|
Preview
12 June 2007
4.30 Redcar – John Smiths Redcar
Straight Mile Championship (Handicap) Qualifier class 3 (3yo+ 0-95)
Gd – Firm
1 – Nanton – Has strong
claims from top weight in this event having twice ran at Redcar and
both times getting his head in front. Was staying on to good effect
when squeezed out at Ripon last time over 10F. Dropped back to a
mile today at his favourite track should suit as the straight
galloping mile suits him well on a flat track such as this.
Handicapped up to his best he is still capable of striking despite
being well exposed and may have improved from 4 to 5yo to have some
progression from his current mark. Ground is ideal for him here and
the claimer booked helps to take some of the weight off him. 6lbs
worse off with Stoic leader on course running but had a considerable
distance advantage and comes here in better form today.
My Tissue Price – 8/1
2 – Riley’s Boys – First run
of the season and has a large weight to carry for a stable that
doesn’t have many winners at Redcar but comes here in flying form
and their runner here has won fresh before. Best when given a stiff
track to tackle this course doesn’t look the ideal course form him
over a galloping mile when he needs a bigger test of stamina. The
large field will help his cause to get a strong gallop and this
quick ground is ideal for him to run on. Joe Fanning is a positive
booking for this stable and has his first ride on the horse today.
Have form ties with a few of these in which he meets Wigwam Willie
on the same terms and may struggle to confirm form here and Stoic
Leader on Chester form from 2yrs ago in which he meets very wrong at
the weights here but while one has progressed the other has
regressed so there is every chance the weight swing can be held in
his favour here. The most interesting weight swing has to be when
running at Beverley over 10F and beating Dium Mac who doesn’t have
the lady claimer on and is only 1lb better of with for 3.3/4L
beating and looking at it may struggle to confirm that running here.
My Tissue Price – 14/1
3 – Will He Wish – Finally
returned to form last time when winning a class 3 handicap at
Haydock and ended a long losing run by beating Harare by a single
length on good to firm ground. Under a penalty here he is still
lower then his best handicap winning mark but it is hard to see him
back to his best here but has ground and trip very much in his
favour. Change of Jockey isn’t necessarily a positive given that Ted
Durcan isn’t a usual booking for the yard. Trainer has an ok record
around here but this looks a more competitive affair but the big
field doesn’t hold any problems to the horse. More effective on turf
then the Polly track at Wolverhampton he should hold every chance of
confirming that run behind Dig Deep with Stoic Leader and with the
other Whittaker Horse still around the same terms as a Doncaster run
a few years back in which will he wish gave it a big beating he has
a strong hand in this race with the form in the book. However he may
find it hard work beating Waterline Twenty if that rival handles
track well on these terms but comes here having rediscovered his
form.
My Tissue Price – 14/1
4 – Wigwam Willie – Best with
cut in the ground today’s conditions may be slightly on the fast
side for him here and that has to be a big concern with this being a
hot race. Starting to get back to a winner able mark his form line
with Riley’s Boy would have him beating that rival today if the
ground wasn’t overly fast and with the stable that does very well
here and number one choice Neil Callen on top his supporters should
be praying for a monsoon in the next few hours.
My Tissue Price – 16/1
5 – Stoic Leader – Badly
needs to return to form and is back down to last winning mark which
was at Musselbrugh over 7F back in August and has been heavily tried
since that win which has come with no success and a yard not having
a winner for quite some time is a concern to the chances of this
horse. A course and distance winner in the past as well as one that
goes very well on quick ground Stoic Leader has plenty in favour
today for a big run and with some interesting form lines he is
closely matched with a few of these but where as he could be
entitled to get close to quite a few of these on past meetings he is
very much out of form and has to show more then the performance at
Musselbrugh in which he was well beaten in last time and with this
being a similar race he looks held these days.
My Tissue Price – 25/1
6 – Dium Mac – Another
previous course winner and one that is dropping to a handicap mark
in which he is entitled to give a bold show in. Massive drop in trip
from the tough staying ask of 12F last time and this mile maybe is
slightly on the sharp side having failed in 3 attempts over a mile
to win. However with good solid form over 9f and 10F and a big field
to help the pace along Dium Mac may just see this trip out at the
business end to score. From the York handicap over 10F that has
worked out well he was well beaten that day but has been dropped in
grade since then and given a chance by the handicapper at the
weights today. Should have enough to reverse form with Riley’s Boy
and Jimmy Quinn who rides a few others is a good booking for this
stable and has to rate as one with a good chance today if getting
the run of the race.
My Tissue Price – 10/1
7 – Waterline Twenty – Ran
very well as a 3yo and finds herself very well weighted with Will he
Wish on Lingfield running behind Mina Salem and should benefit for
the return to turf after not really finding his feet on the Polly
track this winter. Best on a sharp track, this galloping mile may
not be ideal for the horse having to show the same form since 2yo
days on the galloping track of Bath. Entitled to the up most respect
in this field having contested listed and group races a few years
back, the trainer knows what it takes to win races here and with the
handicapper on turf still giving her a ideal chance on figures, she
rates as a interest in this race especially with a big winning
distance separating Il Castagno and herself and that rival is very
consistent on turf.
My Tissue Price – 10/1
8 – Il Castagno – Set a
furious pace when well beaten by Waterline Twenty and with the
likely run of the race this time could be regarded as a bit better
in terms of beating that rival. Recent form shows a mark of
consistence, which suggests he isn’t far of winning even though his
figures suggest he doesn’t like winning with one win in seventeen to
date. With a good course performance and handicapped weight to go
well and conditions and trip that suits he has much to offer today
for today’s race so has to rate as a possible without anything to
striking in his favour.
My Tissue Price – 9/1
9 – Shy Glance – Most
disappointing when last seen being beaten at odds on in a lower
grade handicap at Wolverhampton and has since been transferred out
of Alan Swimbank’s yard which is a big negative in my view. Still
lightly exposed for new trainer to work on having been kept to
minimum amount of runs as the trainer does with quite a few of his
runners. The last run there could have been excuses given the small
field, sharp trip and the fact the run may have came too soon after
the last one. Had a break since that run so better is expected and
the return to turf and a galloping mile is another positive. Its to
be seen where Shy Glance goes from now on under the new trainer and
hurdles look very much on the agenda and as someone who respects
Alan Swimbank’s work and judgement it is likely that Shy Glance was
regarded as not well handicapped for the flat game.
My Tissue Price – 10/1
10 – Just Dust – Fast ground
specialist as a 2yo and ran many creditable races including beating
Eddie Jock at Goodwood and running the free handicap runner up
Tobosa very close at Newmarket last year. Had many runs last season
as David Elsworth got much progression out of this horse who is I
remember correctly wasn’t the biggest of horse and it is likely that
the horse will struggle as a 3yo compared to the performances put up
as a 2yo. The transfer to the north it would be a surprise to see
Mick Easterby improve this horse further and being the higher rated
of the two 3yo in the field he will need to improve to hold the
likes of Soccerjackpot who was un raced last year and has made a
promising start to 3yo campaign. Improves for racing it is likely he
will come on for his first run this season.
My Tissue Price – 18/1
11- Neon Blue – From a stable
that is really struggling for form so far this season but Neon Blue
has started the season well with 3 good place efforts so far this
season and seems to be knocking on the door even though unlikely at
today’s weights getting his head in front. 8lbs higher then when
last successful he is looking handicapped up to what he is best
capable off and is well held at the weights with Will He Wish on the
9 1/4L defeat at Doncaster a couple years back and with limited
progression in that time it is unlikely to see a reversing in form
here. The claimer gets on well with him having placed 3 times in 4
rides on this horse and the conditions suit as well as being a past
course winner.
My Tissue Price – 14/1
12 – Webbow – Been of the
course since around this time last year in which he was showing a
fair level of form which would have had him of interest in and
around this level. Little unsure why the absence from the race
course and there has to be some question marks as to his fitness and
ability to handle quick ground. On breeding it isn’t totally known
that the quicker ground wont suit but quite a majority by Dr Devious
does handle give in the ground as a preference. Unexposed so there
isn’t reason to see a improvement in form this season given that
this will be only his fourth start on turf if you discount the debut
run in a national hunt bumper behind Alfir Frites.
My Tissue Price – 20/1
13 – Soccerjackpot – Looks a
stout stayer to my eye and can see this horse progressing like
Formal Decree did for this very trainer. Heritage handicaps won’t be
too far off I feel when given 10F and it was no surprise to see him
finally win when given a stiffer test of stamina at Beverley to the
Thirsk races. Easy winner that day the form has been franked and he
could make a mockery out of the handicap mark of 77. The price is
short enough as he is well regarded and Dean Mckewon rides many of
the stables progressive horses through out their younger
progression. Still young and potentially still learning about his
trade, these older more experienced horses may just expose a couple
of chinks in the armour. Harder to make any real big negative remark
about the horse other then the stiffer track or trip would help him.
My Tissue Price – 2/1
Verdict – A lot
revolves around the unexposed favourite who could be considerably
better then the current mark given to him by the handicapper and is
certain to win races this term if not today then certainly in the
future but his price of 6/4 in a handicap isn’t what I would
describe as a sporting price for quite a open handicap in which a
few others have been there and done it. Dium Mac, Waterline Twenty
and Shy Glance are value against the fav at their prices, while the
likes of Nanton are exposed but very well proven around here and
just lack that little bit of value in their price to be considered a
worthwhile price to play. Waterline Twenty is a surprising rag in
this race considering the form the horse has got in the book and
meets a rival who was well beaten by herself and is 3rd favourite
for this race.
Selection –
Waterline Twenty 0.5pt win @
33-1 (BF 79’s) & Dium Mac 0.5pt
@ 16-1 (BF 18’s)
Well Chief
|