ground, Tilt looks the best of the
pair to reverse the form even though the handicapper seems to have
his measure at this moment in time and needs to also find
improvement.
John Willies Stakes @ Haydock
Small fields are never the best pointers to big field in my view
and this handicap could have the form turned on its head today as
the first and second reposes as well as Winged D'Argent who well
beaten this day and seems to be struggling to return to form since
leaving Mark Johnston yard. Winged D'Argent is much better off at
the weights today but was well beaten when headed and River Alhaarth
could be the one to rival Colloquial today even though the form
hasn't stood up well. The winner got the first run and with 3lbs the
difference in the weight from this day River Alhaarth who travels
kindly in a big field has claims to reverse the form with the
conditions likely to suit and the trip being more of a test.
Betdirect.com Stakes @ Newmarket
Over 1M 6F this big field race form has stood up well so far with
Juniper Girl & Finalmente running very good races at Royal Ascot
over further then 2M and maybe the shorter trip of 2M can see Sentry
Duty confirm the form over Juniper Girl despite the 9lbs difference
in weight here. Colloquial and River Alhaarth both came out of this
race to record a forecast at Haydock (above) so the form looks solid
towards this race. The deeper ground today will suit both Juniper
Girl and Sentry Duty while River Alhaarth in a big field proved the
point that he is in fact better suited to today's race then
Colloquial. Sentry Duty obviously has a tough ask under this kind of
weight but is likely to be a stout stayer and one that could turn
out to win some big prizes for Nicky Henderson over the winter and
Rive Alhaarth is likely to be the biggest threat to reversing this
form.
Aureole Stakes @ Newmarket
A lower grade of handicap to the other races picked out as a
guide but one that saw Dr Sharp return to form on sticky testing
ground at HQ in October over 2M and is a clear indication of that
horses stamina as he done it with over a stone more then he will be
carrying today and had Colloquial (big field hater) and Gee Dee Nen
well beaten in behind. The weights point to Dr Sharp reproducing
this form against these two rivals as the ground becomes testing and
with Gee Dee Nen not best with this amount of cut in the ground it
should be a simple case in this stamina zapping race that DR Sharp
does come out on top again.
Ascot Stakes
A rough race at Ascot last week and with a stiff test of stamina
here it will take a very strong horse to come out for this and win
it well. Juniper Girl, Mceldowney, Odiham and Leg Spinner all
reappear for this race so we have the 2nd, 4th and 5th reposing and
Mark Johnston looking for compensation with Mceldowery who was
bitterly disappointing in this race despite not being totally un
supported.
Leg Spinner made great late headway over this trip and isn't
certain to come out best over the shorter trip even though these
conditions are ideal compared to the quick ground and he may have
just been off his feet early so there is claims here. Juniper Girl
another who made very good late headway may also have found the
early pace not to her liking but just remembering the way she runs
she does look tailored made for solid staying trips over 2M and may
just lack the extra speed needed. Odiham kept on at the one pace and
give in the ground well suit while the low weight and the drop back
to 2M on this type of ground is a big positive for Mceldowery who on
form was closely matched with Som Tala and Juniper Girl in this race
who finished in a photo for 2nd so is much better then this defeat,
and could spring a surprise with much in favour including a low
weight which is a massive positive in this race.
Others - Al Ellie will be
well supported as a decent hurdler exposing a mark on the flat and
while Macorvile has his ground which is very much ideal but isn't
likely to get the race ran to suit while all Richard Fahey runners
have to respected but Halla San looks handicapped up to his best.
Tissue Prices - River Alhaarth, Sentry Duty 8/1,
Greenwhich meantime 9/1, Norsfertu, Mceldowery, Leg Spinner, Juniper
Girl, Al Ellie 10/1, Odiham, Tilt, Macrovile, DR Sharp 16/1, Halla
San 20/1, Monolith, Gee Dee Nen 33/1, Cape Secret, Mustajed,
Colloquial 40/1, La Estrella, Winged D'Argent 50/1
Verdict – A
good staying event that is never a good race to take a short price
in and there is plenty of value flying around in this handicap. Mark
Johnston is always respected up north in handicaps has a live
chance, after an average ascot campaign. His runner can bounce back
to form as the Ascot stakes seems to have many clues. The top weight
is likely to go well in this handicap while you can never discount
Greenwhich Meantime in these races. The low weighted Dr Sharp has to
have claims at the weights to make up the difference in class on
this ground.
Selection –
Mceldowery 1pt
@ 33-1 (50), Leg Spinner 1pt @
12-1 (BF 25) River Alhaarth 1pt
@ 10-1 (Bf 18.5)
Well Chief
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