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European Football
Preview - 19 Oct 2007
Think cards not
goals.
Energie Cottbus host Duisburg in Setanta's Friday night
Bundesliga offering. Whilst hardly a fixture to set the pulses
racing, we could be in for a highly-charged affair, in what is
essentially a relegation six-pointer, even at this early stage of
the season.
Cottbus are a best-priced 11/10, which looks a touch skinny,
despite the visitors' selection problems. It's probably worth
swerving the main markets, and going at this from another angle.
One thing that stands out about these friday night affairs, is
the explosive nature of many of the games. None more so than the
recent fixture between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen. Referee
Petter Sippel handed out seven yellows and a red card. It should
have many more. In fact, the average bookings make-up for these
early-weekend fixtures is a shade over 64 so far this season. The
spread firms appear to be on the ball, however a couple of the fixed
odds firms look to be offering some decent value.
Duisburg are the perfect side for such an occasion. They've
played four away games this season, accumulating 18 yellows and one
red. They also had two men sent-off in their last game at home to
Werder Bremen. Even though the players in question - Georgiev and
Caceres - miss out through suspension, there are plenty of able
stand-ins, as well as some usual suspects in the likes of Grlic,
Tiffert and Ishiaku. This is a side that will fight for everything.
Cottbus are no angels themselves. They had a bookings average of
27.5 last season, and have begun this one in much the same vein.
The referee for the occasion is Peter Gagelmann, who averaged 47
bookings points a game last season. He is a little down on that
average so far this season, but it's early days and he can be a
strict disciplinarian when the occasion dictates.
In short, Bet365's Asian cards line of 4.75 looks too low. Five
bookings would give a half-stakes profit, with anything more copping
a full-payout.
As an aside, Sporting Index meanwhile appear to have
under-estimated the chances of a couple of Duisburg players finding
the net. Ivica Grlic is a goal scoring midfielder who has yet to
find the net this season. He has gone close on a few occasions, and
his career record suggests that he will open his account for the
season sooner rather than later. Fellow midfielder Mihai Tararache
is also under-priced in their player goal minutes market,
considering he is a known penalty-taker. Have a dabble at 3 and 4
respectively.
Energie Cottbus v Duisburg. Friday 19:30.
Recommendation: 4 pts Over 4.75
cards at 1.9. Bet365.
Ilunga
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