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Preview -
15 June 2007
7.25 The Peter Opal Stakes
Handicap (4yo+ 0-80) 7F Good
1 – Ivory Lace – Comes here
under a penalty which she picked up 6 days ago when winning a lower
grade handicap over 7F at Lingfield a course that she had failed to
win at in the past but handles the slight down hill finish well and
seems to do well at courses that are undulating and down hill so
this Goodwood galloping track shouldn’t hold any fears for her
having twice won over sprint distances at Bath which apart from
being left handed isn’t to far from this type of track. Is well
exposed but the 6lbs penalty leaves her on a mark that isn’t out of
the question of her overcoming here. Partnered with Jim Crowley she
has a field that should suit her style of running and even though at
best of quick ground she does handle good racing ground having won 3
times on it. She is exposed and potentially vulnerable to an
improver under top weight here in a harder race and draw 1 isn’t
totally ideal over this 7F.
My Tissue Price – 10/1
2 – Tara Too – A course
winner when landing a 6F sprint in which she had Ivory Lace well
beaten in behind and comes into this race needing to find some form
having been beaten 11L last time out and never looking like winning
a 7F soft ground handicap at Leicester. However she never really
shows form before winning next time as her form proves and she has
been dropped another 2lb for that last run making her 3lbs lower
then when she was successful at this track. The change in track is
likely to favour her more as Leicester Stiff track would have not
suited her and with her being much better on Good to firm ground
then soft the good ground if drying out before post time will only
help her chances of going better. 7F hasn’t ever been her ideal trip
with form figures of 44774985, but some of those efforts were
against the highest of oppositions which would have them a short
price in this race today so today’s 7F should be her best chance
over this trip so far. Trainer needs to improve on all age handicap
form here but she has some chance of landing this prize today if
getting the run of the race.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
3 – Material Witness – Was a
bet for me last week when he once again didn’t get the trip and
defiantly looks like time has well and caught up with him and with
no change in his handicap mark he has been given a easier task in
opponents then last time as he has to carry more weight this time
around. Has quit a bit of ground to make up on running here with
Scarlet Flyer but has 9lbs in his favour to help and close the gap.
Front runner in both of his last two runs here he was given the run
of the race in front and even though when tackled earlier when
encountering Scarlet Flyer he did have the race to run out in front
to at least one out before weakening when tackled in front. The
slower ground won’t help as they are likely to group up just behind
him and Blue Java is likely to take him on early enough again. The
bonus is Martin Dwyer for this horse as he gets the fractions more
right then any of the other jockeys on this front-runner but I will
have to overlook this horse this time around until lowered in grade
here.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
4 – Scarlet Flyer – Winner
over course and distance last time in which he had the run of the
race picking up nicely to win with a strong finish with the help of
the blinkers that day. It’s to be seen if the blinkers have worked
the trick long term, as that was his lowest handicap mark for some
time. Meets Material witness on 9lbs worse terms and may just about
confirm superiority over that rival today in a similar race and good
racing ground is no problem to him easier but wouldn’t want it soft
under foot. Meets Blue Java on 3lbs worse terms for 1.5L and that
may be enough to reverse the form that rival likely to get the run
of the race unless Ryan Moore back for this horse can gain a few
extra lbs and the blinkers retain their effect. Still 1lb lower then
when winning at Brighton he is very effective in around this level
and at the top of the handicap and is sure to still give a good
account.
My Tissue Price – 6/1
5 – Blue Java – Likely to
have the run of the race again like last time when getting a toe
through the race by Material Witness and it could be second time
lucky for the jockey on this horse when committing him to his
challenge on the front runner. He looked the winner last time before
getting collared and there could have been a point that the jockey
lost his head and went a shade to early when tackling the
front-runner whose fitness today should help him to give something
to shoot at in front. Ideally suited to this track with 2 wins and a
place and the 1lb added to his handicap shouldn’t be enough to stop
him from the all out win over Dr Synn (Ivory lace well beaten in
behind). The less quick ground shouldn’t be a problem and Travis
Block has a good 5-17 rides here and jockey/trainer combo works well
with Hugh Morrison having made a good start to the season the now 25
days without a winner is easily overcome for a trainer who keeps
them turning over throughout the year.
My Tissue Price – 7/2
6 – Grey Boy – Struggled to
really get going in a warwick handicap which has worked out well
from a form prospective and this is likely to rate as a easier race
then that and Grey Boy who very much needs a return to form finds
himself 7lbs lower then when winning a class 3 handicap over 8F from
the useful Bustan when with Richard Fahey and in which will be his
3rd start for Tony Carroll he seemly has gone backwards and needs to
find his class of old. Only 6yo and fairly lightly raced prior to
last season he still has something to offer at this level and the
better ground is very much likely to suit him today if staying dry.
Darryl Holland is booked for the ride tonight and there is a chance
that he may go from the front here which potentially would change
the whole outlook on the race as Grey Boy is better over 8F then 7F.
However Grey Boy best form has all come on more flat galloping track
then this and seems to be best when turned out after a good effort
as when beating Pintle by 5L which is form that would have him clear
here but maybe with a better run here the next run will be the time
to catch him as he is well handicapped.
My Tissue Price – 14/1
7 – California Laws – First
Start fro Ralf Beckett after running up a hatrick of wins for David
Barron at Southwell a track that the trainer does very well with any
of his runners. Beat Waterside in a class 2 handicap on last run,
which stands up as real solid handicapping form. The change from the
deep surface of southwell to turf is uncertain to suit his style and
best turf efforts have come on soft surface so any rain will just
help to make his chance much better and there is a possibility that
will happen with the overcast look to today in the south east. Seb
Sanders booking for the stable is always a good sign and this horse
is dropped 10lbs from that All weather win in which his best winning
mark in 20lbs higher then turf so you could say it is a formality if
transferring the form to turf here on first start for a inform
stable. However if it stays dry the ground may well be against him
and the stable form in all age handicaps at Goodwood is 0-21 but he
is a certain winner when getting his ground even though Barron to
Beckett isn’t necessarily a positive transfer.
My Tissue Price – 5/1
8 – Gavarine Beau – Was
sticking on at Newmarket last time and nearly gave his place
supporters a nice coup and is certainly well handicapped if you was
to believe he retains ability of old which had him a 83 winner on a
easy surface at Leicester. Enjoys a stiff sprint test with wins on
soft surfaces at Haydock and Leicester and shouldn’t be to far of
braking his losing run which now stretches to 14 runs. The step up
in trip on a less stiff galloping track isn’t ideally going to suit
as he is 0-3 in tries over this trip and being by Imperial Ballet he
is always likely to be best at Sprint trips. Ted Durcan booked for
the ride give some hope of a experience handler and with a trainer
that hasn’t had a winner for 93 days and has poor form at this track
there is enough negatives against him even though the blinkers did
give some hope last time but its to be seen if they will have the
same effect in this better grade of race.
My Tissue Price – 20/1
9 – Binnion Bay – Seasonal
campaigner who comes alive when tackling rivals on the all weather
and returns to the turf looking well handicapped again and not far
of striking most probably in a lower grade then this handicap but at
the weights has to be involved in a close looking handicap. Didn’t
really show much in two all weather handicaps after back to back
wins but is dropped 7lbs for return to turf and has ground in which
he goes best on providing once again no more rain is to come. Bigger
fields seem to suit him better but he has won twice in these size
fields while on a form line with Sun catcher he does have a chance
at the weights based on that rivals achievements and with 8F suiting
better his best hopes lie on The Grey boy helping to force the pace
so his come from behind tactics have him landing this prize.
My Tissue Price – 8/1
10 – Capricho – the old boy
of the field for a trainer that is in form and has a excellent
record here and the booking of Paul Doe for runners at this track is
always eye catching even though he is 0-12 on this horse which rates
as a negative stat in my eyes. 2L to make up on Scarlet Flyer on
last running here he often saves his best for round here and with
limited improvement his many hope lies with the swing in the weights
as he is 2lbs better of with Blue Java & 3lbs better off with
Scarlet Flyer. Best on quick ground the slightly less quick ground
tonight won’t suit him as much as last time and with him being
regressive he is vulnerable to these two finding more for the run
last time. 6L to find with Binnion Bay on Lingfield running he is
around 6-8lbs better on turf and didn’t have the run of the race
that day. 7F suits better then the 8F that day but is 6lbs worse off
at the weights and with Goodwood more his course he is closely
matched back on turf with his conqueror that day.
My Tissue price – 9/1
Tissue Prices – Blue Java 7/2, California Laws 5/1, Scarlet
Flyer 6/1, Binnion Bay 8/1, Capricho 9/1, Ivory Lace 10/1, Material
Witness, Tara Too 12/1, The Grey Boy 14/1, Gaverine Beau 20/1
Verdict – Any 4-1
available on Blue Java looks a
solid bet, while the short tissue price on
California laws looks on the skinny side in a decent turf
handicap as its not a sporting price to find out if he is as
effective on turf as his all weather marks suggest.
Tara Too is the bookies rag and
holds some value on the high street at 20/1 despite having a few
things to prove today.
Selection –
Blue Java 2pts win @ 4-1 (BF 5.0) & Tara Too
0.5pts @ 20-1 (BF 31-1)
Well Chief
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