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Champions League
Preview - 06 Nov 2007
Shakhtar Donetsk
v AC Milan
Matchday three saw an open game between these two sides at the
San Siro. A 4-1 victory was a welcome relief to Carlo Ancelotti
after a series of embarrassing home results in Serie A. Since then,
he has seen his side beaten by Roma and held to a goalless draw by
Torino. What is now obvious, is that this Milan side struggle badly
against closed defences. Fortunately for the Rossoneri, Shakhtar's
defence is anything but.
Despite the somewhat one-sided scoreline, Shakhtar actually
created a host of good opportunities at the San Siro, in what was an
extremely open game. It's tempting to get with the goals here,
however, whilst I think odds-against quotes about Over 2.5 are more
than fair, I'm a little put off by these comments from coach Mircea
Lupescu
"From the outset, we'll be much more careful than we were
there,"..."Both teams will play for victory, but if it's a draw I
suppose both sides will be satisfied," he mused.
Shakhtar were let down that night by their defending from set
pieces, and if they can tighten up in that department there's no
reason why they can't cause an upset tonight. On the flip side,
Milan have scored five in each of their last two Serie A away games,
which just proves how dangerous Kaka and co. can be if you give them
enough space.
From a 1X2 point of view, this game looks impossible to call.
Cristiano Lucarelli is sure to cause an ageing Milan defence
problems once more, but his teammates will need to step up to the
plate. Despite Lupescu's pre-game comments about adopting a
Celtic-like approach, it's highly debatable whether the Romanian
coach can send his side to defend as compactly as Gordon Strachan's
side did in matchday two. Curbing the attacking instincts of flair
midfielders such as Fernandinho and Ilsinho is easier said than
done.
As far as a value bet goes, have a pop at the aforementioned
Shakhtar midfielders to get on the scoresheet. Fernandinho has had
as many shots off-target in this season's campaign as any player.
His goal record in the Ukrainian League, suggests that he will find
his range at some point. Fellow Brazilian Ilsinho is also
overpriced, with three goals to his name domestically. With Milan
still vulnerable from wide positions, the Shakhtar wingers could be
the ones to grab the headlines. Lucarelli is the obvious goal threat
for the hosts, however the 10/1 about him netting first has
disappeared now, so it's probably best to give him a swerve.
Recommendations: 1/2 pt e/w
Fernandinho to score first @ 28/1. Bet365. 1/4pt e/w
Ilsinho to score first at 33/1
Betfred.
Ilunga
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