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Preview 22 June 2007

 

4.20 Wolfton Handicap - Listed Race (class 1) 

(4yo+ 0-110) 10F Good g/s

1 - Imperial Star - Ran a cracker in a competitive listed race at Goodwood won by Illustrious Blue and had 3 of today's rivals in that race of level weights. The task was made harder for Imperial Star who had to carry a Listed race penalty that may have just stopped him from beating the first two home as lbs to length the 3lbs would have had him finishing just in front. Of those rivals he meets here today he is 1lb worse off with Charlie Cool and 2lbs worse off with Championship Point. Unexposed he could prove to be a nice horse in time and may make up into a group horse if you believe his Sefton handicap flop (13/2 against Manduro) was coming to soon in his career. Top weight in a tough looking handicap may slow him up but his trainer has a good record in all age handicaps and is in form. The ground may become slightly against him today, as genuine quick ground looks most ideal on what we have seen and his breeding.

My Tissue Price - 12/1

2 - Road to Love - Was lining up as a very solid looking bet in this handicap before the overnight rain came along and is very tightly tied in on form with Imperial star based on last running at Goodwood. Ideally suited to a right-handed course this track plays well to his strengths and last years all the way success in the Brunswick handicap is most probably the best piece of Ascot form of all the runners in this race. Found life harder since being tried in-group and Listed company, but returned to form latest at Goodwood when finding more to finish 2nd at Goodwood. If the ground had stayed good to firm he would have been very hard to beat today under the champion jockey Ryan Moore. More exposed then few rivals in this race and most probably open to less improvement he was unsuited to the track when beaten by Classic Punch at Epsom last season in which many similar keen front running sorts are and was hampered as well which gives that piece of form something to swerve on. The ground hasn't gone totally against him but it will make life harder. Ideally drawn in the high numbers to bag the rail he should see off Prince of Light at the front of affairs.

My Tissue Price - 6/1

3 - Charlie Cool - Has franked the listed race at Goodwood by winning under today's jockey in fine style when staying on under pressure to beat Shmookh and hinterland readily and bounce back to form. Has some ground to make up on Road to Love and Imperial Star on Goodwood form but not totally out of the question as proves to better horse around this time of year and was not given a clear run when meeting those rivals. 1lb better off with Imperial Star on that run he could well close up the gap with those two today and with good speed figures, ground and ideal trip he has to be respected from a yard that is simply flying into form. The headgear helped to light him up once he was produced and it may have just brought him back to form so 6L at Goodwood may be overcome if getting the run of the race. There are little negatives apart from the beating he took that day and given how well the John Smith Stakes Handicap has worked out from last season he could well confirm the form with Classic Punch despite the swing in weight, but Dansili Dancer makes a more interesting rival on that running.

My Tissue Price - 8/1

4 - Championship Point - Mick Channon yard is having a hit and miss time of it as the trainer strings a load of 2nd s together on his recent form figures. Championship Point has to improve on his latest effort at Goodwdood and may just fall short at this level now after previously winning in listed company as a 2yo at Royal York winning the Chesham stakes that year. On form he is held and that is a major disadvantage as their wasn't any really reason for the defeat and he has only 2lb give in helping him to be seen better this time which doesn't look enough with no really major advantages drawn from today's conditions and race being run to suit at a stiffer track.

My Tissue Price - 20/1

5 - Heaven Sent - On the upgrade based on her eye-catching success at Ascot 2 runs ago in which she cleared away in good style over a mile. That race was very much a easier assignment and not much has come out to run well since so the form could be slightly cautious and of others with Ascot form it rates slightly inferior to a few of them. Stepping up in trip for the first time the trainer knows what he has and she rates as interesting on that alone. She is by Pivotal whose offspring's usually are best around the mile mark she may find a few of these slightly to strong for her at this stage over 10F but any ease in the ground shouldn't hinder her chances.

My Tissue Price - 9/1

6 - Stotsfold - Trainer has blamed the ground for his defeat at Chester in which rain made it slightly softer then ideal so the fact their has been rain around for today rates his chances down here as well. Battling to overcome 13lbs higher in the handicap he is re-partnered with Ted Durcan who missed out on this horse progression and it appears Walter wants a more experienced horseman for the big races such as this in which his amount needs assistance to be winning. Not happy hunting ground for the stable so far and double handed in this race; Stortsfold looks more the 2nd string in this class of race today. Beaten by several of these so far in his career on softer surfaces and also Classic Punch on favoured ground he has quite a bit to find to be reversing any form lines today of this current mark.

My Tissue Price - 33/1

7 - Emirates Skyline - Returned to winning ways last time at York and very much needs a big field with plenty of cover and a strong pace. The way he angled out at York that day was the mark of a horse that is capable of competing at a very much better level then a handicapper. With the rain making the surface more to his liking, he has to take all the beating now. The form of the race has been well franked by Flipando in the Zetland Gold Cup and the 2nd is thought to be on the look out for Pattern class races, so that effort of top weight was very taking. The Stable are in form, although they are best in group races, rather then listed handicaps. But if they are to win a handicap, then it would be this today. No obvious meetings with any of the others in the field, the 6lbs penalty on this ground today doesn't look to hold him up and listed races of level look to be future for this horse. Big chance.

My Tissue Price - 11/4 FAV

8 - Tucker - ran a very good race last time behind unshakable at Epsom a race in which the 2nd was very well supported for the Hunt Cup the other day just to run flat and well beaten. Was well beaten here on soft ground but the track isn't likely to be as slow as it was that day here and he has got some good form on the track based on 2nd to Prince of Thebes. Worth another go at 10F having been not to disgrace when given a hard task of beating the Eclipse winner at Goodwood, which as you would expect wasn't up to it. Handicaps are where his future lies for Walter Swimburn and usually best caught early in the season. Hayley Turner gets on well with the horse and he does have the beating of quite a few of these even though a smaller field would suit him best and he most probably has more negatives then ticks in the boxes, but looks the first string for the trainer.

My Tissue Price - 18/1

9 - Prince Of Light - Well beaten in the royal hunt cup finishing 15th and wasn't knocked about after being headed so he should be fit and well to go again for a yard who turns them out well quickly. Based on Zetland form 10F would be his ideal trip and there could be a case of team tactics up front with the stable other runner and it may be that Prince of light is settled into the race and produced later today in order to get the trip. Best on a sharp track his stamina will need to last out and that is a negative but he does come to head at around this time of the year and Joe Fanning is partnered with the horse once again and does well at Ascot for the trainer. Best in a small field where he can dictate the tempo he may not need that today and by a sire in which shorter may be best he is best watched on this 10F that will take some getting today. Ground ok.

My tissue Price - 20/1

10 - Classic Punch - Lightly raced and given some tough asks such as the Irish Derby and the Gordon stakes at Goodwood. Has some good form to tie in with others in this race in that he has beaten Road to Love (course unsuited) and smashed Stortsfold in his Windsor Maiden (progressed rival) and both could be misleading as those rivals both have more weight to carry suggesting they have either progressed or are regarded better then that bare form. Big swing in the weights with Charlie Cool on their running in the John Smith Handicap at Newbury and has got some claims to reversing that form even though at that time Charlie Cool was highly progressive and it will be interesting how they fair up this time around. Beat Ask over 10F a horse who has progressed to beat Scorpion at Chester. Ground and trip may have some concerns as he isn't the best breed in the field for these conditions and has some ground to make up but the size of field and likely pace means he will at least get the race to suit which is a bonus. Handicapped to go well in this the absence from course may have him needing it at this level despite the fresh record and Elsworth being a master of getting them ready.

My Tissue Price - 18/1

11 -Lake Poet - Looking to make it 3 straight wins after back to back victories at Epsom to in which he had Tabdual and Stortsfold two horses who I have earmarked down as likely outsiders to land this prize and Clive Brittan horse who is a course specialist should struggle in this high grade of race. 10F winner he is consistent over a variety of trips even though being by Gallieo u would imagine this to be the most ideal for his best performances. Super Seb rides and his record on the horse is only 2nd to that of Frankie on Emirates Skyline in this race. The race has much in favour for a bold hatrick bid but he is likely to be lbs better at Epsom and his trainer is a much bigger force in handicaps there then here. There is a chance he will improve again but is quite exposed and what I remember of him I wouldn't say in stature he will progress to be listed / group class horse.

My Tissue Price - 16/1

12 - Star of Light - Given a tough ask on return to the course by taking a listed class race on in which Mountain was a good winner off and ran with some promise in that race to give hope that he will be back amongst the handicap winners soon enough. Gained course experience that day most probably in prep for this after a sound run last year in this very race in which he finished a good 5th behind several winners including Crosspeace & Blue Monday. This race was a good race for Mark Johnston and you would imagine he would know through his other horses just how he fairs up against Star of Light who based on this running has to have a chance after skinning fitter for the run last time. Good racing ground looks ideal and he handles cut as well as quick ground, which would be his preference (soft last time maybe to tough). Enjoys big handicaps such as this and course form from this last year is most probably only just shaded by prince of Light performance here last season as well. Much to good for Tabdual on turf on 3lbs worse terms at Newmarket even though that rival has improved its hard to see a turn around in form here, Star of Light may have most questions asked by Dansil Dancer on recent meetings. That run his last of the season there must have been something wrong with the horse and is wasn't a surprise to not see him again that season, was nothing to do with being over ran as he was given enough time in between races and it may just have been one of those days that it went wrong. 4lbs weighted better today. Richard Hughes gets the leg up today and Brian Meehan will be hoping for a change in fortune.

My Tissue Price - 10/1

13 - Tabadual - Yet to prove as effective on turf as the Kempton Polytrack in which he progressed so well on last season. 3lbs worse off with Star of Light on Newmarket running over 9F he never looked like beating that rival that day and with the weights against him and so much in favour of that rival he could once again be found wanting. A tougher ask then the Epsom handicap in which Lake Poet won and even with better terms it is one of those races which could be lacking in real class quality to be winning this type of handicap. Exposed now his speed level on turf have been less impressive then others and previous run at this track was less then eye catching being beaten even by Red lancer a handicapper at a lower level now. The ground is improving for him but the 99 marks is just a shade too high in the handicap and he looks likely to struggle to win in this company on turf.

My Tissue price - 18/1

14 - Purple Moon - Last seen over hurdles for Nicky Richards and now transferred back to the flat and with Luca Cumani are failing to make a lasting impression over timber. Formerly With Sir Michael Stoute he was last seen on the flat over 12F here in a heritage handicap won by useful soft ground performer Peppertree land of Mark Johnston and I doubt there has been to much improvement on his 3yo form for a brief hurdling campaign apart from maybe being able to settle better in his races. Stoute doesn't hastily get rid of them from the flat if he thinks they may amount to something and the strong owners haven't got to where they are now by not playing the game shrewdly. Hard to see him ever amounting to the next suability over hurdles and wouldn't be a surprise to see him aimed at the Ebor for Luca in the coming months. Talented horse that may have learnt a lot but there are a few questions that need answering and is best watched on return to the level.

My tissue Price - 13/1

15 - Dansil Dancer - Always worth taking notice of Cox runners with the master Tactician on board and the jockey has been seen to good effect on this horse in the past. A low weight and only a 3lb higher mark to overcome from the Haydock win over Farmile this horse was in good form around this time of the year but comes here this time in search of a return to form after finding a 12lb higher mark hard to overcome in the same race he won last year at Goodwood. Beaten by a progressive rival he does look like he may struggle to win again just yet and may need an easier assignment. The ground doesn't un-suit but others have most probably got better form on the going and his run in the royal hunt cup last term has him needing to turn around form with the likes with Tucker on worse terms. Beat Star of Light at Haydock but that rivals run mystery as to what went wrong even if that trip may have him as a doubtful stayer. A strong pace in this race will have him better off as he does see out further and the stone in weight on Kempton listed form he may have needed it so on form lines has claims.

My Tissue Price - 13/1

16 - Wordly Wise - hard to know what quite to fathom from his Irish form and not a trainer I know too much about. Raingpost analysis said showed signs of returning to form at Leopardstown but on ratings I have him with something to find at the weights today on what he has actually achieved. Little unsure on ground and Trip today with the rain having come and slowed it up a little and he is likely to bounce back to form when back in his native Ireland.

My Tissue Price - 25/1

Tissue Prices - Emirates Skyline 11-4, Road to Love 6-1, Charlie Cool 8-1, Heaven Sent 9-1, Star of Light 10-1, Imperial Star 12-1, Dansil Dancer, Purple Moon 13-1, Lake Poet 16-1, Tabadual, Classic Punch, Tucker 18-1, Prince of Light, Championship Point 20-1, Wordly Wise 25-1, Strotsfold 33-1

Verdict – A quality race as usual and one that often is a good guide to upcoming handicaps. The winner of this race in the main goes on to better races and this year, unlike last year is very much different, in that the likely winner is to be seen in better company and not go off hurdling like last years winner did. Emirates Skyline has to take all the beating today now with the rain getting in the ground. If it was to stay dry Road to Love would had a outstanding chance at landing this handicap and has to be one for the notebook for Goodwood for his trainer who has a great record there. Charlie Cool is likely to get closer this time then at Goodwood and holds some value at best price 16-1 that can be obtained if you shop around. Of those at bigger prices Dansil Dancer and Star of Light looks solid value, while Classic Punch at 33-1 should be noted. Imperial Star, Stortfold, Wordly Wise, heaven Sent and Lake Poet are not my idea of value selections in this race, the others are quite close to what I expected. Favs don't have a bad record in this race and 4yo in general do well while 9 stone or more hasn't been a problem in the past as classy horses have won this race…..SO ...

Selection  Emirates Skyline 3pts win @ 9-2 Lads. (BF 4.5-1) Backing on high street 

(btw 5pts is max bet)

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