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Preview -
29 June 2007
7.15 Northern Rock Gosforth
Park (Handicap) class 2 (3yo+ 0-105) soft 5F
1 – Celtic Mill – The form
book has plenty of pluses on this horse who has beaten 10 of the 16
opponents he faces today in previous races and comes here of the
back of a good run at Musselbrugh when 2nd to Aegean Dancer over 5F.
Likes to run well to the front of the pack and when on song can be
hard to peg back. Thought to be past his best in terms of winning
group races and at 9yo would be the oldest winner in some time to
win this race. Best on quick ground the conditions has to be off a
concern but the weight on the back isn’t as the last run proved he
is capable still of running well in a big race handicap under a
welter burden of weight. Cheek pieces potentially a thing of the
past.
My Tissue Price - NR
2 – Fonthill Road – a Hard
horse to keep sound having had well documented back problems but
underlined the trainers talents when landing the Ayr Gold cup in
good fashion before going well again on a straight galloping track
when beaten just 3L by Amadeus Wolf over 6F. Finished well behind
Celtic Mill latest but that is a sharp 5F and this stiffer 5F should
be more to his liking even though it is still likely to be on the
sharp side. Trainer does well here with his handicappers and is
double handed in the field, stable number 1 jockey has taken this
ride and potentially has chosen the wrong one as the soft going
isn’t likely to be ideal despite handling Autumn good to soft ground
to a very good level.
My Tissue Price - NR
3 – Bond City – Still to be
seen if new trainer can get anymore out of this horse as there isn’t
many who have the ability to improve sprinters from Brian Smart yard
and with him still 4lbs higher then when last winning he is given
another tough sprint handicap to overcome this mark. Set out to win
a big handicap this season he is 0-13 in 16+ runner handicaps but
does handle big fields but has one of those traits of finding one
more progressive then which he is. Doesn’t want it too soft as he
generally is a much better sprinter under better conditions even
though he does handle ground with some give in. Better weighted with
Caribbean Corral on Epsom Dash form and gave another bold account at
Musselbrugh under today’s claimer who is helping him at the weights.
Uncertain on the draw suiting him with more likely pace on the low
numbers he may have to make it himself.
My Tissue Price – 9/1
4 – Meccas Mate – Handicapped
to go well based on the narrow win over Bond City last year (even
though claimer tips it the other way) on good to soft ground at
Newmarket and no problems with getting her toe in. David Barker has
two runners in this field today (saddles top weight) and will be
hoping that the 55-day break will have done the trick with this
horse that finished tailed off over 6F at Newmarket on quick ground.
That performance was lame as the horse has previously shown to
liking the quicker ground and it wasn’t a case of the race coming
too soon after the Newbury run. Suited to today’s conditions she
needs to find her form to land this today and possibly better in
small fields. Comes to life this time of the year.
My Tissue price – 12/1
5 – River Falcon – Hard to
judge horse as his form is very in and out and based on the 2nd to
Sierra Vista in a small field (Bunchill Dona well beaten) he has to
have some sort of claims even though that race could be misleading
form. Needs to be produced at the right time it is a surprise to see
just how good his record is in small fields, with the impression
that a end to end gallop over 5F would be more ideal. Jim Goldie is
always respected around the northern tracks and saddles two in this
race. Always struggling with the handicapper and hard to win with he
has a previous place effort over 6F here and has ground and most
probably 5F here being ideal with a strong pace. Another who is very
exposed but his trainer was the last to win this with a 7yo. Never
managed to pick up from rear latest, stiffer track should help him
and place prospects could be obtained.
My Tissue Price – 10/1
6 – Tarabet – Slowly his mark
is coming down in the handicap after showing so much early season
promise as a 3yo (4L to King stand 2nd Dandy Man) and it seems that
he has never really progressed from there and future lies in
handicaps. Well beaten when sent off a 100-1 shot over 6F at York (Fonthill
Road finished in front) and may have found that a shade to far even
though York is quite a easy 6F. This 5F should help him to sustain
his effort and is better weighted with Fonthill Road so there may be
reason to see him get closer to that rival today. This track should
suit him but the conditions under foot have to be of a slight
negative here and the weights will start to favour him in a few more
runs time.
My tissue price - NR
7 – Orientor – The 2nd of Jim Goldie’s runners and the 2nd 9yo in
the field. Likely to have seen better days his handicap mark is
given a boost by the claimer keeping the ride after making some late
headway last time at Musselbrugh in the big race handicap there.
Massive swing in the weights with Fonthill road based on the Gold
cup form and may be angling towards another tilt at that as he
wasn’t disgraced last year (meet trouble in running). Handles give
in the ground and a winner over a stiff 5F at Sandown back in 2004
(last win). Has had some tough asks in between then and now but will
need to show a bit more then he has so far this season to be a 9yo
winner of this race.
My Tissue price – 12/1
8 – Buchaill Dona – Forget
the run where he was beaten last of six behind Orientor and River
Falcon who both meets him on better terms in this handicap but that
race wasn’t ran to suit as he saw plenty of daylight and potentially
failed to act on the quick ground and can expect nothing then a
better display today. Unexposed but talented in big fields with both
his quickest and in terms of form best efforts coming over 5 & 6F at
the galloping track of York (including 6f this season). The give in
the ground over 5F on a straight galloping track such as this should
be ideal and there wont be any excuses today other then just not
good enough if he was to fail to give his true running. Dandy
Nicholls has won this race twice in the last 10 years and this is
first of four runners.
My Tissue price - NR
9 – Tournedos – has had much
in favour in a few of his races and is yet to show too much for his
new yard but is quickly dropping down the weights to a attractive
mark and is more then capable of landing a race like this for Dandy
Nicholls. Partnered with Francis Norton Today and likely to make a
bold bid from the front from his low draw. Was staying on last time
at Musselbrugh in which he is dropped another 2lbs in the weight and
that was his best effort by far, Stiffer track today and a more
prominent role in the race he can latch on to the pace here but has
been deserted by Aiden Nicholls for today’s race. Looks a type for a
small field based on form and has ground to make up on a few of
these on recent runs. Certain winner when raced on good to firm
ground.
My Tissue Price – 14/1
10 – Caribbean Corral –
Decent 5F sprinter who finished well to just fail in the Epsom Dash
last time and on that run has the beating of a few of these. Already
a winner of this race as well as the Dash he is often targeted at
these races by John Quinn and won the dash before landing this prize
on his next run, which suggest he is one for a big field when in
flying form which he seems to be at this stage and better then ever
before. Has handled soft ground before when landing this prize as a
5yo. Finds himself 7lbs high in the handicap then when winning at
Chester and the last run shows that he is still on good terms with
himself and if getting the splits can land this prize again for a
yard that are always respected in handicaps.
My Tissue Price – 4/1
11 – Fire up the Band –
Non-Runner
12 – Turn on The Style – Was
beaten by Carribbean Corral at Chester over 5F after a winter of
progression that saw him return to the turf 20lbs higher then his
last winning mark. Plenty of pace for a sharp track he was beaten on
merit that day by John Quinn’s runner and finds himself fairly
weighted with that rival today. A winner on soft ground when beating
Zomerlust over 6F at Haydock so handles give in the ground but its
to be seen if he can reproduce the sort of form that he showed round
the tight turns of Lingfield at this level. Andrew Elliot is
enjoying a rich vein of winners at present and will ride this horse
with maximum amount of confidence and has to come into the equation.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
13 – Inter Vision – a
Handicapper who pops up at big prices and makes his seasonal
reappearance in a tough looking ask for him on the book. A winner in
big fields he is usually produced with a strong run at the business
end and is renowned for enjoying these sorts of conditions. A course
winner over 6F at a lower class rating he will need to be at his
best today to land this race and his best figure performances have
come when he has carried no more then 8st 6lbs so the handicapper
looks to have his measure at this level and with the recent returns
not yielding to much encouragements in years gone by he could well
need this today.
My Tissue Price – 22/1
14 – Green Park – All his
best form has come in the spring. His record reading no wins, no
places from 10 efforts in months June to August and he will be
looking to put those stats firmly in the bin today. British Summer
time has turned into springtime looking at the amount of rain
landing at this moment in time so he has no excuses based on the
ground with give suiting. With the speed for 5F, and a weight under
9 stone, he has all the trends in favour for his age group. Looking
at the original jockey bookings, this looks the 2nd string but he
has quite a bit in favour here and can fair better then in this race
last year, when given a tough ask for a 3yo.
My Tissue price – 6/1
15 – Continent – Now 10yo and
the oldest horse in the field but still seems to run well at this
level for Dandy Nicholls. Turned out quickly which he doesn’t mind
as he has gone well running twice in a week before, and has given a
good indication in the past that he does handle the track. More
progressive rivals should see to him not winning again over 5F here
and even though he has proved to act with cut in the ground, he is
yet to show up to well on really soft ground. 5lbs high in handicap
mark which should be enough to stop him winning this.
My Tissue Price – 20/1
16 – Prince Namid – Has a lot
in his favour after returning to form on Epsom oaks day, where he
finished a good 2nd to Songs of passion. Likes to get his toe in and
has a good long striding action for this ground where he shows
plenty of speed, potentially his best trip is 6F, but he shows
plenty over 5F. A galloping stiff minimum trip is ideal for him, so
there is limited question marks on the course. Trainer has a poor
(0-21) record in all age handicaps at this track, but with only
being 3lbs higher then last handicap win, good form coming into the
race and a racing weight where his eye catching performances have
come from. He should go very well in this race. Jockey booking isn’t
necessarily a big negative despite the 0-7 reading.
My Tissue Price – 6/1
17 – Overstayed – Another
potential improver in the field and one that will benefit for the
sub 9 stone for a 4yo on the trends of this race. Forget the run at
Epsom last time where the horse was unbalanced in the rear and never
going and may have found it all happening a little to quick. Heavy
ground winner on racing debut he has been kept well away from ground
with cut in since his 2yo day and may improve for returning to a
easier surface being by a good sire on ground like this. On Chester
running he needs to improve to have claims at this level and a
straight galloping 5F will help him to do this. Maybe just lacks the
natural class of some of these he should show up better then he has
recently.
My Tissue Price – 25/1
Tissue – Caribbean Coral 4/1, Prince Namid, Green Park
6/1, Bond City 9/1, River Falcon 10/1, Mecca’s Mate, Orientor, Turn
on the Style 12/1, Tournedos 14/1, Continent 20/1, Inter Vision
22/1, Overstayed 25/1.
Verdict – Depleted
field with 5 non runners, including the two top weights with lower
weighted horses involved in the race and they may be out to keep the
weight off their other horses in the field. Caribbean Coral, a
former winner of this race, has to be involved in the finish, as he
is on top of his game at present. It is no surprise to see him up as
favourite in this race now, with the non runners. The bookmakers
have really gone to town on this race having 8 of the 12 runners
left at single figure odds. Two at the bottom of the handicap I like
are Green park and Prince Namid, who both are value at 8-1, even
though double figure odds were what I was half expecting. Given
their profile’s they still appeal at the odds.
Selection –
Prince Namid 1pt @ 8-1 (BF 9.8)
& Green Park 1pt @ 8-1 (BF 9.8).
Well Chief
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