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Preview -
27 June 2007
4.00 Carlisle Cumberland
Plate Handicap class 4 3yo+ 0-80 12f
1 Tcherina The ground has
turned right for her at the right stage of the season and based on
her good ground form at York where the form was franked she has to
still be competitive of her current handicap mark despite failing to
follow up last time. That run was a good effort considering the
quick ground that day wasnt ideal for her to quicken off and better
is expected today now she is dropped back in class. Stays the trip
well and she has shown in the past that stiff tracks do suit
including a fair effort in this race last year. 7lbs higher then
York wins in which she had both Missoula & Fossgate in behind with
the former the best weighted of the 3 today. Top weight in a
competitive handicap may have her slightly stretched today but she
is well respected in this company.
My tissue price 13/2
2 Dium Mac No surprise to
see this horse stepped back up in trip after failing to land a blow
over a mile at Redcar last time. Fresh from that run the 11.5F here
today could be a little further then this gelding needs based on how
one paced he became in the final 2F at Pontefract over 12F behind La
Estrella who franked the form of the top weight. Has handled give in
the ground to good effect in the past and also has a stiff track win
to his name. Ran in this race last year in which he beat home
Tcherina on much favoured terms then today but has progressed over
300yards shorter since this run.
My tissue price 10/1
3 - Fossgate has a lot to
prove after finishing tailed off at York. Potentially this gelding
by Halling may have needed the run having previously shape as if
skinning fitter for the run and the swing in the weights today over
Tcherina will help his cause in this race even though it is
considerable ground to overturn. Effective on all sorts of ground
including ground with give in it as proving when sticking on to win
at Beverley despite hanging right. Returned to much better form last
time after being eased in the weights and goes especially well
around this time of the year. Back up 2lbs in weight and a stiff
course winner his stamina should see him in good stead with the
field size much in his favour.
My Tissue price 16/1
4 Oddsmaker Fully exposed
gelding by Barathea who is un-likely to win off a mark that he has
failed in so many attempts to do so far in his career, but did
return to form in good style last season when winning back to back
middle distance races at Haydock a track that suits his style of
running. Stays further then this based on two good wins over 14F in
small fields. The bigger field today and the likely stronger pace
should help his stamina come into play over 2.5F less the when
winning at Musselbrugh last time and you he has a chance of winning
when Dean Mckewon is booked for the ride having rode 5 of his 6 wins
so far.
My tissue price 20/1
5 Tsaroxy Winner on his
last start when winning a poor event at Hamilton over 9F in a field
that contained a lot of horses who find it hard to win and Tsaroxy
comes out of that race the best of a bad bunch. Stepping back up in
trip in a big field handicap in which stamina will come into play,
he has to prove that he will see out this trip today even though
proving that some cut in the ground does suit (wouldnt want it to
soft) based on a fair effort behind Macrovile last season. Goes well
after a break so no fitness worry over the 47-day break; the extra
distance in a big field is the main concern and based on Newcastle
form is very tightly tied in on form with Sir Arthur & Dium Mac who
has a jockey booked for today.
My tissue price 16/1
6 Diamonds And Dust
returns from hurdling after failing in 4 attempts to show much and
left the flat very much in good form in claimers at Lingfield and if
the confidence was still in place this gelding could be interesting
back in handicaps of a mark of 75. Handles cut in the ground but
like Tsaroxy wouldnt want it too soft underfoot despite being by
Mister Baileys a fine soft ground sire. Returns to handicapping
company a massive 9lbs lower then when last seen in handicaps last
season in which he was well beaten on very quick ground (not ideal)
over a mile at Yarmouth. Stayed well on the All weather but with the
more testing conditions against him today and a stiffer track he
will have to prove that he still has the ability and the stamina to
last a good test (failed to stay over hurdles so stamina
limitations).
My Tissue price 20/1
7 Prince Charlemagne
Comes here having failed to build on a fair 5th at Windsor back in
April and may have benefited that day from having a fitness edge on
his rivals. Usually kept on the go as he improves for racing within
2 weeks of each run it seems that the stable have been reluctant to
run him to protect his handicap mark for this race today as he finds
himself 6lbs lower then when winning a Redcar Handicap over 11F on
good racing ground. Yet to really show to much on ground with cut in
it he does handle good racing ground to good effect so if the ground
isnt too soft he should get away with it. Large fields are
questionable as to how he acts in them and a very strong pace may
have his stamina questionable even though on breeding he should get
this trip. James Doyle has won all 5 of his wins and the return to
the saddle is a big bonus but he does need to bounce back to form.
My Tissue price 14/1
8 Missoula Finished well
beaten in the end behind Tcherina at York but has a inviting weight
swing here for Mark Tompkins of 12lbs in weight. Still unexposed his
3yo form behind the likes of Shortest Day gives him claims at this
level of handicap. Beat Dium Mac home when finishing behind the
likes of High Treason and Forroger at Haydock over 11F, that was a
good effort for first run back and was eased when it was apparent
that he wouldnt be winning and has to be noted that still beat Dium
Mac home. The run at York in a handicap that is working out well she
was disappointing as she could only manage the one pace and with her
being a lightly raced fillies she may have found that race to soon
after her reappearance making the 42days of the track since to her
benefit. Give in ground, big field and strong pace all should suit
this horse by Kalanisi as stamina will be her biggest attribute. The
Dazzler does well for Mark Tompkins.
My tissue price 9/2
9 Sir Arthur Unlucky when
just failing to last out the trip in a small field at Beverley last
time on quick ground but looks ready to strike for Mark Johnston who
has been patient with this gelding while he has run up a losing run
of 9 races. Off the same mark today as last run he has to have
claims for a 4yo at a major stable who finds himself 4lbs lower then
last win in the handicap and if he sees the trip out will take some
beating with this trip likely to be a shade over his ideal trip of
9/10 furlongs. Consistent on stiff tracks such as Beverley and from
a yard that is top of the pile at the northern tracks Sir Arthur has
claims in big fields under Kevin Darley who rides the horse well
from the front. No worries on the ground front and its mainly a case
of will he stay the trip from the front?
My tissue price 8/1
10 Pocketwood Narrow
winner last time over 12F when just beating Fregate Island home at
Folkestone in what was a muddling affair in which he was able to
make all in and he had been knocking on the door having previously
finished 2nd at Newbury. The form of that Folkestone win has been
well franked by the 3rd who won all out at Sandown next time out.
Transvestite gives the form some form line with Tcherina York win
with the finishing position of that horse in this race (a race to
suit) maybe giving it more franking then the York form. 5yo and
lightly raced he has been perfectly laid out for this race and
should get a good run of the race with the trip ideal and ease in
the ground suiting. He is only 2lbs higher then last winning mark
and is on the mark in which he won off at Newbury back in 2005.
My tissue price 7/1
11 Magic Sting Has a
mounting to climb based on her laboured effort behind Sir Arthur in
which she weakened rapidly out of contention. Booked with a useful
claimer who is good value for his claim she is taken down to a nice
racing weight for todays race at a track her trainer does well at.
She is in desperate need of some form and the 7lbs dropped in weight
from last run with the addition of the claimer should help her. The
ground suits today as she acts well with getting her toe in and she
does well this time of year over trips such as this. A drop in class
and a track in which she should handle she could easily bounce back
to form but when your best recent effort is a 2nd to Neils Legacy
then maybe u could make a case that she has regressed over the
winter.
My tissue price 25/1
12 Lady Songbird Just go
there to deny Pocketwood a win at Newbury over 12F and may have
needed every last metre of that race to score in a true end to end
gallop. If they go fast enough this time around she could once again
come home strong to claim them all on the line for Walter Swimburns
team. Unexposed and potentially a improver from a yard who do
generally get there horses well handicapped from a young age to pick
up races in handicaps (cutting Crew, Fairmile, Stortsfold just a
few) and she could be better then her new handicap mark of 72 as the
form has been well franked by the 2nd Pocketwood. This shorter trip
may not be most ideal but with cut in the ground she may stay on
well enough to pick them off here with the stiffer course playing to
her strengths.
My tissue price 6/1
13 Cotton Eyed Joe
Another last time out winner in this race. Trained by Alan Swimbank
who does so well with middle distance handicappers and turns this
horse out quite quickly to have a crack at this. 4th in this race
last term has to give him a fantastic chance with Tcherina and Dium
Mac both in behind in which he meets again here on better terms. The
ease in the ground has little effect unless turning very soft under
foot while we know that the trip stamina wise isnt a concern and
with a course win under his belt (wullmeister well beaten) in which
they all came in at big gaps (first two clear) he may be rated
better then that poor handicap and this will give him a much sterner
test in a big field.
My Tissue Price 5/1
14 Skylarker Would be a
great training performance for a small setup to get this horse back
and winning after 629 days of the course in which he returns just
7lbs lower then when he left the track. Now 9yrs old he is very
unlikely to retain the same ability as prior to his absence in which
he was with the Kittow Yard and maybe when running back on his
favoured good to firm ground will be when he can pick up a small
race for his new connections.
My Tissue price 40/1
15 Grizeback Another
horse that has the beating of Wullimeister on form having beaten him
when un-favoured by the odds at Newcastle in a maiden. Best not
follow that maiden as it has been a poor source of form and with all
the main market rivals flopping it is turning out to be a poor early
season maiden. Has had problems so far in his career and this will
be only his 4th run as a 5yo and with the yard so out of form there
has to be some concerns as to how well this horse will perform. The
stiff track should suit and on breeding has plenty in his favour.
My Tissue price 28/1
16 Court of Appeal Old
timer who has been around the circuit a few times and has been a
great servant to the Brian Ellison yard. The yard has struggled to
win races at this track (0-22 all age hdcp) and this horse has never
managed to win a race with 16 or more runners in 15 attempts so the
basic stats are pretty much against the horse. Not particularly well
handicapped on form at this stage of his career but is suited to the
ground and should see out the trip. Been in form of late around
Catterick where he is at his best he has the handicapper on him for
this run and without Jamie Moriaty taking the 5lbs off him he looks
held by Cotton Eyed Joe on form behind Greenwhich Meantime last
season (Chester cup winner).
My Tissue price 22/1
17 Wullmeister Well
beaten by Cotton Eyed Joe here last time and was beaten in a bigger
field by Grizeback in a poor maiden race and is looking very exposed
for a maiden in a competitive handicap today. Hard to find any
reason for those defeats and even though better of at the weights
with Dium Mac on Pontefract running he was well beaten for a 8-1
shot and is one very much to watch rather then back until he finds
some sort of form.
My Tissue price 66/1
Tissue Missoula 9/2, Cotton Eyed Joe 5/1, Lady Songbird
6/1, Tcherina 13/2, Pocketwood 7/1, Sir Arthur 8/1, Dium Mac 10/1,
Prince Charlemange 14/1, Tsaroxy, Fossgate 16/1, Diamonds And Dust,
Oddsmaker 20/1, Court Of Appeal 22/1, Magic Sting 25/1, Grizeback
28/1, Skylarker 40/1, Wullimester 66/1.
Verdict An open
looking handicap. The 11-4 on offer with most bookmakers on Lady
Songbird doesnt look too generous, as there is little between her
and pocketwood on form, and that rival is 12-1 in some areas and
17s on Betfair. There is still some 13/2 available on Cotton Eyed
Joe and that can be regarded as value, while Tcherina at 10-1 makes
some appeal in a wide open betting heat. Missoula is better then her
York form suggests and 14-1 is a very big price with most bookmakers
and she is well worth investing in at the current odds. Sir Arthur
at 10-1 is a fair price as well. But with the market made by the
Walter Swinburn runner my 3 against the field are :-
Selection
Missoula 1pt @ 14-1 (17s BF),
Pocketwood 1pt @ 12-1 (17s BF) &
Tcherina 1pt @ 10-1 (11s BF).
Well Chief
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